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Everything posted by Liberty
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Yeah, I also think that's probably why they did it (or partly why, they probably also interpreted too rigidly some studies without considering the asymmetry in risks -- too many people think you can't do anything without RCT studies, but sometimes you just don't have good data and need to make a decision with what you have). Big mistake, but the biggest mistake was to not have been ready for an epidemic with a huge stockpile and good plans for what to do, testing capability and all that, and to lose weeks to this disorganized response.
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Personally I agree with you, but I suspect that a bunch of laws have been shaped by religious considerations. And I also think that respecting the wishes of the deceased/family needs to have weight in the equation, though it shouldn't be an absolute veto if there's a significant public health risk to trying to accomodate these wishes.
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The worst case isn't that it's no different. The worst case is that it's worse, potentially because it'll make people rush to get masks that hospitals need, and because people not used to wearing masks can do all kinds of wrong things that increase their risks (they constantly touch their faces to re-adjust the mask, they feel protected, so they get themselves in situations that they wouldn't have without the mask (going out more, getting closer to people, etc), and they may not understand that the mask can be contaminated, so it must be taken off carefully without touching the outside, washing hands before and after, not re-using the same masks, etc). These are all real considerations. I still am in favor of masks, but I think you need to educate people about them, just like how most people recently realized they didn't wash their hands properly and didn't understand surface contamination and such. It can be done, but it has to be done well. Done badly, I think it could make things worse. You certainly don't want to do what has just been done, with the CDC and many cities recommending cloth masks, and then having the president say right after "well, it's totally voluntary, you don't have to, I don't think I will, etc". You need a clear message, because masks work if enough people wear them (you need lots of asymptomatic people who don't even know that they're sick to wear them to bend R0), so if you do it half-assed, you won't get much out of them. It's like if you only vaccinate 10% of a population... Still too many potential vectors.
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I posted about this a while back. I have some friends who are nurses/MDs at NYC facilities, they have replaced their morgue vans with trailers as the twitter thread mentions. I think I even posted the picture. This happened about...1.5 weeks ago? Not sure where he is getting the rest of the information (burial trenches in city parks?) but it seems the most effective way to manage the bodies would be cremation,but I am no professional in this area. Can they cremate bodies against the wills of the deceased/families, if they had wanted to be buried? Probably wasn't an issue in China, but here the law may prevent it. I don't know.
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Once in a while I remember this company and have a look. The dynamic reminds me a bit of Altius. It's really interesting on paper, which is why I originally bought it. But the stock still trades where it did in 2005.... It's a bit like the old saying "however beautiful the theory, once in a while it should be compared with reality" (can't remember exact phrasing, but that's the gist of it).
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On the balance of the evidence that I've seen, I'm still masks4all too, as long as there's heavy education about their limitations and making sure they don't replace other measures or lead to more dangerous behaviour. And as long as home-made cloth masks are encouraged until supply of other masks catches up to demand from medical workers. Seems like we won't have solid evidence quickly enough to decide, but the asymmetry of risks pushes in favor of going with masks. I do think they're probably a good constant reminder of the situation (including visually for those not wearing them) and probably help maintain social distancing more than they hurt, on top of any effectiveness in catching some droplets that may otherwise infect others, but who knows. It's probably not one answer, but has a lot to do with education surrounding them and other measures, so it can be done well or badly.
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I'm a hater of corruption, stupidity, incompetence, bullshit, meanness, authoritarianism, nepotism, tribalism, irrationality, anti-science, and a few other related things. If that makes me a Trump hater, oh well ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Shooting the messenger. Is this your superior debating skill on display? He's a garden-variety troll. You could have a 12-hour Ken Burns documentary about a single thing that Trump did wrong shown from every possible angle all caught on tape and he still would never update his thinking. He'd probably change the subject to something totally unrelated that someone else did wrong (as if it cancels out) because to these people, it's about scoring points and tribalism, not about trying to understand what is going on. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9weLK2AJ9JEt2Tt8f/politics-is-the-mind-killer
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Thread on NYC morgue problem:
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based on my conversations with three friends who have admitting privileges at (NYP) one of the best NYC hospitals, plaq+z pack has been administered since very early on with very good results (very few patients dont have favorable immediate improvement). same with my pulmonologist buddy in Jax. if Fauci is not 100% completely behind this treatment (with additional treatments hopefully soon to follow), he really does not now what is going in in the best hospitals in US You think Fauci doesn't have better info than your "three friends"?
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Is this real? Are you really linking to a whole article blasting someone for "interrupting" an expert while he speaks, while Trump constantly does this to everyone and contradicts experts to their faces based on no facts and keeps them from even answering questions (like yesterday's question to Fauci about Chloroquine)?
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https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/04/best-case-global-coronavirus-ends-august-but-less-than-10-chance.html
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/opinion/trump-coronavirus.html
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https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/should-you-wear-a-face-mask-heres-all-the-data-we-have/ Sweden stopping Chloroquine because of side-effects: https://www.gp.se/nyheter/g%C3%B6teborg/sahlgrenska-stoppar-behandling-med-malariamedicin-mot-covid-19-1.26236140 (google translate)
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Also: https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764199/use-hydroxychloroquine-chloroquine-during-covid-19-pandemic-what-every-clinician
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Gottlieb on hydroxychloroquine: (Thread)
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“ New data from China suggest obesity doubles odds of severe pneumonia from Covid19” “ Overweight/obesity are serious comorbidities for #covid19 that are going to make this disease much more deadly outside cities, in the south and among poorer people. Consider your metabolic health in your risk assessment for you and the people you know.”
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Thread on cloth masks: Surgeon general:
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And while they're holding the federal stockpile for when a swing state needs it, they're also doing this: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/3m-says-white-house-asked-it-stop-exporting-u-s-made-respirators-to-canada-1.1416965
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https://citizenlab.ca/2020/04/move-fast-roll-your-own-crypto-a-quick-look-at-the-confidentiality-of-zoom-meetings/
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Open source ventilator:
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It was also posted in this thread: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/chanos-nice-interview/msg405961/#msg405961