Gregmal

Because 1) credit scores can be repaired 2) they really only matter in ranges, IE for 90% of shit a 490 and a 570 are the same, so is a 740 and a 800, managing a credit score is really only something neurotic rich people fixate on. 3) no one cares, and no application for anything to my knowledge, asks you "what was the lowest your credit score has ever been" or "3 years ago, what was your FICO" I know a few people whom had abysmal credit scores, starting turning things around, paid a consultant to repair their scores, got current and stayed current for a few months, and went from mid 500s to high 600s/low 700s. They are easy to manipulate.

Reinvesting them in NYC RE companies

There are plenty of critical life situations, such as job applications, mortgage/rental application, etc, where they very clearly ask you things like "have you ever been charged with a felony, have you ever declared bankruptcy"... worrying about a credit score, I agree, is stupid. Worrying about running into other problems is wise though. For instance, I won't touch a renter who has filed bankruptcy. I will on a case by case basis overlook a shitty credit score.

Yea....SAM is basically a value short. I am typically against these, however cash is trash and I want to remain invested in ideas I think are compelling on the long side. So I'm looking for a lot of "if this, then that" ideas. If this is bad economically, then that happens. SAM is a good shot at downside protection, if things go south. Either via sales declines or multiple contraction.

I hate the exec comp here. Nothing more to really add there. They are overpaid. Its hard to find reasonably comped RE executives in the public universe. My biggest gripe about investing there. Theyre all overpaid. On the additional execs, they did mention on the call we will have a lot more clarity there shortly. If this were 50-100% higher, it would be a bigger issue for me. At least right now, I can tell myself they may have earned they pay(paid for by shareholders who owned this at twice the current price) by sticking to their guns and keeping the company in tip top financial shape. How many companies were aggressively buying back mid single digit %s of their stock between 3/1-4/20?

Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...

True dat. Its funny. Some are still debating whether March was really throw darts at a board territory or not. Newsflash, with some of these NYRE plays, you are still in throw darts at a board territory. There's only nothing to invest in right now if you arent willing to invest in things worth investing in. Thats my big insight for the day.

Agreed there are "better", "shinier" and more "desirable" locations out there. The buildings are for the most part on the older side. I like one of a kind assets, and there's only one Empire State Building. The other buildings while older to me are interchangeable with a lot else of what I own or have looked at. I also think the capital allocation here is stellar. How many guys, cool kids or not, get on an analyst call and basically say "see you dumb fuck this is why I had all that cash when you criticized me, and now we're buying hand over first while everyone else is caught with their pants down"... Buybacks, plus dividends, plus an unequivocal discount to NAV is one of my favorite formulas. I like SPG, I like VNO, HHC, the PGRE idea is a good one as well. To a degree they are all tied to the same recovery. Some in different ways than others. VNO has the best assets, they also have the most. The advantage to me with this much of a discount and a smaller company, is this. How do you ultimately solve the discount to NAV? By monetizing assets. VNO and SPG will have to sell a lot more assets to move the needle, and even then, if they are sellers who is the buyer? Whereas these little old smallco's(ESRT, PGRE, FRPH, HHC) are small and simple enough that they can pull an asset out of their ass and immediately rerate. At $8 a share, I dont think you need anything other than Father Time to make money here as things normalize. This goes for all the NYC RE names. But having another way to win works for me as well. Its similar to why I own MSGN vs SBGI. Sure I like RSN's. They are both "cheap". But if I am wrong monetizing one or two assets its a much easier bailout scenario than running some long arduous process for dozens of them. Provided you dont buy at a premium to NAV or see significant mismanagement, you should do OK. Capital allocation is huge and I like what these guys have done. Much better than a company like HHC which, despite having massively superior assets, has destroyed a lot of value the past year; not even factoring in the coronavirus issues.

Handshaking is not a issue for you in the short term? Probably prefer the chest bump personally...

Personally, the leg down was like nothing we've seen before. There was absolutely forced selling, margin selling, liquidity gaps, etc. I would not expect to see this type of thing again. I agree the market appears strange here. I also think there's stuff that contributes to "the index" that is insanely cheap, such as real estate. As a whole though, I would think if we are a bit(or a lot) too optimistic in terms of whats priced in, it will be a gradual grind lower, rather than the floor falling out of everything again. In other words, a stock pickers market. I am watching this week carefully as a lot of the earnings will be coming in from the hardest hit companies. Ford(I am short this) today for instance is one of them. How the market reacts to these earnings IMO should give us a decent read on whats "priced in" or not.

