Gregmal

https://medium.com/@tepper_jonathan/ground-zero-when-the-cure-is-worse-than-the-disease-3c513d91393d "The policies responses in most countries are not targeted, fail to tackle the source of the crisis and will do little to contain future outbreaks. Millions of workers are paying for this calamitous misunderstanding with their livelihoods."

https://seekingalpha.com/filing/4928242 Total pieces of you know what. Reputation? Ha! We all know they dont celebrate Easter. They're the types many of the negative stereotypes are derived from.

I know you guys hate him, but this is satire you realize, right?

Yup, yup. This whole pandemic has become a convenient way to make(correct that, force) everyone to become more reliant on the government. Total power grab.

SMBs already got money. What are you arguing? That this type of discretionary authority on the local levels and lack of spine federally is awful and dangerous. We write checks to them but at the end of the day it will likely still leave them brutally short changed. For instance, what about people with shore rentals? Governor Ass Hat decides to close beaches for the season. Morgtage payment is $3500 a month, which gets deferred, but off season rent rate is $1500 a month. You just lost peak season which is $7,500 a month. Who's compensating you? There's a million seasonal businesses and employees in spots like this. Wedding photographer...Spring is huge? Banning all gatherings. Many of these business owners are self employed. They arent going to get wedding season 2020 back. At least give them the fighting chance. Shit, the economy stalled out as a business owner but I fought and clawed is a lot easier to take then, the governor said no and completely shut down my business even though it wasn't totally necessary.

So when safety comes to discretionary calls of elected officials, we hoot and whine about violations of freedom, ie the Patriot Act, because, you know, safety be damned they dont got no business reading my text messages, but we're willing to crush businesses and livelihoods in the blink of an eye over a virus thats effect on 95% of the population is negligible? Interesting.

Profiteering? You mean running their business the same as they had the past 30+ years? Letting their employees earn a wage(and a good one at that as grateful patrons were tipping insane because they appreciated have this business open)? They arent contributing to the spread of anything. They're following rules and regs with regard to safety. They are meeting a demand(without raising prices). This is profiteering? You think the best measure to stay safe is to stay home? The YOU stay home. You have the right to make that choice. Dictating to others and ruining millions of lives in the process is disgustingly anti-American in every way imaginable. The amount of lives and businesses ruined because of this will greatly exceed that of the virus, which wouldn't you know, seem on pace to resemble a bad year of the flu! Its ironic, but the reason Trump supporters loved Trump was his ability to say F you liberal media. F you critics. And I guarantee the reason he is standing for this nonsense is because he doesnt have the spine to call out state governors and deal with the media heat he'd get. Because if he did, he'd have to take responsibility for the outcome. Which, as Ive said all along, doesnt really have anything to do with him since he isn't really responsible for the decisions being made. Personally, the steps I take, are the same I took in January and February. Maintain a little distance, wash my hands, use common sense. Works fine. Hiding in a box seems to work for others. Many different ways to skin a cat.

How long really shouldn't matter(although now it does). America is about freedoms and businesses and the people risking their lives(even before covid19) to show up to work every day should be free to make that choice. The government stole that from businesses and their employees. All the liberals consistently do is whine and make up fake bs about Trump the dictator, Trump the swamp creature, but overseeing and allowing state governors to basically commander peoples rights is literally the worst display of Communist and dictator like tactics this country has ever seen. I used to frequent a small Bergen County deli in Paramus. This place was the last to shut down in Bergen County. They stayed open and fought and at one point the owner said they were doing 300% more business because they were one of the few ones open during the crazy stretch. The governor literally forced them to send their employees home and shut the doors. That is astoundingly anti American and 100% where the fault lies at Trumps feet. Give people the choice to chose the fate of their business, their employees, etc. Right thing to do is close? OK, make your choice and live with it. Want to stay open? Have the employee support to do so? Ok, go get em. And live with it.

This whole episode has been an insiders wet dream. 2008/09 no one really knew what was going on. From China initially hiding this until after their New Year parties, to the congressional hearings in Jan/Feb, to the orchestrated shut downs, now with the stimulus, and then reopening, and yes, an eventual infrastructure or further stimulus bill, if you are in the loop this time around, its much easier than ever before.

Boris Johnson was a big fan of heard immunity for the UK and wanted to get it done as fast as possible. You want to ask him about his thoughts on the subject again? He got sick.. wasn't that the point?

Dont worry, congress will do plenty. As long as they can trade ahead of it. I heard Kelly Blowfer is buying X and EXP... get ready for an infrastructure bill! *(just kidding about individual stock names)

After a good deal more reflection and analysis I think it is only fair for the government to pick up the tab(as it is doing) for the small businesses and people displaced by this. The reason being, is that everything was humming along just fine until THEY forced, as in deliberately compelled people to stay home and businesses to shutter. The socialists will call foul(or promote the now popular theme "capitalists want bailouts", but giving out freebies to those who are incapable, lazy, or incompetent, during times where the free market is prevailing, is vastly different than telling businesses "you have to close your doors". Its very similar to the logic behind the FNMA thesis. The government can not take control without compensation. In a lot of ways, I think Trump allowing this is a major failure of his. Let people live their lives and take their own risks. Open the economy up, and let people make their own choices. Oil, is a different story. But small business or restaurant thats been open for 40 years shuttering because the government imposes lockdowns of questionable constitutional legitimacy? The government should be on the hook for the cost of that business and the wages of it's employees, or at least, bridging the gap until those associated are whole again.

