Castanza

So when a pension fund or insurance company has a 5 or 10 year US government bond mature their proceeds are going to end up on the Fed’s balance sheet? My comment was aimed at private organization who currently own US government bonds. As these bonds mature and these organization re-deploy where will it go? Demand will increase for some asset classes. I saw some Ohio pension funds allocating north of 5% to gold. I think historically these positions are 2% on average. Not necessarily meaningful I guess

What ever happened to flatten the curve? I guess it was just an infinite limit asymptote.

NYC where the government won’t let people work. There are external factors preventing individuals from upholding their contracts. Buying an expensive car and then deciding you don’t want it anymore and letting it default is not the same thing. All these situations can be summed up by a simple phrase. “Voluntary Association”. Your grandma entered into a contract willingly. Solution, pay off the loan for her and have your grandma pay you $100 a month interest free until her debt is paid off (assuming you can afford this). Everyone is happy and a lesson is still learned.

Exactly. Let her default if she wants, those who are morally offended should redirect their outrage at more impactful targets rather than an old lady who owes 9k on an overpriced car. Two wrong's don't make a right.

You know, I've never tried that. I'm sure my wife would kill me if I had a stew pot boiling fresh deer bones in the kitchen for hours on end. If I end up butchering my own deer this year I'll give it a try, perhaps outside. If I get sick I'm blaming you ;D

This comes across like ordering a nice steak, eating most of it, sending it back; and then refusing to pay for it. https://www.thoughtco.com/the-whistle-by-benjamin-franklin-1688774

Cardio is super helpful for me for de-stressing improving sleep. You should try hitting a heavy bag. Great stress relief and a good workout. Easy enough to find one for $50 on Facebook marketplace. Brain dumps also work well for me if I'm feeling overwhelmed. It's a simple trick but writing down everything that is on your mind, work and non-work related sort of "cleans up the hard drive". At least that's my perspective on it. Helps me stay organized and focus in on objectives with prioritization. Does hunting help as well? For the brain dump, I just grab a scratch pad and write down anything on my mind in bullet points. Not just the honey do list either. Any random thoughts you have, conversation reflections, etc. I guess you could use whatever format you want though. Hunting and simply getting out in nature (at least for me) is always the best stress relief. Humans add stress, it’s nice to escape all that for a bit. I enjoy hunting, but it’s certainly not for everyone. Although, I do know quite a few guys who hunt but never seem to get anything. For them we’ll just call it “hunting” as they most likely just fall asleep in their stand. Edit: my final bit of advice would be the Tomato timer app. I’ve been using it the past few months in my afternoons. Staying well hydrated is also a big thing.

Cardio is super helpful for me for de-stressing improving sleep. You should try hitting a heavy bag. Great stress relief and a good workout. Easy enough to find one for $50 on Facebook marketplace. Brain dumps also work well for me if I'm feeling overwhelmed. It's a simple trick but writing down everything that is on your mind, work and non-work related sort of "cleans up the hard drive". At least that's my perspective on it. Helps me stay organized and focus in on objectives with prioritization.

