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Everything posted by Liberty
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That growth rate is driven by selling $100,000 luxury cars, eventually they will hit a ceiling as there are only so many customers who can afford a luxury car and an even smaller number of potential customers who are willing to try a Tesla. The only way to keep it growing at that rate is to sell more affordable cars while maintaining a high profit margin, something Tesla has shown they are not able to do with the Model 3. Your argument should've been "this is from a low base". Saying that it's with $100k cars is actually something else in favor of Tesla, since that's much harder to do and shows how competitive they are with other premium vehicles. As for "shown they're not able to" with the Model 3, please, they just started making the thing and are ramping up at a pretty insane rate for a car startup that didn't exist a few years ago. Time will tell if they can or cannot. Nobody is saying that they'll keep growing at that rate forever, I'm just showing that it's apples to oranges with BMW, and that by the time Tesla gets to 5% growth (if it survives), it'll be much bigger than it is now.
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I can't wait for them to try. Pretty sure that people who bought Teslas since 2012 and are happy with them are likely to buy Teslas again in the future, and that experience making, selling, servicing, coding for, gathering data from the fleet, etc, for EVs matters for something and that not everything from making ICE cars translates over that easily. The longer they wait, the harder it'll be and the more of the premium vehicle segment will be ceded to Tesla. But clearly their main reason for waiting is that they don't want to disrupt their own more profitable existing business. The thing about it not being viable cost wise is BS.. Pretty sure that if Tesla just made Model S and stuck to a premium EV niche and grew supply at a reasonable pace rather than 50%+/year it would be nicely profitable, and getting more so each year as battery costs fall rapidly. It's all the investment in creating tons of other models, building battery factories to supply mass-market cars, charger networks for mass-market cars, growing as fast as possible, building their own store network, rapid international expansion, etc, that are eating up all that cash.
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I keep hearing stuff like this. I have no idea what Tesla is worth, but I'm pretty sure that BMW's growth rate isn't anywhere close to Tesla's*, so obviously the market is forward, not backwards-looking. If Tesla stumbles and dies, obviously it wasn't worth anywhere near BMW. But if Musk can get anywhere close to his vision - even if always late by his own timeline - it could actually be quite a bit bigger than BMW in 5 or 10 years. Isn't the Model 3 already outselling the BMW 3 series in North-America? It's not like the i3 is exactly a best-seller (the manufacturing is really impressive, but the design is as usually the case with legacy automakers -- they often make their EVs weird and niche on-purpose to avoid cannibalizing sales, and that holds them back when it comes to investing as much into EVs as they should). It's possible that Tesla could be very expensive, but also have a much wider possible-outcomes distribution than BMW and that the market is discounting this back to the current market cap because they have high confidence that Musk will pull it off somehow. The "high risk, high reward" to BMW's "low risk, low reward", so to speak. That's one theory, anyway ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ *quick look on morningstar shows BMW growing sales at 5.13% CAGR over 5 years and Tesla at 95% CAGR over 5 years. Speaking of Tesla, looks like Musk bought about $25m of shares: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000149473018000005/xslF345X03/edgardoc.xml
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On lithium-ion battery supply/demand: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13/how-batteries-went-from-primitive-power-to-global-domination
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I've watched the 1995 afternoon session and it's quite good. Nothing new if you've been following Buffett for years, but it's a lot of his greatest hits in one place. It's also nice to see video of a younger Buffett, since most of his stuff from that era that I've seen has been written.
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It depends when the debentures are exchanged. It's not now, and they probably don't expect CHTR stock to stay this low forever.
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It's a way to be tax efficient, I think. Doubt they think CHTR is overvalued, having just bought back 12% of the shares last year at higher prices.
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https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3195066
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https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180612006453/en/GCI-Liberty-Announces-Proposed-Private-Offering-Exchangeable
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It think it dropped 6% after last earnings, but that didn't last long.
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One more stock split... Kind of pointless to do them so often at 5:4... Wish they'd do 2:1 of they really don't want to be above 100/share... The release mentions that since 1990 the stock has a 23% CAGR. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180612005838/en/HEICO-Corporation-Declares-5-for-4-Stock-Split-Increases
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https://tim.blog/2018/05/31/steve-jurvetson/amp/ I really enjoyed this interview with Steve jurvetson. I recommend it, it contains lots of interesting ideas from many fascinating fields, and he's incredibly sharp.
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30 minute interview with Jeff Bezos about space exploration and blue origin: https://overcast.fm/+HGVU3-Hjc
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More details on the ruling here, for those curious: https://www.ft.com/content/7e243658-6a0c-11e8-8cf3-0c230fa67aec Chinese direct link: http://www.csrc.gov.cn/pub/zjhpublic/zjh/201806/t20180606_339317.htm
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If you hit "modify" on the original post in the thread, you can edit the title.
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My loyalty is only up to the point where everything works fine + friction. If there was zero friction, I'd change every time I had a problem and/or they created some new fee that was higher than the competition. In other words, they're pretty much a commodity to me.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-08/tesla-model-3-photos-of-elon-musk-s-factory-in-fremont Also, video of Musk's presentation at the AGM. Worth watching directly rather than all the second-hand coverage, IMO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFVTIPV7Urs
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https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/jim-chanos-cryptocurrency-is-a-security-speculation-game-masquerading-as-a-technological-breakthrough
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10-min mini documentary about how FB is thinking about content filtering and the tools it's using. Some interesting stuff on a very difficult problem they have to deal with: https://newsroom.fb.com/news/category/inside-feed/
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Ben Thompson presentation at the Code conference (2018)
Liberty posted a topic in General Discussion
If you read Thompson daily this will be a bit redundant, but this is a good overview of his theories on modern aggregators (Google, Facebook) and what makes them different from platforms (like Microsoft): (The video is 20 minutes long.) -
'The Billionaire Who Wasn't' was a good bio of Chuck Feeney. Inspiring guy.
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Thanks Joel!
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29-minute interview with Buffett and Jamie Dimon: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/06/07/warren-buffett-jamie-dimon.html
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Thank you, lucasnascimento, I appreciate it.
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That sounds great. I ordered Storm of Steel. I already had it on a list somewhere, but there's a better chance I'll get to it within the next decade if I own it..