Why not just go all out? https://www.pinterest.com/pin/228487381080921624/?d=t&mt=login

Wasn't it just weeks ago when everyone got super excited because management bought some stock? My general rule of thumb is to tread very, very carefully with anything(excluding real estate companies obviously) that has >50% of its EV in the debt column. And never touch anything where its greater than 75%. If you start with that sort of capital structure handicap, you're behind the ball. If you dont start there, and end up like that, then you're obviously doing a pretty shitty job or the business just sucks. At $6 or whatever when management was buying, this was what? 90% debt on the EV side? Why even bother? You rarely hear of companies who's capital structure consists of 100% equity ending up like this...

As long as people's agendas dictate what stories get told, nothing will change. WHO is a bs organization, funded by handouts and run by bureaucrats. They probably mean well, but also fail on the same levels most other similarly run and structured organizations do.

I would look at the occupancy rate, sure. But more specifically, what they are doing to get there? A while ago, SELF CEO was telling me a story about one of their acquired properties and how they instantaneously raised occupancy more than 10%. Prior to the deal, they asked the owner if he advertised. The guy defeatedly said, "yea", and pulled a Yellow Pages book out showing their ads. They acquired the property and bought some ads on Google and in months had results.

I agree the rally was an emotional one, but so was the sell off. Somewhere in between, it’ll settle, making adjustments for virus risks as well as QE Infinity and a Fed that has basically said it will print us out of this. Well, maybe not everyone, but folks with assets...

If it is 3-6 months or 12-18, it is still a short term event. Just avoid things susceptible to permanent impairments. Even better, buy durable businesses that get stronger during times like this. I've taken gains, but its just to manage the margin and rebalance.

How much confidence do you have that this is a 3-6 month ordeal, and then we're back to the same level of economic activity as we were previously? Seems like the focus is exclusively on the 1st level impact of the virus -- people seem to think once the shutdowns end and the virus is under control that the economy snaps back to its previous level. Is it crazy to think that some portion of the newly unemployed will stay that way? Once a business pulls costs out, it's not just a lever they can flip to restore the company back to the state they were in 6 months prior. Not to mention that unemployment is an event that has cascading effects on personal consumption for subsequent months or years. And that's all just the virus related stuff -- does no one remember what the oil price crash did to the economy just on it's own in 2015 and 2016? It basically blew apart our entire industrial market for 18 months. And the state of the energy market today is arguably worse even if demand does recover. Seems insane to me that people are glossing over all this stuff. The focus is so myopic -- "hey, the virus numbers are getting better! buy stocks!" The point is bigger picture. You just saw a premium company like SBUX drop 50% on a broader market correction. If you have always admired to the company but never owned it, do you need to see anything else?? SBUX isn't going out of business, and the main reason for multiple contraction, secular decline or specific and likely permanent business impairment doesnt apply here. Study major market drops. You can pretty much, universally, without knowing anything else, see that 50% declines in premium businesses is ALWAYS a buying opportunity. The problem for most, is that when these big drops occur, they are too busy playing into their preconceived biases and going "OMG I KNEW IT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN!!!" Many times even, there s also "its still got further to go! because now I'm right and its going to go where "I" thought all along!" Wrong. Theres several threads here that perfectly display this behavior during the recent crash. I remember vividly early in my career seeing many do this when NFLX went from 300 to 50. I bought at $80 and laughed at them and guess who made money? I own 0 SBUX. But its a great business and I continue to be amazed at how people willfully miss the forest for the trees because they get too caught up in the short term. Such as 3-6-12 months.

Is this your first time buying puts on dead companies? I've done so in the past, hilariously usually breaking even. I've had companies technically in BK with 100s of millions in equity value, buying 6 month puts and having them breakeven. It can be infuriating. It depends. On things too obvious straight short with some way out the money calls is how I do it. BURL is(regardless of eventual outcome) a beautiful trade because it’s off the radar.

I actually agree 100% with alwaysdrawing. I’ll admit I was skeptical as his posts originally seemed sensational, but his detail given on the strategy is money. Has saved me big time on the draw down with certain names. It’s a value investors market. Hold longs that will weather the storm and buy insurance on the stuff that can’t hold fort for a few months at minimal outlays with large payoffs

Yea they'll just ask for 3% of your capital. Probably EVERY year...

Conversely you could backfill the question. What would cause a premier market darling like SBUX to get halved and then settled 30% off its highs? A quarter or two of sales 50% lower and uncertainty into year end. Makes a little more sense like that. Does this really deserve to lose 50-70% of its value because of a year long disruption? Because outside of that, its hard to see how people are "more" bearish given the declines already happened. Arguing about the multiple is stupid, because the multiple before was high, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a high multiple on both peak and trough. Could always be wrong though.

I think these updates are helpful through trying to figure out what extent this stuff is baked into expectations. MCD posted horrible projections, market shrugged it off. SBUX just said sales halved and recovery could take til end of year...-2%

So the assumption is what? The Ackman trade? Didn’t really see anything in the article detailing any specific trade. Just the same type of index and hedge stuff that’s been floating around like spam on twitter lately. Actually after checking, it’s from the same dude who is responsible for a lot of those tweets. This stuff is always cool but often it’s either inaccessible to most investors(the instruments to put these trades on) or its some wild awkward looking angle some guy sees that make him look genius when otherwise he s out to lunch. Kind of like John Paulson. Greatest trade ever and then lost most of his fund in an easy to see bull market over the next decade.