This is exactly why scaling any operation here is hard. Proprietary datasets that are not clean, are relatively quite small as compared to what google or facebook collects, and are not a good fit for data hungry algorithms. Unlike Google for instance that can combine massive datasets because there are no legal hurdles, Palantir cannot use US govt (say CIA) data and merge it with UK's MI5 data. Even within US there are laws governing what govt can collect and merge that are hurdles. So it is not a pure play consumer tech growth company. Valuation now will matter because it may never get to the same scale/size. As for big data as edge there is a joke someone posted a while back - "Big data is like teenage sex: everyone talks about it, nobody really knows how to do it, everyone thinks everyone else is doing it, so everyone claims they are doing it..." I would say IBM did not fail, infact even though they have average product they still had govt contracts and are the incumbent. Thus the barrier was for Palantir not IBM. I would definitely give it to Palantir for shaking the incumbency (al la SpaceX). However, road forward is not clear cut for me because unlike SpaceX where we know they are ahead in technology, I have no way to judge Palantir's edge regarding their tech stack. All modern tools do that and this is not an edge that IBM cannot replicate. API's are fairly well understood for most of the connectors and if anything IBM has an edge with more hands on deck to keep adding new connectors. See Tableau's list for example - https://help.tableau.com/current/pro/desktop/en-us/exampleconnections_overview.htm Yeah, I agree. But to me software with consulting has limited market size and scalability, especially if the focus is narrow right now to govt contracts. IBM is into similar business but has tenticles into a lot of market segments (banking/financials, govt, shipping and logistics, healthcare etc etc). Palantir already failed trying to gain traction in a bigger financial market. The question is how much more is the market size for them and what does current valuation already reflect. "Unlike Google for instance that can combine massive datasets because there are no legal hurdles, Palantir cannot use US govt (say CIA) data and merge it with UK's MI5 data" Aren't you comparing two different data sets/sectors here? If Palantir is also focusing on the commercial side then they should be able to share that data just as easily as GOOG if there is no tie to government agencies. FWIW: I have a good friend who works at the NSA. I'll try to pick his brain if he has any experience with this product.

CMCSA wish I got in sooner, but it's still cheap

I will disagree with the comparative usefulness quote. Both of them are equally useless (or only sometimes useful). Marketing in these cases always wins. And Palantir is good marketing machine of Silicon Valley and has a decent chance of success despite the shortcomings. No opinion on valuation, do not know enough about potential TAM and their technology stack. For specialized field like data mining in defense this quote from the nymagzine is spot on - “Here’s the dirty secret of all of these data-analytics solutions,” a former Pentagon research manager told me. “They all claim to take these disparate data sources and put them together and then discover these amazing correlations between variables. But the problem is that all of these data sets are terrible. They’re dirty.” Many types of information, after all, are gathered and processed by humans. It may be entered inconsistently or provided in wildly different formats or riddled with inaccuracies. It’s messy, like the real world it reflects and records, and it doesn’t always fit into software with any sort of mathematical precision." I can tell you this is identical to amazing promises made by software tools in pharma-biotech. Since human genome was sequenced in 2000, claims abound that software with AI capabilities will put data from genetics, protein, RNA, cytokines, metabolites etc together and provide insights in an automated fashion. Nothing like that has happened so far. But of-course many companies (or their management) have made money selling the dream during this time. Sure, but can you point to anyone who has truly "clean" data set inputs? It's one thing to point out an issue with a specific approach. But this is more of an industry wide issue, and I think you fairly point this out. Regardless of issues (in the data industry), every company (customer) is looking for an edge in this hyper competitive business world; and big data is on the forefront of this.

Didn't Ted Kaczynski pretty much predict all of this? Whenever someone with a high IQ does something completely insane to point something out I think it's worth paying attention to. Even if it's handled in the complete wrong way. Has anyone ever looked at getting one of these? https://huckberry.com/store/light/category/p/62691-light-phone-ii-distraction-free-cell-phone?htm_adsource=search&htm_admedium=googlep&htm_adcampaign=search-dsa-acquisition&htm_adcontent=acquisition&gclid=CjwKCAjwiOv7BRBREiwAXHbv3FLER4L71Qf04ZiKN0ftQI8OPFcSpnCOyY2YFr9yPcIWGnyrnZDAvxoCIFEQAvD_BwE

