Liberty

They certainly found an attention-grabbing title ???

Hi Packer, Apologies if you have already written about this topic (I haven't seen it). I was curious to know if you were looking at the upcoming tracking stock by Liberty Global for their Latin America assets? There aren't many details yet so it's too early to value, but I'm curious to know if you have an opinion on the cable industry in the area and whether it's a good environment to rerun the TCI playbook (for the third time) and consolidate the industry there. Thank you.

While we're at it, if anyone still hasn't seen the 1979 Forbes article on Singleton, here it is: https://www.scribd.com/doc/18173672/fs1979 Also a great podcast episode (2 hours long) on Singleton here: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/315877-the-manual-of-ideas/30189-the-manual-of-ideas-on-business-leader-henry-singleton-founder-of-teledyne-audio

Jeff Ubben of ValueAct just bought almost $30m of VRX at $142/share: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/885590/000141881214000081/xslF345X01/primary_doc.xml

Ok, I've had a look at the paper via a trial DeepDyve.com subscription (pretty easy to do if you want to do that too). Fairly short (4-5 pages of texts and a few graphs).. Kind of disappointing, I was expecting a 40-page deep-dive into Singleton. Oh well.

Anyone has a copy of this paper? Please PM me ;) http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/10878571011088041

The easiest way is to use a free image hosting site like http://imgur.com an just copy/paste the BBC Code that they give you here, or to use the "insert image" button right above the first smiley to put the bracketed BBCode around the image URL.

http://videos.nyssa.org/a-case-study-in-financial-brilliance-dr-henry-e-singleton-of-teledyne-inc Thanks to @exMBB on twitter. Haven't watched it yet, but how can it not be at least worth watching? ;)

I'm thankful to have had the luck to exist in the first place (what are the odds?), and to have been born in a relatively rich and free corner of the Earth (low odds too - maybe I'd enjoy life less, and have fewer opportunities to develop my potential, if I had been born, say, a female in Afghanistan...)).

His personal money is run differently probably out of neglect. It's insignificant compared to his Berkshire holdings. It's not his life's work, his passion, his canvas, his legacy... I wouldn't read too much into how he runs his PA, as I doubt that's where his real efforts go. Maybe it was interesting when he was starting it and building it from nothing to millions, but now that it's more than enough to pay for his lifestyle (and more), it's probably not top of mind.

Hussman not only prints graphs about stock market predictions and subsequent actual returns, he also give a numerical correlation. Does the blog point that out? If it doesn’t, I am already suspicious… ;) Gio Why not just read a few of his articles and find out? The primary source is easily available. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised. Here's a few to get you started: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2014/06/critique/ http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/shiller/ http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2014/01/cape/ http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2014/05/profit-margins-dont-matter/

On profit margins, this is worth reading: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2014/05/profit-margins-dont-matter/ Businesses optimize for ROE, not for profit margins.

Thanks, makes sense now that they are public. Cheers!

Ackman's Q3 letter: http://www.scribd.com/doc/248310494/Ackman-Pershing-Square-Holdings-Ltd-Q3-Investor-Letter-Nov-25 (If anyone has just the PDF, not the horrible scribd version, I'd appreciate it)

I'm fully invested.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/searss-great-holiday-retail-giveaway-heard-on-the-street-1416939717

Amazon and Best Buy: http://pando.com/2014/11/25/as-amazons-iron-grip-slips-best-buy-is-taking-advantage/ Fire Phone now down 70% in 4 months: http://venturebeat.com/2014/11/26/fire-sale-amazon-cuts-price-again-to-move-piles-of-unsold-smartphones/

I was looking up Liberty Media's address because I want to send a xmas card to Dr. Malone, and found that Liberty's HQ is surprisingly nice. No Tom Murphy warehouse for them! http://i.imgur.com/FYho8nr.jpg http://i.imgur.com/VmB1Vu0.jpg

Very nice analysis (gym97, fisch). Understanding the structure of an industry and where a company fits in the value chain is extremely important. I think too many investors overlook this kind of understanding because it's more qualitative than quantitative, so it can be obscured by otherwise good-looking numbers.

"Galaxy S5 sold 40 percent fewer units than Samsung predicted" http://www.theverge.com/2014/11/24/7273817/samsung-management-shakeup

Apparently, he didn't think that was enough for him. I think at most companies, it would be more than you can be expected. But Berkshire has cultivated a certain shareholder culture over decades ("we're partners", "We'll give you the information that we wish we had if we were in your place",etc), and this seems consistent with that.

I think he obviously did it because he felt bad buying from his shareholders without giving them all the warnings possible that they were selling cheap. Just another way that he's trying to look out for all his shareholders, even those who want to sell.

LILA is definitely interesting. If Liberty Global in Europe is TCI 2.0, will LILA be TCI 3.0, will they try to rerun the playbook in the region?

Interesting that Greenblatt found the same thing with his first formula funds. People that had forgotten about them and just held their stocks did best. This makes a lot of sense. Look at any long-term, multi-decade chart of the market (at least in the US) and it's clear that things are generally moving up at a pretty good clip. Hence Buffett's advice that most regular people should hold a low-cost index fund. It's psychological forces that make people sell at the bottom and buy at the top.

Except thats not how he invested in his partnerships. People need to stop taking what Buffett and Munger say as the gospel truth, and look at what they actually DO. It doesn't mean it's not good advice, though. Especially for people who aren't a young Munger or Buffett (which is almost everybody who will hear what they say)... Most people are probably best following the advice that they give. But if you want something harder to pull off that could potentially give higher returns, then it's fine to go to the next level and read 10Ks from company A to company Z for 90 hours a week. Finding companies worth holding forever isn't exactly a walk in the park either. And its exceedingly rare. Nobody said it was easy, especially not Munger. But I think it's more attainable for most investors than to do what a young Buffett did, especially if you coattail other great investors and clone their ideas. And I don't think forever means forever anyway. It's shorthand, but in reality, it's 'hold a truly great business until the story changes'. You can buy Berkshire with the intention to hold it forever, but if Buffett goes away and you see all his succession plans falling apart (Ted and Todd start sucking, the culture changes, the businesses become badly managed and perform badly, etc), you aren't supposed to hold it just because someone used the word "forever". Munger would certainly agree with that and probably be displeased at anyone who took his advice too literally.