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Everything posted by Liberty
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I wasn't there, but I know that many people from Financial Twitter were there.
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All the FANG stocks are selling, possibly partly on Druckenmiller's comments today. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/10/druckenmiller-making-large-bet-on-economic-growth-on-trump-win-sells-gold.html Repatriation tax deal would be hugely beneficial to Apple and other big tech cos.
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Here comes the window-dressing "blind trust" run by his kids: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/10/the-future-of-donald-trumps-businesses.html
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Investor day is today. Two Q&A sessions with Malone, among other things. Set your reminders (the stream is on the LMCA website):
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Exactly my thoughts. This whole notion of middle class America being better off under Trump is laughable. This is a guy who's lived a lavish lifestyle boasting about his wealth. He couldn't care less about the other 99%. It all comes down to who he is surrounded by and how much or little influence they have over him. He's a salesman. He knows how to persuade people, and he's been building a recognizable brand for "success" all his life. He figured out what to say to sell his brand to a large block of voters, and he couldn't have done it before the electronic communication era because of his mastery of both the most powerful mediums (television and the internet). Now let's see what he'll actually do with power, because it's not entirely clear what he actually wants to do when he's not in sales pitch mode (not like he spent the last 6 decades of his life hanging out with coal miners and empathizing with blue collar workers.. from a golden throne in his private plane). One thing that certain people seem to be confused about: Being elected doesn't erase the things he's said and done or make him a better person. And failing to predict this election doesn't mean that you are wrong about his character (I was never really in the prediction game, I just talked about what I found alarming about him, and one of the things that scared me was that I did think he had a chance--otherwise it wouldn't have mattered). The people who seem to think that being elected is a full vindication of Trump and everything he stands for certainly didn't seem to believe that winning an election meant that when people they didn't like were elected in the past (Obama, Bush, Bill Clinton, Reagan, Carter, freaking Hoover, whatever)...
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Some perspective here: http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/11/its-going-to-be-okay.html
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He's a wacko for other reasons, but he understands very well the importance of salesmanship/charisma/persuasion. I agree with him on many of these points, and I've had good discussions in private messages about with with a couple people form this forum; I just think it's too bad that the man who could sell himself so well and understand how to tap into the electorate's emotional hooks was someone of low character. Many presidents were also very good persuaders (Obama did it better than most, esp. his first election) who won over all kinds of rivals who might have been just competent but didn't have the charisma.
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Trump will save us from the tyranny of billionaires, uh?
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Troubling news, for sure. The most powerful man in the world is someone of low character and integrity, an anti-vaxxer, global warming denier, science illiterate, conspiracy theorist who said he'd attack the first amendment, global trade, and suggested banning people based on their religion and deporting millions of others. He's been caught on tape bragging about sexual assault and at least a dozen women confirmed it. He's so thinned skinned that he gets in multi-year feuds with people about the most meaningless things. He's completely entangled in conflicts of interests and doesn't apparently even know what a blind trust is, and his finances are still entirely opaque. He's been caught lying on camera countless times and then many times saying that he never said the things he said. His total lack of shame and ability to say basically anything and seem to mean it make me suspect sociopathy. The people from his party who were of any moral character and integrity didn't support him, so you know he's not going to forget that; meaning that he'll surround himself with those who lacked the backbone to stand up to him. We now have a salesman in chief who's obvious hunger for power and fame certainly won't get better; you don't treat narcissism by being elected to the oval office. I sure hope he proves me wrong and governs well, but even if he does, he's still not someone I'd want to run my kid's school or be my wife's boss, so how can he be a good pick to run the executive branch of the most powerful country in the world? 2016 is such a surreal year.
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What are some other good ones? I would also be interested in some suggestions. Thank you.
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I just listened to the Sam Adams episode on my walk today and it was excellent. I've liked them all so far. I hope this podcast keeps going for many years, there are so many entrepreneurial stories that have never been heard.
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VRX - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.
Liberty replied to giofranchi's topic in Investment Ideas
Is it worrying to you guys that VRX still seems to be playing games with drug prices and hasn't done everything they said they would on that front? Still huge crosshair on their foreheads for politicians... Also, not sure this has been posted here yet: http://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-valeant-documents-show-philidor-strategy-2016-11 -
VRX - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.
Liberty replied to giofranchi's topic in Investment Ideas
Ah, that's a bit different I suppose. I don't know how to underwrite such a trade. Cross your fingers and hope that nothing negative comes out in the meantime, I suppose. -
VRX - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.
Liberty replied to giofranchi's topic in Investment Ideas
How do you know that? i did my valuation analysis at numbers higher than vrx just reported. but do you truly "know" anything in investing? That's why I talked about trust first. Some you can trust more than others. I trust Mark Leonard more than I trust, say, Pearson or Papa. -
VRX - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.
Liberty replied to giofranchi's topic in Investment Ideas
How do you know that? -
Out of curiosity, how do you estimate that? I don't know much about how long a mine can operate.
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VRX - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.
Liberty replied to giofranchi's topic in Investment Ideas
If you can trust the business and model and management, then you can look at price. I can't. Who knows how many more skeletons are in the closets? Even those who had seats on the board were negatively surprised time after time after time with this one. Avoid. -
Except Pampered Chef, right? ? If they use the same practices as other MLMs described in the piece, they need to go too. But I really don't know them or their practices, so I can't say for sure. I agree. I don't believe in the cult of Buffett. He too is fallible. You mean he's human? Sure.
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VRX - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.
Liberty replied to giofranchi's topic in Investment Ideas
I wouldn't normally bother posting the results, but just because they announced on the day of the US election hoping nobody would notice, I'll post: http://ir.valeant.com/news-releases/2016/11-08-2016-110124528 The disintegration continues. -
Thanks rishig! Seems like a solid Q at first glance, haven't had a chance to listen to the call yet. Impressive growth in rooms booked.