Liberty

Apparently, making predictions is hard...

Why do you guys typically put in your investing journal? Is it to write down your investment thesis for a particular investment, or just general investment thoughts? I can't speak for others, but I mostly write down investment theses and updates on how things are evolving, I put URLs for interesting things I find, notes on conference call transcripts/audio, investor days, interesting excerpts from articles and blog posts, thoughts on overall strategy and portfolio construction, try to understand past mistakes, etc. I also put related tickers in each paragraph and highlight the key words so that it's easily searchable and skimmable.

I did the exact same thing. I find it very useful. I've also been keeping an investing journal for almost a year and that has been great too.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/apple-prevails-at-1-billion-trial-over-digital-music.html

Seriously, I would be surprised if Bilgari didn't read this thread from time to time. Someone with enough ego to put his signature on public marketing materials (for a business that he didn't start and build from nothing with his bare hands -- founders who went through hell to get something going can get a pass on that one) certainly has the ego to Google his own name and read what people are saying about him. So I guess... 'Hi Sardar' ???

I'm only 32, but I was a late bloomer. Wish I had started reading more books when I was younger. Also, spending more time listening to music and discovering new artists and genres. To me, books and music are a bit different from most other 'inputs' because they require more active participation to truly get the most out of them, and so the reward is often more proportional with the effort. Also, I wish I spent less time on ephemeral info and more time on "settled science": http://lesswrong.com/lw/ow/the_beauty_of_settled_science/ The principle explained here applies to a lot of things, IMO, not just scientific stuff. I wish I had learned it earlier.

:D

Having an edge doesn't have to be just informational. I think what you describe is an edge (patience, a different approach, focusing on fundamentals, etc).

+1 :)

Not to give a serious answer in what is turning out to be a joke thread, but in my experience, people fall in value traps (including me) mostly when they fixate too much on quantitative aspects of a business and forget to properly take into account the qualitative aspects. Something cheap can always get much cheaper, and sometimes IV falls to meet the stock price rather than the other way around, so you need to figure out why the market should value a company differently at some point. Is it a melting ice cube that will just melt faster and faster, with management making the wrong moves and forces outside of the company's control further eroding value, or is it positioned well for growth or unlocking value in some way, with enough levers in management's competent hands, to at least maintain its IV long-enough for Mr. Market to realize that it's cheap? Some businesses are just very tough. A good mental exercise is to imagine what you'd do if you were CEO of the company you are considering investing in. Sometimes crossing your fingers and hoping for a favorable environment is the best you can do if you run a capital-heavy, commodity, undifferentiated business in a very competitive industry.

I enjoyed this essay and thought that others here might enjoy it too: http://paulgraham.com/know.html Some choice cuts:

I have little experience with rights offerings. How do you determine what the expectations are from the price? Is it just that if the market expected oversubscription to be a relatively high percentage, the price would be higher than LBRDK minus the exercise price (40.63) ?

Another 35m buy by Ubben and ValueAct: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/885590/000141881214000084/xslF345X03/primary_doc.xml

Thank you Packer!

Thanks so much for posting this. What software do you use to record these calls? https://www.rogueamoeba.com/audiohijackpro/

Listened to Mike Fries speak at the UBS conference. He said that he doesn't know where the rumor that they might get out of Germany comes from, but it's their "crown jewel", and it doesn't sound like he sees any reason for that to happen. If anyone wants the audio: https://www.dropbox.com/s/vlc03t95cgxf3vf/2014-dec-LBTYA-UBS-conf.m4a?dl=0

http://news.investors.com/121114-730087-google-could-lose-big-if-it-loses-apple-safari.htm

Thanks. It just seems excessive, especially since they also get salaries and own millions of shares. What happened to getting the upside from the shares they own if the business does well? Is that too old fashioned? It just seems like they're putting themselves way above other shareholders. I can kind of understand getting paid to run a fund when that's your main source of compensation... But I think Buffett would have received a lot of flak if he had tried to do a similar thing at Berkshire, paying himself a salary, being a major shareholder, and on top of that taking a big slice of profits. Makes it hard for me to trust management to have my interests at heart...

I enjoyed that book. Was sad to see Dennis' obituary in The Economist a few months back.

http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/12-10-Acquisition-of-Choice-FINAL.pdf Puerto Rico acquisition.

;D

Good post PhatKing, thanks. What do you think of Franklin's compensation? I remember that when I first looked at the company it rubbed me the wrong way. Maybe I need to look again (a lot has changed since then) and see if I can get passed it.

Thanks.

Out of curiosity, from what level were you shorting?