Liberty

Not the most impressive quarter ever, but they've been saying for a while that all the big investments they've made in senior sales people should only start paying off in the second half of 2012, so patience is required. I'm pleased with the growing margins despite all this, and the operating cash growing over 30% YoY is very nice. The carrier channel looks bad, but I wonder if we're still seeing impacts of their switch to 100% on demand rather than having some licensed stuff there (which drops revenues in the short term but should be better in the long term). Ironically, the lukewarm quarter can be good in the long-term if it allows them to repurchase a bunch more shares under $20. I think that would be a very good use of cash.

As long as they get a decent price on the electricity, seems like a winner. It'll help them fund the rest of Thurso's co-gen, which was the biggest challenge on the short-term.

Sorry if this is a repeat, but I haven't seen it linked elsewhere http://www.cnbc.com/id/47322740 Starting to watch it now. Fully expecting to want to punch that Joe guy yet one more time...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/ontario-teachers-side-with-ackman-on-alternative-cp-board-members/article2424930/

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/92112305/ Buffett talking to Betty Liu.

I agree, though if the low cost status was already confirmed, FTP probably wouldn't be an opportunity for value investors. A lot of it is looking at this team's track record and having trust in Chad, which is inherently not guaranteed, unfortunately. Personally, I'm also just waiting and watching.. We should know a bit more next week, but it'll really be after co-gen is done at Thurso that we'll know what is what.

Worse case scenario, It's not like DP is something exotic with few potential buyers. They can sell to others, including eventually in the specialty market. But if you believe the overall thesis that cotton production is pressured and that most people in emerging countries are going to start buying more clothes as they get a bit richer, and that FTP can achieve low cost production, then any drop much below 1200 can only be temporary, and FTP's chinese counterparties probably will be more attached to the long term contracts than even FTP itself...

Chad has mentioned that this was a huge priority for him and that he could probably could have gotten better prices, but he would rather make as sure as possible that his counter parties were trustworthy. Hard to be certain, but I tend to trust his due diligence.

Thanks.

In my experience it can be hard to find. I mostly just hear about it on FTP conference calls... I think most DP is traded on long term contracts and the quality of the DP means price varies from one source to the other. Probably easier to keep track of cotton prices.

High cost producers shut down, putting a floor on DP price. Meanwhile, FTP should get at least 1200 as per their long term contracts.

Same for me. I guess it shows just how misunderstood this company is. It reminds me of what Chad said in an interview, about how when he was first raising money for the company, investors wouldn't even let him get to the second slide of his presentation because of the word "paper" in the name. Too many will paint everything in the forestry sector with the same brush..

Yeah, it's probably not a big market so far, but I know they wouldn't have gotten in if they couldn't get their 40%+ margins, so it should be profitable, and having first mover's advantage could mean that they'll own that market. Who knows, maybe in a few years it'll be of a decent size. People spend a lot on their pets in bull markets! Another piece of recent news: http://www.ebix.com/pressrelease_text.aspx?artid=229 New 100m credit facility at LIBOR plus 1.50%.

Bought some FTP today for my wife's RSP account. Thank you Mr. Market!

As is customary for this stock during the pre-earnings buyback blackout, the shorts have made it drop quite a lot on no news. Good buying opportunity, IMO.

http://www.alderonironore.com/alderonironore.com/_resources/news/2012-05-03-NewsRelease.pdf

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/ackman-gains-ringing-endorsement-for-alternative-cp-directors/article2421251/

Thank you!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303877604577380470571678552.html

http://lesswrong.com/lw/gw/politics_is_the_mindkiller/

We don't hear enough about Indonesia these days (or ever?), so here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-01/indonesia-chases-china-as-middle-class-consumption-soars.html

Chouinard's autobiography, Let My People Go Surfing, is an excellent book. I recommend it. http://www.amazon.com/Let-People-Surfing-Education-Businessman/dp/0143037838/ Great company too. No idea how profitable they are, but their are pioneers in my things including the environmental protection angle.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/alderon-receives-initial-results-from-final-drill-program-before-feasibility-study-2012-05-01-831150?reflink=MW_news_stmp

Interesting thanks for posting. That magazine has amazing production values, I love the paintings.