Liberty

I think the best way to evaluate a fund manager is over one of more full market cycles. If you look at closer to bull market peak or a bear market bottom, you get quite different results. Or a second best way would be to look at multiple independent multi-year periods. Otherwise performance is too sensitive to starting and end point levels. Vinod Agreed. I wasn't "evaluating" Bruce. I know he's good, and I expect him to beat the SP500 over time, and he has a good process. I was just saying that 10+ years is still a long time, and that someone who bought FAIRX 10+ years ago and never touched it might not feel quite as philosophical about measuring only over full cycles. It was just a random thought. Don't read too much into it. Though it's still true that most people should probably just buy a low-cost index.

Opportunistically returning it to shareholders is fine with me. I'm kind of thinking that they're waiting to see if there's anything happening on tax reform/offshore cash rapatriation amnesty/etc. At some point when they have have 200-300bn in cash offshore, they become a poster child for pressuring politicians in figuring something out. The US is missing out on a lot of investment, and US shareholders are missing on a lot of money, by leaving this cash stranded. Apart from that, buybacks, tenders, rising dividends, it's all good.

Yeah, I know it didn't include everything. Even the Morningstar chart is pretty close considering what most people would expect one of the smartest value investors to be able to do in 10 years. I'm not saying he won't overperform over time, and that his holdings aren't much cheaper and lower risk than the average company in the SP500 or anything like that. Just pointing out that this is still a close race even when measured in the decade+ scale.

That's indeed what I tell myself. But still, I think it's healthy to remind myself once in a while of how hard this activity is.

I was looking at the past 10 years, FAIRX vs SP500: http://i.imgur.com/eij3Snx.png You have to go back to 2002 for performances to be equal (and that's not looking at dividends). Sometimes I wonder if I should just index... If Bruce has a hard time doing it, what are my chances over time?

[amazonsearch]Merchants of Grain[/amazonsearch] I haven't read the book but this review almost made me feel like I have: http://y0ungmoney.blogspot.ca/2015/01/book-review-merchants-of-grain-by-dan.html Just thought I'd share it here, and start a thread in case some people have read the book and want to discuss it.

I like this way of visualizing large numbers:

Quick hit of Maffei on CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102375304 I'm guessing he was on the show for a while. If anyone can find the full video or transcript, I'd appreciate it. Thanks.

What always surprises me is how the market doesn't understand Apple. They grow EPS 48%, they guide to over 20% next quarter, they have new incremental categories coming soon, they're buying back tons of stock and raising dividends quickly (which might accelerate after they are confident the Watch is established), they're doubling the number of stores in China where they grew revenue 70%, they have the best brand in the world and a very sticky ecosystem, ASPs are going up instead of down.. But hey, the stock is still trading at a super low FCF multiple ex-cash. Price is barely back to where it was in November before this was announced. This was not new. Cook had said at least once, probably many times, that Apple Pay was one of the "new categories" (along with the Watch) that he had said were coming. I also don't think this means anything about TV. Cook said he had multiple categories coming in 2014 because everybody was attacking Apple on that. Right now, he doesn't have to say anything. It'll come out when it comes out, no need to tease it (everybody expects it anyway). I like later. More time to iron out bugs. But I don't believe that they ever meant to release it super early in the year, so they're not "late". Not that it would matter. It's not like there's likely a competitor just about the release an iPhone+Apple Watch (because these are a combo) killer and first mover's advantage will matter (anyone wants a Samsung Galaxy Gear?).. I don't see this as very new either. The analyst asked about local competition, and Cook answered. Not long ago analysts all asked about Samsung and Google, so he talked about that. The possibilities here are huge. Can't wait to see how big it becomes, and how much more sticky it makes the ecosystem, once the inventory of TouchID devices is much higher and it has launched in big markets like China, UK, etc.