I believe the number of April rents if including deposits was mentioned to be ~85%. As to the cash flows, there has been some redevelopment cost as well as a deliberate effort in some cases to run off congregants of smaller tenants hoping to then release to a single larger one. This can naturally cause somewhat extended drags on the occupancy rates and NOI, but will result in a higher quality lease. There's currently about 500k sf of which 30% is in the ES for development. I think part of the upside is the $40M or so free rent burn off and commencement thru YE 21. Over the past several years, as they've made some improvements, you've had the double whack of TI(cost) and free rent period, and in some cases, reimbursements but I haven't gotten an idea yet the degree to which those would be consistent or one off. You also have existing tenant expansion and improvements which can mask some of the future figure. The LinkedIn expansion is a good example of this. Typically, their lease spreads have been decent. The one thing I dont care for is that they of course pay themselves quite handsomely. But whatever. At $8 per share you live with that. Below was a great snippet from the recent earnings call For years I have said repeatedly, that we would maintain the balance sheet to execute our strategy and provide for future growth. During that period, we have been criticized for too much cash on our balance sheet too low leverage failure to repurchase stock. And failure to buy at what we have repeatedly said we thought was a market top. We have avoided exposure to FADs like co-working and short-term leases. As of the quarter end we held over $1 billion in cash on hand. Commenced in early March and through April 22 we purchased 8.5 million shares at a weighted average price of $9.37 per share totaling $79.8 million in aggregate.

Dont be mad Radman. Some of us saw this was a compensation scheme and likely to end badly for shareholders, and moved on. Others, I guess, wanted to be value investors or something. I mean even now, how atrocious is it that these guys need to again get on their knees and ask permission from the UAW just to re-open? This is just a bad business, run by incompetents, horse collared by corrupt unions, and now, bag holders dont even get their precious dividend after being told to ignore the putrid performance this past decade because at least the balance sheet was robust....Ooops. Live and learn, dont hate the player, hate the game is the saying, I believe.

Read Pupils Paramount write up, and was inspired to put this one out there. Refer to the company overview and investor presentation for references: http://investors.empirestaterealtytrust.com/Cache/IRCache/abcb17e3-e55e-b7f8-7448-2cc6369d513f.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=abcb17e3-e55e-b7f8-7448-2cc6369d513f&iid=4313470 http://investors.empirestaterealtytrust.com/Presentations Check out most recent 4/22/20 presentation But this one is somewhat simple and the timing is really the driver as all these things from VNO down have been "reset". Headlined by legendary NYC RE investor Peter Malkin, this one was long fought in terms of even getting to be public as the convoluted ownership group feared wild fluctuations in the stock market(and thus their holdings) like we have just recently seen. So, to the new investor, here is your chance. https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/05/29/i-p-o-for-empire-state-building-gets-shareholder-backing/ You've got a healthy balance sheet, currently net debt to EV is ~35%, more importantly average maturity is more than 7 years out and 80% of the portfolio unencumbered A few preferred/OP issues out there. A month or so ago there was a thread asking "who is buying back stock right now"/ these guys were, and big time, acquiring north of 4% outstanding at an average price below $10. Tenant roster is robust, highlighted by EY, Legg Mason, LinkedIn, IPG, and PartnerRE Rent collected for April was about 70%, surprisingly strong for a city that was shut What I am attracted to here is yes the namesake trophy asset, but further, The Observatory, which may single handedly be one of the greatest income generating assets of all time. Its the commercial equivalent to letting people pay you to walk around your attic and then on the way out charging them $25 for a shitty $3 ceramic mug. There is again a simplicity with the assets here, something I tend to favor over gargantuans with so many properties and moving parts that it becomes impossible to stay on top of the day to day. Other notable assets include locations at Herald's Sq, Grand Central Terminal, and a slew of other mid town assets along with a few properties in Westchester and CT The company is well managed and has a track record that allows me to feel comforted that they are not a liability here. You really dont need geniuses to do well in these types of assets, you just need to avoid hucksters who will rob you. I was very impressed with the conservative nature of the COVID impact assumptions and timelines they gave on normalization. Despite this, the company continues to pay its regular dividends, repurchase shares, and explore value enhancing redevelopment opportunities. Much of this is linked above and was touched on with the most recent call, I am just lazy and highlighting right now. I have long tracked this asset but never felt the desire to own it at the $15-$20 price range its traded at since coming public. But here, provided you think that things eventually normalize over the next 2-3 years, it's a simple, conservative shot at 50-100% upside not including dividends and repurchases made along the way. I find it difficult to envision losing money on ESRT @ $8 per share.

What? Not happy with what you're getting out of the $20M a year CEO? Barra proven to be very much the dimwit type that came before her.

