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Liberty

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Everything posted by Liberty

  1. New podcast interview with Mauboussin: https://www.jimruttshow.com/michael-mauboussin/
  2. Good new interview of Peter Attia by Tim Ferriss: https://tim.blog/2019/11/27/peter-attia-fasting-metforming-longevity/
  3. If you don't want to think about it, just get low-cost ETF indexes. It's the most sensible thing to do. Expenses of 1% or 2% are a big deal if you expect the market to return 6-9% a year. That's a huge chunk of your return that you're paying in fees. You can take out your compound interest calculator to see how much the delta widens over 20-30-40 years. Most mutual funds and hedge funds don't beat the indexes. Would you pay them 10-20-30% of your "profits" each year for trying, money that wont be compounding for decades to come? Maybe you're really good a picking managers that outperform, in which case, go for it, but since you're asking for recommendations, I'm guessing that picking money managers isn't your specialty, so don't expect to outperform that easily there too. If if was that easy to do prospectively (not in hindsight), everybody would do it.
  4. It's impressive how asserting things in a confident tone and implying things without really saying them will keep some people believing you all the way down... This stock is down 99.7% from peak and 99% since this thread was created. Nobody has made money on this, except management through salaries, and maybe someone that was short from the start (which I haven't seen in this thread, and I've read all pages), and even then we'd have to look at borrow and option costs vs. the opportunity cost of just owning an index that went up massively during that same period (so the net loss is even bigger than 99.7%, as crazy as that sounds--from OBE peak, SPY is up 182% and NASDAQ 291%, so the delta is around 3-4x, and if you beat indexes (why invest actively otherwise?), it's even more). This is a very volatile stock that is basically an equity stub, so at some point it may spike, maybe 50% or 100%, who knows, and then some people will say they were right about it, just had to be patient, etc. I know that day is coming. But I'm also pretty sure that the odds that their average cost basis + opportunity cost will be anywhere close to the bottom tick is very low... So let's be careful about bagholder-accounting of only looking at the last trade rather than all the capital used and over what period. When things go down this much this fast, you need multi-baggers just to partially get out of the hole, it's almost impossible.
  5. I did not say that we were out of the hole. We are also both wise enough to recognize that one does not have to touch the underlying shares to swing trade. OBE has a thriving option market - all you had to do was write calls, keep the premium, and reinvest it in new shares at the end of the specific time period. Then let the market work very hard, to offer you a lower re-entry price ;) SD There's no such thing as a free lunch. That's not how options work.
  6. The Gavin Baker interview on ILTB was great. The two before that, with the Instragram co-founders and with the Spotify CEO were also great.
  7. Two new acquistions: https://www.harriscomputer.com/en/news/?data-ipsquote-timestamp=1574830800&article=acceo-solutions-inc-a-wholly-owned-subsidiary-of-n-harris-computer-corporation-acquires-la-solution-int https://www.volarisgroup.com/news/article/volaris-group-welcomes-policy-processing-systems-to-insurance-and-benefits h/t @pearnick
  8. Maybe I wasn't clear, but when I said "early stage", I meant startup/pre-IPO, which is when it can be hardest to attract top-level employees and when going fill SBC might seem like it makes most sense. SBC is reported. Anyone half-sophisticated looks at it and takes it into account. It's not free money or free margins or free higher-multiples..
  9. Because employees need cash to live, probably don't want to take quite that much risk, and during early stages, that stock is highly iliquid.
  10. I'm not saying it's a new idea that he invented from scratch. Of course it's basically a restatement of "management quality matters a lot" and he explains some of the reasons why. In investing, all the important ideas are basic. We just forget them constantly, so we have to revisit them over and over again and hope for incremental insights and better memory scaffolds so they are easier to recall and apply when needed and such. That's my method anyway, good for you if you can look at something once and never relearn it and apply it perfectly going forward.
  11. It's only 24 cents if you own only one share, or 8 cups of coffee if you own 100. How many do you own?
  12. Yes, Fleabag is also great. I just can’t watch this when my son is around. ;D. That’s the thing with Netflix, they have a lot of foreign TV. I am sucker for Brit TV and now Netflix also has a lot of German TV series, Chinese and Korean costume movies and who knows what else. Amazon Prime has one of this too, but no ones else comes close. To get these things one needed to buy a special subscription, which would cost quite a bit, now it is included in Netflix and Amazon “all inclusive” streaming buffet. Disney can’t beat that, but of course they have another angle. I haven't seen them yet, but I've heard good things about 'Dark' (German) and 'Money Heist' (Spain -- La Casa Del Papel).
  13. I think it makes a lot of sense, and is along the lines of what I've been thinking for a long time about the high value of certain attributes of businesses that aren't easily quantified. You may dislike the writing style, but the fact that the adaptability/resilience of a business/management team is worth something is definitely true. Something being hard to quantify doesn't mean it should be ignored (nobody said investing was supposed to be easy).
  14. More interviews with Malone in this thread here, if you want more: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/john-malone-the-full-d7-session/
  15. Doesn't look that great under the hood, last I checked. What are you seeing? Down another 26% in the past month... Soon enough you'll be able to buy the whole market cap by yourself, since you like it so much.
  16. Interesting read: https://www.nzscapital.com/sitalweek/redefining-margin-of-safety (btw, when I post these things it doesn't necessarily mean that I agree with everything, or even most things in it. Sometimes yes, but please don't just assume it -- lots of things are worth reading and thought-provoking without being perfect)
  17. I'm just 6/8th of the way through season 1, but I can recommend "Killing Eve". This season has Phoebe Waller-Bridge as showrunner, and it shows. The writing is really good. She's the main actor and writer of the also great show 'Fleabag' (Amazon Prime Video). I've seen the first season of that and really liked it.
  18. 7-min interview with Rutledge down this page; https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/21/charter-communications-ceo-cord-cutting-will-begin-to-slow-down.html
  19. I don't think that's the case. If we knew nothing else, it might be an interesting (cynical) theory, but in this case, I think they really tried to do something different. They achieved a lot on the specs and pricing (if they can hit it), but the aesthetics just didn't work IMO.
  20. Seems like a pretty big mistake to me too. When you attempt something radical that is totally different from the norm, that's always a risk. It'll be interesting to see where they go from here... whether they dig in, or regroup and do some serious redesigning.
  21. Because they reinvest all their margins in SG&A and R&D, because at this stage of their maturity, it's the best way to create long-term value.
  22. New one at Jonas, this one in Australia: https://www.jonassoftware.com/About_Us/Latest_News/Jonas_Software_Acquires_Impos_Solutions h/t @pearnick
  23. This year's Faber interview with John Malone: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/11/21/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-liberty-media-chairman-john-malone.html Edit: Youtube link:
  24. One more at Vela: http://www.ilight.com/en/news/fieldview-acquired-by-vela h/t @pearnick
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