Finally listening to call. Did I hear that right? Revenue in greater China up 70%? Wow. CFO: “Revenue growth would have been 4% higher on a constant currency basis” Jason Snell did a transcript here: http://sixcolors.com/post/2015/01/tim-cook-transcript-what-apples-ceo-said-to-analysts/

I'd say this was a decent quarter ;) http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2015/01/27Apple-Reports-Record-First-Quarter-Results.html

I wasn't trying to restart the arguments for and against Sears. Just making a hypothetical in the "it ain't over until it's over" vein; past success in retail doesn't mean that in the end, he'll be a successful retail investor if the money made there is reinvested in something that fails (that's the hypothetical, we're not there yet, but so far it isn't exactly a great success). But yeah, a lost decade for someone who has a track record of compounding at 30% has a huge opportunity cost. Just thinking of the kind of returns that Sears would need to make going forward to make his whole investment have a good yearly CAGR is pretty intimidating...

Congrats, happy for you! :)

Haha. :) I guess to be fair to ESL, though, he has had a tremendous amount of success in the retail space in the past. AN and AZO were grand slam home run investments. GPS was a great buy, and he also almost stole Restoration Hardware during the financial crisis. But that doesn't mean he can successfully become Bezos with SYW. True, good point. But I wonder, if Sears doesn't ultimately work out, will Lampert lose almost everything he made in AN and AZO?

Ackman should introduce Lampert to his friend who tells him "stay away from retail" every time they see each other :D

I wouldn't value it on EPS. FCF is where it's at.

This is excellent. Chou mentioned that q-ratio was the best indicator of a stock market bubble, it's near all time hight atm.... I'm not very knowledgeable about these fancy ratios, but looking at this: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/qratio.asp https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobin%27s_q It sounds like the kind of thing that should be around all time highs these days because a lot more of the earning power of our economy is now found in things other than physical assets (intangibles, intellectual capital, software, networks, websites, patents, etc). Looking at physical assets might have been a good indicator back before financial, technology, pharma, and other services businesses grew to be such a big part of the economy, but I have a hard time seeing how it could be a good indicator today, unless it was seriously recalibrated to take the changes into account. http://i1.wp.com/www.philosophicaleconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/EPSshare.jpg What am I missing here?

I think it's a case of diffuse interest vs concentrated interest (similar to the situation with farming subsidies). Those who benefit from high oil prices are very visible (high paying jobs, boom towns, etc). Those who are harmed by high oil prices are diffuses, a few hundred dollars here and there spread over billions of people. But what matters is the aggregate number, and it seems like it should be a net positive for the economy over time.

Quarter is out. Looks good to me. If they hadn't done the special dividend and their interest costs were the same YoY, net income would be up around 30%, which shows the underlying earning power. http://www.transdigm.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=196053&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2010768 Here's the audio of the call if anyone wants it: https://www.dropbox.com/s/aiqygqjwul72s8x/2015-Q1-TDG-CC.m4a?dl=0

He gave an answer on Global downstream of this: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/strategies/ask-packer-no-seriously-ask-him-anything-(aha)!/msg163359/#msg163359

Earnings tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if they sold more iPhones in China than in the US, and what the ASP will be (should be nicely up with the 6+, despite being supply constrained for the whole quarter). FX will be a headwind, but that won't stop what promises to be a monster quarter.

I don't remember the exact number, but it was low. It's because he sold all but 1 of his shares after he was forced out of the company. He made most of his money from selling Pixar to Disney, actually. But he had an owner's mindset (more than many people who own large % of companies), so the number of shares he owned didn't matter in this case...

Thank you for the summary!

I think you should go up one meta-level and figure out how you can make this kind of situation not frustrating, but productive. As Peter Cundill would say, there's always something to do. Go deeper on the stuff you already own, expand your circle of competence, just keep reading up on new businesses even if they're too expensive, because chances are at some point they'll become cheap and if you've done the work ahead of time, you'll be better positioned to take advantage of what might be a short opportunity window. Feeling frustrated, and like you have to do something, tends to lead people to lower their hurdles and buy things that don't meet their criteria, which often results in mistakes. Or just find a new hobby.