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Everything posted by Liberty
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Almost same day as last year (August 8, 2011). Conf call is pretty early, though. In Vancouver it'll be 5 AM.
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http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/07/24Apple-Reports-Third-Quarter-Results.html Another excellent quarter, as usual.
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Not really designed for public consumption, but here's some of the stuff I look at: [] management interests aligned with shareholder? Pro-shareholder policies? [] moat around business? Durable competitive advantage? Low-cost producer? [] good runway for future growth? Small fish in big pond? Growing market? [] management has integrity, intelligence, energy? [] good track record? [] is stock undervalued? Sufficient margin of safety? [] good defense? Would it do well in bad environment? Over-leveraged? Dependant on external sources of financing? [] good capital allocation? [] transparent communications with shareholders? [] do I understand the business well enough? circle of competence? [] have I looked at the short thesis for this business? What would kill it? Can lower cost operator (china) come in and kill it? [] could I do better by being patient? [] do I understand the downside and upside? Opportunity cost? [] does business provide clear value to its customers? [] Are you looking at normalized earnings or are you looking at boom/depress earnings? [] vetted by investor(s) I respect? [] any pricing power? How would it do with high inflation?
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Agreed. Its nice to hear. Although if I recall, these were the same guys recommending SinoForest as "strong buy" or something like that lol (I know fraud is a different animal). Heh, yeah, and the SEC oversaw Enron and Worldcom, so I guess all companies overseen by the SEC are potentially guilty by association ;) I think SinoForest was covered by analysts from all the big banks and big analyst firms in Canada, as well as many big international/U.S. banks. Another reason not to trust analysts to do your DD for you... But if you've done your DD, it doesn't hurt to see if their facts match with yours (and if not, figure out why). http://www.sinoforest.com/analystcoverage.asp (wouldn't be surprised if that list was even longer before the Muddy Waters report)
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Thanks Sculpin. Good to see another source confirm that the contracts are holding up.
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Don't judge before you've tried it ;) Blind taste tests with similar products aren't as easy as most people think... Even wine experts often fail tests comparing pretty different wines afaik.
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http://www.snl.com/irweblinkx/file.aspx?IID=103386&FID=13884562
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That will work only as long as they are right, though. They kind of have earned a freebie with their past work, and enough people will trust Block to make the stock tank, but if they are wrong on a big one, then the next one probably won't work nearly as well... Kinda like Buffett's line about a reputation taking a long time to build and but a very short time to lose.
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;D
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-18/internet-adrs-rebound-on-bets-selloff-overdone-china-overnight.html
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I guess it depends if you trust the analyst estimates (were they right before?).
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I think he believes that the end result will be better if both are done at the same time. It's probably not as if his personal time & energy is the bottleneck in operations anyway. He's hired lots of experienced operations people, and his best use is probably at a higher strategic level. IMO.
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Oaktree's Marks on Strategy, Europe, Real Estate
Liberty replied to biaggio's topic in General Discussion
Or perhaps it's because you've read so much on the subject already (Buffett, etc) and because the basic ideas remain the same whoever says them... Maybe if you had come across this book before all of that it would have seemed more valuable. Personally, I quite liked the book. I find a lot of value in reinforcing key concepts periodically. -
Yes, he's mentioned at least once (at the end of the Whistler conference) that he's been blacklisted from trading FTP stock from the very start of the company because he's always working on many deals. I can't really know for sure, but I think he'd be backing up the truck if that wasn't the case. I mean, if he's considering buying almost the whole thing, I'm sure he'd be willing to buy a fraction of that in the open market if given the chance :P
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I think going private would be a last resort thing, done after other options have been exhausted (many profitable quarters, maybe buybacks or dividends if acquisitions slow, etc). But saying that he'd consider going private certainly sends a signal about Chad's confidence in the business.
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Guess it depends how many margin calls are left.. :)
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Indeed, I wouldn't expect too much for Q2. It's really H2 2012 that will become interesting, and early 2013 after the cogen is done that I'm truly waiting for. Patience is required.
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Oaktree's Marks on Strategy, Europe, Real Estate
Liberty replied to biaggio's topic in General Discussion
Thanks. I had only ever read Marks and seen photos of him. In the flesh he actually looks much younger than I expected. Anyone knows how old he is? I saw 66 somewhere, but I'm not sure it's a good source. -
I don't think they released it June 30 last year, as that's the exact day when the quarter ends (afaik) and they aren't quite that fast :) From memory, I'd expect it in late July/early-August.
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Indeed, though so far he seems to have done both, though too earl to tell if it'll stay that way.
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As he says in the interview, it wasn't the original plan, but he had to put more in than he expected (possibly because of 2008).. Still, he's certainly go conviction and the ability to deliver!
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http://www.alderonironore.com/_resources/news/2012-07-16-NewsRelease.pdf
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http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2012/07/judge-says-rim-owes-147-million-in-patent-infringement-damages/
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Interesting stuff. Fascinating guy. We need more like him, tackling hard problems rather than building yet another Web 2.0 startup that intends to sell out to the first acquirer..