Swapped a smidge of FRPH into ESRT.

Peter, I hope you are not an investor in the name. I have tracked SPAC for a decade now and used to own them as a cash alternative. You will find some of the most mis-aligned interest in this category. They have every incentive to do a deal without regards to quality. As a category, this is not a good space to hunt for value. Put this thinking in reverse. SPACs(post deal) are great investments. Run screens, track deals, follow categories and sectors that you instantaneously hate, get excited about ones with 18 month terms that find deals in month 17....wait, and your candidate list of potential shorts will be much greater.

As a real estate junky, ESRT looks like its got a lot of free call options at this valuation. Tremendously positioned on the balance sheet side of things as well. No major maturities for a while either.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3564584-gm-suspends-dividend-buybacks-takes-liquidity-actions Mary's work on the fortress balance sheet is clearly paying dividends! https://seekingalpha.com/news/3564584-gm-suspends-dividend-buybacks-takes-liquidity-actions Looks like she was swimming in the nude..

Yea I know as early as December/January(before this whole shitshow started) they were bringing these brands out, but the shelf space was confined to that of a niche product. My suspicion, is, knowing from stupid small chat over the years with a few different managers at these places, how data driven they are, that they'll basically push until it's maxed. So effectively accrete towards being an Aldi or whatever to the greatest extent they can, without comprising other sales. Certain things it's just inevitable, even outside of a recessions. Who is paying $4.49 for 14 oz of Frosted Flakes when generic store brand is $1.79 for 24oz? Or $2.99 for hot dog buns vs .99c? Can of corn? $1.59 vs .67c? There are a few exceptions, for instance I'd never buy store brand shredded cheese. Some of them you can legit microwave for 10 minutes and see no difference in it. I think they key with store brands is to make it acceptable to buy as a consumer. The decision is rather obvious, but at the same time people dont want to feel like total cheapskates or losers not buying "Kraft Mac and Cheese" just to save 49c. The redesign, I agree is much better. Target also did a good job with this. This virus may have even been a perfect catalyst as with shortages everywhere, people are forced to buy the store brands, and see that they are actually quite good. The fear with a lot of supermarkets for years has been this Aldi threat and it seems at least as far as I can tell that the Shop Rite companies are stealthy transforming their company without missing a beat. Compared to another public company like Weis who just sits there holding price and banking on perpetual indifference. I am just amazed at how well they've stayed stocked and how the stores are always full. I have all but stopped going to the Stop N Shop by me as its been perpetually barren for weeks now. The employees there seem disgruntled as well, whereas the Shop Rites I see, its enthusiastic young kids working up front and then the lifers doing produce/dairy/meats/etc and interesting to note, within the various franchises, many actually work at multiple stores. IE Mon-Wed at location A, Fri-Sat location C; they are actively shifted based on demand, just another sign of a very well and actively managed establishment. Some of these are Village stores and some of them are Ronetco stores, but from what I can tell, they all kind of work together.

Ive interestingly observed that Shop Rite brand products, particularly Bowl & Basket are making massive gains in terms of shelf space. This is not just one store, its across the board including a couple Village locations. Obviously demand is there, but also interesting is that they are keeping up with that demand, whereas most other brands go through long stretches of depletion. For instance, the potato chips and pretzels, back in February had about the same representation as Herrs. Now only Frito Lay has more space. But Frito Lay asp is about $3.99, Bowl & Basket, $1.29. Soup, Campell's is $1.89, SR is $0.88. Bread, Freihofer is $3.49, Pepperidge Farm $3.99, Bowl & Basket $0.99-$1.39, English Muffins, Thomas's $4.49, SR 2/$3. It's really quite remarkable and there is not much quality drop off.

Ive done a little bit here and one easy way to avoid many of the headaches is to mandate a cosigner and look for folks who have their expenses paid for by others, IE parents or grants, etc. That isn't to say you won't have problems. Definitely will have your fair share of drywall repairs and broken windows, but thats not too bad when mom and dad guarantee the repair at a 30% markup! Its like allowing pets with residential. First thought is that it ruins the floors and makes the unit stink. But once you realize you can charge 5% more per month, charge one time pet fee, take an extra security deposit, and more or less make back the cost of a new floor(typically carpet) in 18-24 months plus ALWAYS have a fully paid for thorough deep cleaning when the pet lover exits... its a good problem to have.

