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Everything posted by Liberty
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If only for environmental reasons, I'll be glad when coal is mostly gone.
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/prem-watsas-stock-picking-aces-the-guru-test/article4249305/
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I can't really say because I'm only about 70 pages in, but even if the rest of the book was to start sucking, just what I've read so far would be worth it IMO. Some insightful stuff about mindsets and avoiding bad decision downward spirals, psychological resilience, etc. Some stuff I already knew about, but always good to refresh memory, like re-reading Buffett.
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Indeed. It's probably a consequence of teaching efficient market theory for so long. After all, if that theory is true and you make public some info about a company and the market doesn't move, it either mean that the information was either not important or not new.
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You definitely need an edge over other market participants, and that can come from doing research until your eyeballs bleed. It also helps to be wicked smart like Ackman :P
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Chad on BNN: http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip697985 I like what I hear.
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Indeed, that's why I said that he hasn't seen every detail of what came out, but if he had died, say, 3 years ago, we would truly see what the companies does without his input. I'm sure that when Jobs was still alive they were already looking into HiDPI screens and flash storage and maps, etc, and planning prototypes around them, but they had to wait for costs to go down and suppliers to ramp up and such (as well as waiting for the most to be squeezed out of current designs - you don't want to do full refreshes too quickly, especially if competitors aren't close to catching up). Product cycles at Apple are pretty short, but not that short afaik.
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I've read the biography and watched the interviews and followed Jobs for years. I believe that his two biggest contributions were his ability to set strategic direction by knowing what to do and especially what not to do (when he came back and redefined Apple's computer line as a grid of "desktop-laptop/consumer-pro" that was genius in itself) and his taste as a consumer/beta-tester/designer (how he could try a product prototype find minute flaws in design and reject anything not "good enough", as well as define some attributes of what "good enough" was). Considering the length of product cycles and how it seems like until the very end Apple was Jobs' passion, I'm pretty sure that he still steered the company in certain directions and was shown prototypes and gave his approval and disapproval. That doesn't require spending 70 hours a week at 1 Infinite Loop or whatever. Could be done in very little time, but still matter a lot. I'm not saying he approved all the little details we're seeing now, but chances are that he steered prototypes in certain directions and put resources into certain lines of R&D (TV?). IMO the next product cycle will be more interesting for the post-Jobs era.
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I don't. Hoping for more details in next 10Q or CC.
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will have a look around, thanks If I remember correctly, most of my thinking about EBIX's acquisitions was laid out previously in this thread, and the only thing that I would add to that old message now is that there's a big difference between an acquirer with slim margins and one with big margins. EBIX generates tons of cash that can be reinvested in growth, and as long as they make good decisions (strategic acquisitions, not overpaid, worth more to EBIX because of cross-selling, buying relationships that would be very hard to create organically, integrate them well, only buying if they can get the margins they want, etc), it should be very accretive. Other companies with small margins must constantly borrow or increase their share count to make acquisitions, and as if that wasn't bad enough, they often buy the wrong things for too much and then integrate them badly. No wonder these acquisitions destroy value... As with most things, there's a right and a wrong way to do it. So many do it badly that I understand that it raises red flags, but after digging around I've become pretty comfortable with EBIX's acquisitions. In fact, more than that: I'm happy when they announce a new one, because I trust management's judgement on them.
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I've explained elsewhere in this thread why I think these make a lot of sense for EBIX. Can't seem to find the exact message right now, but it's there if you want to look.
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I still believe it was cheap at 38 (if you hold it for a few years), it just got a heck of a lot cheaper since then!
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Nothing surprising, but it's official now, PlanetSoft deal closed: http://www.ebix.com/pressrelease_text.aspx?artid=240
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To be fair, most of what we're seeing right now was almost certainly pretty far along before Jobs died. We'll truly know in a few years. The company is full of extremely talented people, so they certainly have the potential to keep it up. But Jobs truly was special, both for his taste and purity of vision, and without him it's less probable that they'll be able to keep doing as well as they have in the past 10 years.
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Tons of really nice stuff announced by Apple. Nothing that will shock the market, but a lot of things that will keep Apple ahead of competitors. The new Macbook Pros certainly seem like the best laptops on the market right now, and iOS 6 seems like the best mobile OS. http://www.apple.com/macbook-pro/
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Agreee, <IV. Chad's M.O. is not to do a deal unless he's already pretty sure that all the pieces of the puzzle will fall into place rapidly. I would expect that if LSQ closes, it means that almost everything else's in the bag.
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The way Chad was speaking on the CC (and what was reported from the AGM), I would expect LSQ to close any day now. Glad I increased my number of FTP shares by 40% around $17-18 :)
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fortress-paper-updates-status-of-dissolving-pulp-production-2012-06-11
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Not sure if you are kidding or not, but if you aren't, compare the nose, ears, and glasses here: http://www.inquisitr.com/wp-content/2011/07/Warren-Buffett.jpeg The shape of the glasses in the photo where he's holding the computer makes me think that that photo might have been squeeze horizontally, which makes buffet looks like he has a narrower head. But it's definitely him.
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The wedge shape makes me think it's not a Macbook, but rather some kind of netbook (Asus maybe?).
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BTW, if you guys like this, I highly recommend these three books: http://www.amazon.com/Surely-Feynman-Adventures-Curious-Character/dp/0393316041/ http://www.amazon.com/What-Care-Other-People-Think/dp/0393320928/ http://www.amazon.com/Perfectly-Reasonable-Deviations-Beaten-Track/dp/0465023711/ I've read them all and they're amazing.
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[amazonsearch]The Art of Learning[/amazonsearch] Haven't finished it yet, but great so far. Manages to have nothing to do with investing and business directly, but everything to do with it indirectly. A successful investor needs to be a very effective learning machine and - as Munger keeps reminding us - have many quality mental models to make sense of the world. Trivia: The author was featured in the book and movie "Searching for Bobby Fisher", documenting part of his youth as a child chess prodigy.
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http://www.gurufocus.com/news/179300/ackman-rolls-swaps-on-howard-hughes-co
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http://www.lhup.edu/~DSIMANEK/cargocul.htm About science and how to think honestly. Definitely applicable to investing.
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I gave up on that book. Maybe I heard good things about Bilion Dollar Lessons and mixed it up with this one...?