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Liberty

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Everything posted by Liberty

  1. How do you get to 70k at 3 mil units? The Model 3 is expected to be in the 30-40k range, and it should represent most of the volume.
  2. Pershing is buying 3 million extra shares from the new issue:
  3. Tesla IPO'ed during the financial crisis and almost went bankrupt. Musk basically made it survive through sheer will (and putting every cent he had in it, borrowing money to pay rent). That was a much bigger trial by fire than they are likely to get, since at that time they were a small startup selling a few hundred $100k two-seaters during the worst crisis since the 1930s. They're a much more solid company now. Maybe the stock will go down a lot if multiples compress, but the business itself is more solid than its ever been. Saying they've never been through a downturn is incorrect. They have never been through a downturn. Startup pains when you have no product and no sales is very different from a downturn. You might be right though that Elon will deal with downturn just fine based on his startup and other company experiences. The company was founded in 2003. The Roadster was introduced to the public in 2006 and went on sale in 2008. I'd say that the 2008-2009 recession counts as a downturn and not just regular startup pains. They probably would have had lots of startup pains without the 2008-2009 crisis, but with it, they showed incredible resilience. Heck, GM and Chrysler went bankrupt. I think this does a great job pointing out the incredible advantage new companies have in capital intensive businesses (with the BIG if that they can raise capital) vs. the burden legacy companies from the 50's - 70's have from pension obligations! GM/Chrysler would have probably survived without a bailout if not for the outrageous benefits they could not re-define even when it became obvious those benefits would take down the company. This is occurring in small cities (or large ones like Detroit) all over the Northeast They would also probably have survived if they had been making good products that people wanted to buy at the time. Can't blame it all on one thing...
  4. Tesla IPO'ed during the financial crisis and almost went bankrupt. Musk basically made it survive through sheer will (and putting every cent he had in it, borrowing money to pay rent). That was a much bigger trial by fire than they are likely to get, since at that time they were a small startup selling a few hundred $100k two-seaters during the worst crisis since the 1930s. They're a much more solid company now. Maybe the stock will go down a lot if multiples compress, but the business itself is more solid than its ever been. Saying they've never been through a downturn is incorrect. They have never been through a downturn. Startup pains when you have no product and no sales is very different from a downturn. You might be right though that Elon will deal with downturn just fine based on his startup and other company experiences. The company was founded in 2003. The Roadster was introduced to the public in 2006 and went on sale in 2008. I'd say that the 2008-2009 recession counts as a downturn and not just regular startup pains. They probably would have had lots of startup pains without the 2008-2009 crisis, but with it, they showed incredible resilience. Heck, GM and Chrysler went bankrupt.
  5. Tesla IPO'ed during the financial crisis and almost went bankrupt. Musk basically made it survive through sheer will (and putting every cent he had in it, borrowing money to pay rent). That was a much bigger trial by fire than they are likely to get, since at that time they were a small startup selling a few hundred $100k two-seaters during the worst crisis since the 1930s. They're a much more solid company now. Maybe the stock will go down a lot if multiples compress, but the business itself is more solid than its ever been. Saying they've never been through a downturn is incorrect.
  6. I was thinking the same thing - whose R&D spend will match Apple's in these areas? Thanks for posting the clip. Apple is a lot more secretive than most other corps, so if they had something like this, we'd know it. In fact, in Google's case, we'd have seen a press release with CGI rendering of the lab long before it was built :) The real question is, how many other interesting labs like this does Apple have that we don't know about?
  7. I use IB, and most of the time I just use their simplified web interface because I don't need all the bells and whistles that are in the java application.
  8. Good review and musings: http://www.innerscorecard.co/blog/2015/3/20/the-loneliness-of-honesty-review-how-to-get-rich-by-felix-dennis
  9. Most of the people who have to go to office aren't very good at filling their time with things that bring deep satisfaction either. Stopping for a moment to consider the meaning (or meaninglessness) of your life might be harder and quite uncomfortable compared to just chugging along to the office ... or to a golf course. ;) That's true. But most of these people use that as an excuse; "if only I didn't have to work all the time and come home tired and have just enough time to cook food and put the kids to bed, I'd be so happy and doing so many great things!" But in reality, it's just a way to avoid living in the present, and to creates external excuses for lack of agency.
  10. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsgOmiStJ04 Anyone thinks Samsung or LG has been running a lab like that for a few years? Nice to see them bringing out Jeff Williams more.
  11. Good piece on the cable industry and how Apple could position itself in that ecosystem with Apple TV: http://stratechery.com/2015/changing-unchanging-structure-tv/
  12. As I just wrote about on my blog, I think the book is also extremely applicable for financial independence (getting comfotably poor) as well as getting actually rich. I wonder what you think, as someone who as actually followed that path, more or less, for much longer than I have? Hmm, not sure what I think of it a few years later (I don't mean this negatively -- I have a general positive memory of it, the details are just more fuzzy). I think the main takeaway for me was probably reinforcing the idea (which it central to old classics like Your Money or Your life) that one of the things you can buy with money is freedom and time, and that it's important to figure out what makes you happy and what you like doing in life, because just getting rich isn't enough, it won't make you happy on its own (as many people find out). This sounds super obvious, but I wouldn't be surprised that the majority of people who don't have to work for a living (either through regular retirement or other ways to get to "don't have to go to the office") aren't very good at filling their time with things that bring deep satisfaction.
  13. [amazonsearch]Becoming Steve Jobs[/amazonsearch] Advance reviews of this one are really good. This could actually be the book that gets it right. Looking forward to getting my pre-order.
  14. http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/model-s-has-you-covered
  15. Yep, there are worse things than being an index. Like the investors paying outrageous fees to be in the product that mimics an index. ;) Hey, I'm not defending that. Just saying that not being hugely concentrated in ASPS turned out to be quite smart.
  16. But he has brains. There are worst things than being an index, since so few people actually beat it. If he had 4 positions and one of them was ASPS, I'm pretty sure he'd have had wished to have less testicles...
  17. http://www.fastcompany.com/3042435/steves-legacy-tim-looks-ahead
  18. True. But with a few billion smartphones out there, stopping ignoring that market certainly isn't trivial.
  19. https://overcast.fm/podcasts/episode/301881161682049 :)
  20. Just received new macbook pro. FroceTouch (Taptic feedback in trackpad) is A Thing. The illusion is perfect. I can't wait until this comes to iPhones and iPads. It'll be totally sci-fi to tap a button on a glass screen and feel it push in and click.
  21. Listened. Good one. http://overca.st/CDUXxQs-Q
  22. Finally real games on smartphones/tablets and not the Birds/Candy/Farm crap. Cant wait to see what Shigeru Miyamoto comes up with. I've been enjoying Alto's Adventure on iOS lately, I recommend it.
  23. Looks like Nintendo will do games for smartphones. Finally.
  24. Rumors of an Apple OTA video offering: http://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-in-talks-to-launch-online-tv-service-1426555611
  25. I agree. I think most of the complaints about Snowball were of the "how dare she write about his mother and wife and his emotional state rather than just about stocks and business deals!" because it made some people, including Buffett, presumably, uncomfortable. Not that these things were inaccurate.
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