This is one I am unsure about too. Th NY antibody study with a 21% positive rate in NYC let’s me believe, that there will be too many active cases to prevent further spreading regardless of what we do with test and trace. The testing is probably capacity is probably 2 order of magnitude too lower to test most people if we open the economy, which we have to do no matter what, before the vaccine is a factor in 18 month (best case). So in opinion this means that we go down the path of heard immunity, at least in bigger cities, but most likely everywhere unless we constrain movement between states or even cities for 18 month. Now heard immunity or vaccines may or may not even exist or be feasible, but no matter, virtually everyone just isn’t get the virus in this case sooner or later. I would like hear different viewpoints on how we still contain this using test and trace from out current starting point of test capacity and the likely opening of the economy in May or early June. Also, I would like to hear if anyone thinks that schools can be closed for 18 month. Opening up a school (which can be staggered into kindergartens, elementary school etc) will simultaneously expose a large number of people to the virus and most likely create a significant spike in cases, no matter how we do it. Can we keep them closed? Should we? I don’t think we can, but others may have a different viewpoint. If schools opened, would you send your kid to school? This is an interesting cog IMO. Many people need schools to be open in order to go back to work. They certainly, after weeks/months of financial drain, dont want to be paying for daycare. How many of those people dont feel comfortable sending their kids back to school even if it is an option? The number is greater than zero and could contribute to the slow reopening. Do you set up a nurse with a thermometer next to the metal detectors as kids enter?

Can you name your top 3-5 that fit this description? Sorry!. Do your own DD SD All for keeping illiquid ideas to yourself, but I find it odd that you won’t throw out at least one name. Where are these mythical best of breed companies cutting their dividends and trading at prices which will allow for a double or tripling to normalization? Could care less. You have a brain, use it ;) SD The ACWI quality index is down 15% through March 31 and many large cap US tech stocks are up year to date. In using my incapable brain, I am unable to identify “a great many” of “best of breed” companies that fit your description (or one for that matter). I can only conclude that you either A) are much better at sourcing ideas (hence my request for examples) B) have a different definition of “best of breed” C) are making a statement not based in fact Or maybe my brain just doesn’t work. You could probably narrow down candidates. Scan for anyone, period, who's cut a dividend between, say 2/1/20 and now. Scan should only include companies that still pay dividends and maybe extend the search range from the 50-67% SD mentioned, to 40-80% cuts. Out of that entire universe, these best of breed would have to be in there, if they exist. At first I thought his do you own DD was a tongue in cheek reference to Dupont, but it doesnt fit the profile either. If I had to make an educated guess, SD is probably referring to some energy companies. Runner up guess would be mortgage servicers. The former I have little interest in, the later may be something special as servicers IMO have a much easier path to "return to normal" than oil stocks.

A bit of cherry-picking. In the same thread: Nostromo26 "Why did you stop plotting deaths on the 20th? Daily deaths haven't gone down since then. Here's a chart updated through 4/25." But regardless, this model predicts that the number of deaths would be close to 0 by July... I guess we will start counting deaths like China at that point. This is whats known as straw grabbing from Dalal "I commit to nothing" Trump. Notice his primary information source has now shifted down "the curve", going from the almighty and highly reliable Twitter to Reddit! Another interesting data point Italy- population 60M, cases 195k, deaths 26k NYC- population 8M, cases 155k, deaths 12k Rest of US- population 320M, cases 800k, deaths 42k So maybe the fear peddling Dalal at the least needs to revise his model in order to hope next time to "be like Italy" rather than the negative implications continuously drawn about "being the next Italy". As the facts show, NY is really the only massive, massive, negative outlier. Perhaps Dr. Dalal should spend more time doing this job and less time worrying about playing politics on message boards...

Well, I was curious to see if it was defended, or denied. Why do we need proof to label Biden a rapist but we dont for Trump? Funny how that works isn't it? Otherwise, without the burden of proof, I think a rational man can see both are similar. Trump is just the abusive, entitled boyfriend who constantly cheats and views women as possessions. Biden is the creepy best friend whom she runs to as the "shoulder to cry on" when abusing entitled bf hurts her. Gladly letting her cry on his shoulder as he looks down her shirt and gets semi hard from the female attention, wishing all along he was the bf who gets all the ass. They are both clearly dirtbags when it comes to women. Trump inherited dads fortune, Joe spent his life taking from taxpayers. They both spent(and spend) 90% of their time misleading people and promising things they knew they may or may not be able to deliver in order to get what they want. Both have entitled dipshit kids living off dad's reputation. To be fair, at least the arrogant and entitled Trump kids seem otherwise pretty ok. I've known a ton of kids like that and believe me, they can turn out a lot worse then just being rich airheads and pompous douches....they turn out to be...like Hunter Biden.. I hope they have the debates. It will be absolutely glorious seeing these two go at it. There are many similarities.