How are these not comparable? I would argue both Lucid and NIO are more luxurious than Tesla as well. NIO ES6 Price: 52k starting Range: 379m 0-60mph: 4.7s Tesla X Price: 80k starting Range: 351m 0-60mph: 2.6s __________________________ Lucid Air Price: 80k starting Range: 517m 0-60: 2.5s Tesla S Price: 74k starting Range: 402m 0-60: 2.3s __________________________ Li Auto also looks interesting (https://www.lixiang.com/) Sorry for not responding earlier. I would also include MY in the comparison which is sold in the US for $43,000 or so after credits. The ES6 I believe has a starting range closer to 260 miles compared to MY's 316. I agree that Lucid seems like a great car and good branding that is its to lose, but the right comparison would be with a Model S Plaid. I think it's a question of manufacturing scale: if and when Nio can sell in the US at a scale threatening Tesla, Tesla will be in a position to further cut costs and reach a much larger market Do NIO and Lucid have manufacturing capabilities? Are these products that can be produced and sold yet? Are people buying these right now and driving them? I see Teslas everywhere, I've never seen one of those. Designing a product is hard, actually building it at scale is even harder. I'll say the same thing I've been saying for years, I'll believe the theory that Tesla has competitors when I see it. So far I haven't. I do however think it will eventually have competition and that it will come from new companies (maybe Nio and Lucid?), but few, if any, traditional car companies will make the transition until it is too late. NIO has been ramping up production in China and they are selling well. They are looking to enter the EU market soon. Lucid has a manufacturing fascility and the latest I've heard on them is they are looking to pump out cars come 2021.

Are you talking about a 401k?

10 years ago they sold hundreds of cars a year of one model based on a Lotus, give them a little time to build a line up. Tesla is usually accused of moving too fast, not too slowly.. But all BMWs look like BMWs, all Porsches look like Porsches. If what you have is desirable, it's not too much of a problem. If you have more commodity products, then it helps to try to make a zillion variations and try to see what sticks or what may fills a niche. Same for iPhones vs Android phones. No offense but you still haven't pointed out this "moat" that exists. If Tesla look like Tesla and BMWs look like BMWs then one can only conclude that NIOs will look like NIOs. I fail to see how that's a moat as it's completely subjective to the buyer. Are you really arguing that Tesla found some secret sauce in looks? I mean I guess it's possible.....Apple defends their position party due to aesthetics. But when looking at a Tesla they really aren't all that special looking inside and out. When it comes to things like the Cyber truck, I will be willing to bet the Electric F150 outsells it because it looks like a traditional truck. I know a lot of blue collar workers who are excited about the eF150 and also think the Cyber Truck looks god awful. I hope Tesla changes that design up a lot. I don't know if they have a moat. But they're better and faster than the competition right now, and are much better at software and fast iteration, so until I see someone catching up, they're in a good position to keep their brand premium and stand out from the crowd. I don't think success for Tesla means outselling everybody else and owning the car market. Musk himself would be quite happy if everybody else sold a ton of EVs. I think they can probably carve out a successful niche and do quite well at it. Apple's moat is software and culture, not aesthetics. Well you suggested they do have a moat because you said “people are missing all of the unquantifiable things that customers want”. What are those things? And Apple absolutely can attribute part of their most to aesthetics. Jobs harped on appearance and not just being another “white box”. That was something he refused to leave out of the Apple equation.

Picked up some Feb 21 40 strike puts on DKNG. Pretty speculative and not exactly cheap but with all these Covid cases popping up in the NFL I can’t help but guess the season will be coming to an end sooner than we think.

What makes you like GOOG at these prices?

10 years ago they sold hundreds of cars a year of one model based on a Lotus, give them a little time to build a line up. Tesla is usually accused of moving too fast, not too slowly.. But all BMWs look like BMWs, all Porsches look like Porsches. If what you have is desirable, it's not too much of a problem. If you have more commodity products, then it helps to try to make a zillion variations and try to see what sticks or what may fills a niche. Same for iPhones vs Android phones. No offense but you still haven't pointed out this "moat" that exists. If Tesla look like Tesla and BMWs look like BMWs then one can only conclude that NIOs will look like NIOs. I fail to see how that's a moat as it's completely subjective to the buyer. Are you really arguing that Tesla found some secret sauce in looks? I mean I guess it's possible.....Apple defends their position party due to aesthetics. But when looking at a Tesla they really aren't all that special looking inside and out. When it comes to things like the Cyber truck, I will be willing to bet the Electric F150 outsells it because it looks like a traditional truck. I know a lot of blue collar workers who are excited about the eF150 and also think the Cyber Truck looks god awful. I hope Tesla changes that design up a lot.

