UhuruPeak

"rookie" mistakes probably never completely stop. You know, starting at the top is actually a great thing since you get to make your biggest mistakes before you have too much to lose. I consider that $$ lost 10yrs ago a pretty decent investment overall; learning the same thing now would cost me significantly more. Besides... it looks to me like you're not doing that bad yourself anyway ;)

Quote from Broxburnboy on other thread, my response is more applicable to this one Quote from: broxburnboy on Today at 05:39:31 AM I made all my rookie market failures when I was young and resilient.. did the churning, the gambling with options, the follow the herd and paid the price early Same here; my initial investment in the stock market (a number of years ago) went to $0.00; yup, I lost it all, over the course of a few months: - started at the wrong time (Feb/March 2000, please don't laugh) - invested in the wrong area (small High Tech, please don't laugh) - didn't listen to my inner beliefs: though trained and wired to do fundamental analysis, I focused on mo-mo and used Technical Analysis but didn't even trust what I read in the charts and invested long anyway. Fwiw, I actually would have been able to make money in TA if only I had used a proper structure and didn't override my understanding of the charts constantly; I remain convinced it is possible to make money w/ TA, I'm just not strong enough to do it consistently - when I started losing too much, I used options - when I started losing too much, I used very short-dated options that would swing 30 or 50% a day, trying to both time the market and do quick intra-day round trips (please don't laugh) - at some point the trading fees finished me off and brought my account to just a few bucks, until I gave up and let the inactivity fees complete the wipe out - somewhere at some broker, I may still have an account, I don't even bother checking this, lol! Just like many on this board though, I licked my wounds and learned my lessons. For one, I stopped all "investing" for a few years and read everything I could find instead. My first stock was BRK, I found a couple of good investing boards, kept learning... I am happy to report that I've been doing better since then Cheesy

Packer is this mathematically possible? I think I know what you re trying to say, but 99% of us can t be above average. I agree that if you have the right temperament + follow the right strategy then it is possible. Couple of things: 1. I don't think Packer necessarily meant that 99% could beat the average by 5%; it could also be read as saying that more than 1% can beat by more than 5%. I will chose to remain agnostic either way 2. It could be mathematically possible if the 99% are small holders on their directly investable assets and the 1% where the large guys and huge funds investing the rest of 'our' money (since 'we' ultimately own everything).

I too am familiar with the company. David Crane (CEO) is one of the shrewdest managers in the industry; he successfully staved off a buyout attempt from Excelon two years ago, then turned around and 'stole' the second largest electric retailer in Texas (Reliant) for a few month's worth of Reliant's profits. A few weeks ago he purchased Green Mountain, a specialty retailer focused on renewable energy and just this past week I think he finalized the purchase of a few generation plants. Basically, electric retailers are the perfect hedge for the generation, since a plan is long power (makes & sells it) while the retailer is short power (needs to sell). By having both, a company is therefore benefiting from free hedging and sees its capital needs minimized - very important for pricing in the large commercial & industrial segment in particular (LCI gross margins are around $1 or $2 / MWh). I think the company is cheap but still long power overall, so yes it is still basically a call option on Natural Gas - just not as leveraged as others in the market. Ah - and the Nuclear thing seems mostly dead at the moment but there is also some optionality value here.

thx

No argument from me there!

Eric, it always amazes how willing you are to still bet big on some companies even now that you don't need to grow the portfolio anymore. Btw, are you not in BAM anymore? Every time I see the quotes I want to kick myself for not having followed you last year when you mentioned it! PS: also long SSW, large-ish line, clearly helping my performance this year as well

As long as you have hair... Yeah, lucky you! Myth, happy bday 'young man'

3 buy orders didn't get filled today, but there's always tomorrow; not thinking of selling anything at this point

Can we drop the inflammatory language already?

Let's see if the discussion gets as heated with the question I'm about to ask 8): how do you guys calculate a savings rate? I always did it by looking at how much savings & debt principal I'd pay (+ 401(k) match or even pension, why not) and divide this by my gross salary. So just by virtue of the taxes I can't see how any one gets above ~80% even without spending a dime on anything. How do you guys calculate this?

I recently submitted quotes for car insurance; the first time I started on geico.com, they followed-up with a few emails and eventually stopped. This time around, I went through with the quote so I could compare their pricing. Once again though, I didn't act and purchase the policy. Imagine my surprise when, just a few short days later, I receive a Geico letter at my home, with my name/address handwritten (more personal), with the following text: Can we turn that quote into a policy? You may not have known it at the time you got your GEICO.COM quote but you can buy your policy through Your Local GEICO Office and get a real live agent for no extra charge. That’s right, the cost won’t be any higher than your on-line quote and we may even be able to save you money by finding additional discounts. Please give us a call as (XXX) XXX-XXXX to get your policy started. We’ll need your vehicle’s VIN number(s) and driver’s licence numbers for all drivers in your household. Or if you’re the face to face type, you can stop by our office at XXX. If you’re not in our neighborhood, no problem – we set up most of our policies over the phone and can email or fax your temporary proof of insurance immediately. We hope to hear from you soon! Your Local Xxx GEICO Store Make sure and ask about our homeowners, renters and motorcycle insurance!!!!! The bolding and underline is exactly as presented in the letter - which I find very very good. So - I don't know if I will end up purchasing the policy from them, since one of the insurance brokers I contacted came back with an excellent quote that I need to review in more detail, but so far they are extremely competitive. This letter w/ handwritten name/address just blew me away. Disclosure: I do not own any BRK at this moment though I may buy a share to qualify for the investor discount without feeling like a cheat.

Same But will go up soon enough if you guys don't mind me asking, why is that the case? I can't speak to them, but in the bigger picture there's this: 1. some fear the markets will start the next leg down (I don't think that's the reason) 2. large seasonal unknown due to the Hurricane season (I think it is it) 3. dividend out in January, buy on the ex- date to minimize taxes (could be part of it?)

