Liberty

Pointless to look at P/E ratios, there is no correlation between P/E ratio and next year or next 3-5 year returns. Shiller P/E has a small correlation. The risk is in earnings going down/margins contracting, not necessarily in P/E ratios contracting. Depends what you're doing. He's not trying to predict all things that can go wrong (such as margins contracting) or forecasting returns, he's taking a back of the envelope look at current valuation, and P/E is a measure of valuation (as flawed as it can be).

http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.ca/2015/06/in-search-of-stock-market-bubble.html

This post has some stuff about how some lenders like Vancity are offering all kinds of crazy products (ie. they give you half of your downpayment at 0.01% interest, etc): http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/06/14/the-money-changers/ Also: http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/a-third-of-canadians-would-struggle-if-mortgage-rate-grew-by-only-1-survey-finds "A third of Canadians would struggle if mortgage rate grew by only 1%, survey finds"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-16/valeant-said-in-advanced-talks-to-buy-egypt-drugmaker-amoun

The bubble is not only in luxury properties.

http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/economics-publications-archive/2015-06-foreign-buyers-research-report.pdf

Interview with Jeff Ubben, now on VRX's board (and of course a very large shareholder via ValueAct): http://www.hedgeroll.com/hedgeroll/long-form-interview-with-valueacts-jeffrey-ubben Also: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/06/16/valueacts-2100-return-on-valeant/

http://www.hedgeroll.com/hedgeroll/long-form-interview-with-valueacts-jeffrey-ubben

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=em-subs_digest&utm_campaign=teslaweekly.com&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Tesla_Weekly_41&v=5nMcJxA3lto Elon Musk and JB Straubel discuss their vision of the energy future.

I doubt that what Stahl is doing is just shorting the VIX. He said that there are enough dysfunctional ETFs being created that he could just write about those every day and still not have enough time. My sense is that he's found stuff that is less obvious than the VIX, and he's probably diversified across a number of those dysfunctional ETFs that won't all move in the same direction at the same time, and possibly not at the time when you could use the case elsewhere, unlike the VIX. But that's just my guess...

Gloves are off: http://www.oddballstocks.com/2015/06/the-solitron-proxy-battle.html

Yeah!... If a market crash is around the corner, CSU multiple will probably get cut in half... But... For what I have read, Leonard is litteraly praying for another 2008-2009... And I would say this company should be able to grow much faster in a very volatile environment than if this muddle through scenario goes on. Cheers, Gio A downturn might help, but Leonard has said that he was surprised at how few VMS companies were distressed in 2008-2009, so in a lesser downturn than that, the bargain hunting probably wouldn't be all that exceptional. On the other hand, it means that the VMS businesses that they already have probably won't suffer as much as companies in other industries, so the defensive posture is solid.

Finished it. Really enjoyed it, recommended.

https://twitter.com/benrabidoux/status/608612145991938048

Either that, or the selling pressure from ValueAct is gone so it's back to climbing. Probably a bit of both.

I don't want to give the impression that I've been in since the IPO or anything... But so far I'm satisfied with the investment, and I'm glad I made it a big position. Tomorrow could be different...

That's why it's so surprising that used copies of Klarman's book are selling for what they are!

http://www.macworld.com/article/2933568/striking-twice-yet-another-break-up-note-to-the-apple-watch.html

Liberty, any idea? Thank you! Gio Liberty, you are unusualy quiet about the future prospects of this company... Cheers, Gio http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Charlie-Munger.jpg I have nothing to add.

So apparently ValueAct sold 20% of its Valeant stake. Most people seem to be guessing that they might want to buy some FOX with it, or maybe PCP. Mr. Market is going to freak out, of course, despite the fact that ValueAct still has a huge 3.6bn stake that represent a huge part of its AUM and that its cost basis was peanuts and at some point they were going to need to raise cash for other opportunities. Could be a buying opportunity if the over-reaction is big enough. http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1553919/valueact-capital-discloses-sale-of-shares-of-valeant-pharmaceuticals-international-inc

Video of the 2015 AGM: http://www.teslamotors.com/2015shareholdermeeting

Extremely good data visualization. Helps you realize the scale of WWII...

You are correct to a point. Art is very personal. But when people start spending $M on movies which look like they are filmed by 3 year olds I think I'll start complaining about that too. :) I might not like every movie, but even Killer Clowns From Outer Space couldn't have been written, directed, and filmed by a 3 year old. Yeah, I'd love to find something I could buy cheap and sell to one of these art collectors for real money. The greater sucker theory. You are mistakenly conflating price and quality. They are quite separate. Anyone can watch Shawshank Redemption or The Godfather for a couple bucks, because there's no scarcity. Yet the quality of those movies is widely considered to be quite high. Art that sells for a lot of money does so because there is more demand than there is supply. Some rich people demand the originals of certain paintings or sculptures from certain "name" artists, and there aren't that many of those going around, so they get quite expensive. And the wealthier art collectors get as a group, the higher prices will go. A quality reproduction will be functionally pretty much the same as an original, so whatever artistic quality there is (or isn't) will be present (and that's subjective, so it's pointless to try to project your tastes on the rest of the world, btw). Art collecting is about something else.

I kind of like the look of that one, unlike the chariot thing at the top of this thread. As for what it's worth, well, whatever the next guy is ready to pay for it. Not my game.

ap1234, I am not sure the evidence supports it. Sure, the tone in the letters suggest caution re. the stock. However, I expect that comes from a desire (oft-stated too) to keep his current shareholder base mostly intact i.e. the price is at a level that potentially allows for continuing attractive returns. I can see your case if he'd actually issued stock for acquisitions at some point, but seeing as he hasn't... FWIW, I do think Mr. Market is not pricing in the risk of a big acquisition running into trouble. Given the lack of historical precedence here with respect to transactions of size, I am not sure this is warranted. I will pass on price, even if the rest of the pieces look as if they are well in place. Best, Ragu Leonard doesn't believe in issuing stock or doing buybacks, he says that this gives an advantage to insiders and he finds it somewhat immoral. That's why his managers don't get stock options, but instead they have to buy stock in the open market with a % of their compensation and they can't sell it for a certain number of years. He also doesn't want his stock to become too pricey because his managers own a lot of it, and he doesn't want them to cash out and retire, so he tends to talk his stock down when he can.