The competition for EVs is all cars, not just other EVs. The EVs that BYD makes aren't very competitive with Teslas. Probably more competitive with other downmarket ICEs. (and please, look at products vs products, not at a few specs on a piece of paper... that's the dumb way of comparing products that leads to people missing all the things that aren't easily quantifiable but that are important to customers) What's the secret sauce that Tesla has compared to some of the newer competitors like NIO, Li, Lucid? Because functionally and aesthetically the vehicles don't seem much different. Sure, but if you're (not you specifically) going to claim that there is some specific moat beyond performance metrics and luxury standards then the proof of burden is on you. So far the bull case has been "everything else is vaporware and everyone else is 5 years behind Tesla in battery function and engineering." That gap seems to be quickly closing as there is not multiple EV companies producing products with similar metrics on paper. What is the Tesla moat over the next five years?

The competition for EVs is all cars, not just other EVs. The EVs that BYD makes aren't very competitive with Teslas. Probably more competitive with other downmarket ICEs. (and please, look at products vs products, not at a few specs on a piece of paper... that's the dumb way of comparing products that leads to people missing all the things that aren't easily quantifiable but that are important to customers) What's the secret sauce that Tesla has compared to some of the newer competitors like NIO, Li, Lucid? Because functionally and aesthetically the vehicles don't seem much different.

How are these not comparable? I would argue both Lucid and NIO are more luxurious than Tesla as well. NIO ES6 Price: 52k starting Range: 379m 0-60mph: 4.7s Tesla X Price: 80k starting Range: 351m 0-60mph: 2.6s __________________________ Lucid Air Price: 80k starting Range: 517m 0-60: 2.5s Tesla S Price: 74k starting Range: 402m 0-60: 2.3s __________________________ Li Auto also looks interesting (https://www.lixiang.com/)

Tesla has an edge compared to ICE vehicles in the “keeping up with the Joneses.” As more EV companies come into play with comparable products (when not if), consumers will begin to look at other manufacturers as the luster of Tesla wears off. NIO CEO did say they were not currently targeting the budget class yet. He did say Tesla currently has a price advantage in that area, but they have seen a lot of positivity and enthusiasm for brands other than Tesla (specifically in China and among the younger generation) I do think NIO will have some cost advantages as they continue to scale. The BaaS model is interesting. They can sell the car at a cheaper price point, and the consumer can change out the battery balancing range/cost as they see fit. Going in a road trip? Swap to a longer range battery. Live in a city? Pay less and get a short range battery. The logistics and swap function seem to be going smoothly (within city centers). I do worry a bit about logistics when you scale out to less dense areas.

ATCO

NIO has been growing sales yoy as well. Delivered 10k and change Q2 up 191% yoy. Q1 was up 160% yoy.

When elevators came to buildings, desirability of high rises went up. Because of human need for in-person connection with other human beings and human need for in-person specialized services, I wonder if resolving issues resulting from density will unlock more desire for density. When fully autonomous cars come to cities, I wonder if it would be similar to elevators coming to buildings? Is the leap from a human driven car to an autonomous vehicle really the same as stairs to elevators? Seems apples to oranges. In fact I would wager that an entire city of autonomous vehicles would be extremely frustrating as a rider. It will be as if everyone decided to have their 80 year old grandparents drive them around. Could you expand on autonomous vehicles causing a greater desire to live in a city specifically? Personally I think autonomous vehicles would cause more urban sprawl as commuting distances would be less of a chore? If they get good enough you could argue speed limits could go up another 10-15 miles per hour. I could sit in my car, eat breakfast, check emails, or take a nap on my way to the office. Living 1-2 hours from work wouldn’t be an issue.