Yeah, calling oneself "Parsad" would be lame; I, on the other hand, was thinking of changing my handle into "Sanjeev". :D

Why do they always schedule these things on the shortest most depressing day of the year. I hope they schedule the next extinction event after that for summer holidays, or around early June, so we can have some time off. Well, the Mayans lived in the Southern Hemisphere so they got it right scheduling it for their summer. ;D oec, I think you are confusing the Mayans with the Incas. Must be the extra gravitational pull from the asteroids :D Oops! Hope my investing skills are better than my history or geography - otherwise, I'm in deep s.... Could be worse, you at least had the continent right! ;D

Our income has increased a bit over the past 3 years, between promotions for me and more hours/higher pay for the significant other; expenses have increased significantly too however, to the point where net monthly savings have dropped; we have a good deal less debt however, and net worth has roughly doubled. Do I feel better off? Nope, for two reasons: (1) expenses have gone up faster than revenue (even though it is largely self inflicted through paying for private school in particular), (2) portfolio has gone down a little from peak a few months ago, and (3) less happy at work. Does it make sense that I don't feel better off? probably not! Descartes (French philosopher from the 17th century) was wrong, human beings aren't rational ;D

This is getting bad... Munger, do you need to use this kind of language? It frankly doesn't do much for the discussion! Prechter and the long wave & all... I agree it is not technical analysis; in my mind, it really derives from Schumpeter's K-wave; the guy was a Russian macro-economist who paid dearly for arguing that capitalism wouldn't implode but just heal itself back in the 1920. So, this is macro-economy, right? but then, long waves of 17 years (or 35 yrs round-trip) also correspond to the amount of time we spend working/accumulating. In other words, by the time we learn something, we won't use it again until we are too old - that's where I think this aligns with investment psychology, which more and more folks seem to believe in, the theorists like Richard Thaler and the practitioners like James Montier or Michael Mauboussin. No it is not fundamental analysis, but a basic understanding helps a lot to make decisions (or to know that a 'bubble' (e.g., gold) may have yet to run much higher). Value investors always buy too early and sell to early, right? Basic understanding of human & market psychology could help. Does it make us "technical analysts" just because we don't only believe in value investing? perhaps it does, but we can still be good people. Sanj, I hope I didn't lose you on this ;) Munger, please no blowhard-thingy anymore. Best, UhuruPeak

Let me try to explain; bear with me if I am just confusing you even more - and any one feel free to correct me if you think I err. Drive-thru you have not in Europe, you typically drive around the restaurant (or coffee shop), order at one station, pay at a second and get the food at a 3rd one, all to reduce the time spent at each station and allow a long line of cars to move forward. Takes little space since you are going behind the back of the restaurant, but you can only have one drive thru per restaurant (banks can have a battery of them, but that's a different story). Drive-in, you park the car, order/pay/get the food all in the same place. The difference is that you can have 20 or 50 cars parked at the same time and all getting served. The "restaurant" often doesn't even allow the customers to get inside, and any place would need a parking so you are looking at the same area that a normal burger joint would take, but the actual building is tiny (just the kitchen basically) and customers usually don't stay around to eat in their car. Picture the scantily clad waitresses on rollers that you must have seen tons of times. In the US, Sonic is the big dog in this area, there aren't too many big chains doing this. Do I make sense? Ask away if still confused. Best, UhuruPeak

This is not just "University", but one of the very best (finance) MBA institutions in the world. Once you've done that, you can't get any farther in the business world w/o doing some academic stuff (PhD/DBA). That, AND he comes from that place. I know I tend to be more demanding of people coming from my own Alma Matter even though I was a total slacker back then. I haven't seen the video but I can relate

I hope the discussion won't degenerate. I enjoyed the article enormously, and will make sure to have/trigger this discussion with my family (spouse, parents...)

I heard $1.6B just yesterday (most likely WSJ or espn.com since these 2 are where I waste my time when not on this website)

You mean you spend $2 for lunch AND you take the car? Wow, you big spender! a bowl of spaghetti or rice + 'some' tomato sauce (home made while you're at it) or a can of beans will set you back less than half a buck. Ok, more seriously now - I have gone to a Red Robin a few times, and always enjoyed the experience - though not the bill. Always busy, and decor modern yet timeless enough that it probably doesn't need to be revamped all the time. I can see that it would be an interesting LT investment at the right price even if I'm too cheap to go often.

http://www.paperage.com/foex/pulp.html $US still going up, euro price still going down

Myth, Nice job once again, the stock is already up 15% this morning and over 20% from your first note yesterday. I guess I'll just sit and watch: my only complaint to you is that you didn't give us enough time to look into it closely, lol. Congrats, UhuruPeak

I did a blind test many years ago, and knew which was which but had to admit to myself that I liked the Pepsi taste better, even though I was (and remain) a Coke guy. What I didn't know then but was told later was that these blind tastes are done with 'warm' beverages. Since the two have differing levels of sweetness, it impacts the average answer - and most people (at least in North America) like their drinks to be ice-cold. Finally - and I don't know if it was a fluke - the testers did not update their results after we came. Say it advertised "43 prefer Pepsi, 28 prefer Coke". My friend liked Coke better, I liked Pepsi. The score-sheet should have said "44 prefer Pepsi, 29 prefer Coke", which would have the result of slightly decreasing the comparative advantage (%) liking Pepsi over Coke; yet they did not update this and kept their 43 & 28 numbers. I have always wondered how truthful their ad was as a result. Again - I like Pepsi better, but will always chose Coke if given the choice. Well actually, I like Dr. Pepper best and both companies sell that product through their bottling operations :)