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Everything posted by LC
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None of those seem like a 1-2 month timeframe catalyst... I think the reason to buy DSWL is within a basket of net-nets, Graham style.
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Maybe...I still plan on getting an IPad because it's so much easier to read PDFs on it. Reading a 10-K or investment write-up on an IPad Mini is too much to bear, at least for me.
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Very interesting...if AWN is the target of VZ's entry, it seems like ALSK has better exposure from a risk/reward point of view? Their market cap is 1/5th of GNCMA's yet they control 1/3rd of AWN.
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Did a quick back-of-the-envelope 10 year summary of operations: Operating cash produced: $1,275 Capital investment: $1,299 Share repurchases: $245 (reduced shares outstanding by 25% over 10 years) I like how GNCMA has levered up to buyback shares versus paying dividends. Provided they retain their customers, they can lever up a bit more (especially in this low interest rate environment). Although I'm not sure that's the best move if they are trying to shop themselves (or compete with) Verizon. The AWN deal looks like an economically smart deal. ALSK starts digging itself out of a financial bind, GNCMA increases its wireless coverage. But Packer...can you comment on the cash flows of the deal? My understanding is that both companies surrender their wireless assets (and revenues), then are paid by AWN per the terms of the deal? I see about $30-40MM flowing to GNCMA from AWN over the first 4 years, however GNCMA would lose its current $60MM in wireless EBITDA, therefore the deal is dilutive? The Seeking Alpha write up previously posted made a great case for Verizon to acquire ALSK. However that has not happened...in the meantime, ALSK and GNCMA have "sold" their wireless assets to AWN. Perhaps a deal is in order to sell AWN to Verizon, after ALSK extracts cash up front to whittle down its debt, and then leaves GNCMA with the majority of the upside from the sale of AWN? Then VZ can enter the marketplace solely as a wireless provider, while GNCMA/ALSK can continue to provide landline/television service.
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As well as reducing his tax bill.
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Do you know what IB charges? I'm in the process of migrating my accounts over.
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Read his partnership reports, then BRK reports, then his writings/interviews in the media, then the books about him.
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Not sure. But I can say with more certainty that it will not be out of business, which is how it's priced today.
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Lunchtime beers eh? :D How do you rationalize the increased debt they've taken on in recent years?
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Not sustainable though! If everyone had that attitude, nobody would search for them and there would be nobody to "cheat" off of!
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At 3.5bln, the company is priced for death. With Johnson gone, all they need to do is fall in line with every other retailer and they should be worth more than 3.5bln. Stock went up to 16 and change per share in the aftermarket.
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Tobacco is arguably a good business. I think certain tobacco companies and Coca Cola have more durable moats than Microsoft. 2- I find it interesting that everybody has such different opinions on which companies will be the most durable. I'll throw Gillette into the mix. The hair never stops growing, and all they need to do is price their razors cheap enough to make them disposable.
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I don't know, but I like the economics of glass: the specialized versions require high levels of skill (and have the margins to make it worthwhile) and Corning is a leader in that field. I think the quality of glass will become important as it is the physical item that connects people to digital visual entertainment. I think it's more likely than not that the highest quality manufacturers (say, Apple) will use the highest quality glass in their product. I could be wrong, and there was certainly more of a margin of safety when I purchased my position (@ ~$12/share), but the price does look cheap. Added: Corning mentions anti-microbial glass being developed. I immediately thought it was designed for cell phone manufacturers to market as "no smudges, germs or oils etc. on your cell phone!".
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In general I think that I agree. I find this concept applies to entrepreneurship as well. Throwing a ton of money at a good idea doesn't promise success: in fact it's usually poorly spent. However "bootstrapping" a business together creates a more focused company with a higher chance for success (and less risk in terms of absolute capital loss!)
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http://www.corning.com/news_center/news_releases/2013/2013042402.aspx Dividend increase to .10/share, buybacks authorized for up to $2bln. Dataroma: http://www.dataroma.com/m/stock.php?sym=glw
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Marchionne obviously knows Ferrari is worth a ton brand-wise. The question in my mind is not so much the details surrounding a Chrysler deal, but Alfa Romeo. As he said, they need to rebuild Alfa Romeo the brand from scratch. I'm not sure if that is possible. The "economic climate" in Europe probably isn't conducive to that, either. Then again, I am no marketing expert - I just figure that when budgets are tightened in Europe, how easily can a car manufacturer produce and market a new brand?
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You are asking really intelligent questions. I adopted the idea that learning the models would be useless unless I applied them to reality all the time; because of course, all skills attenuate through disuse. I generated my list of models first by studying Charlie Munger's lessons, and by reading every book he's ever recommended. I also studied other sources like Farnam Street. Then I wrote down all the models that obviously had explanatory and predictive power. (This is such a simple idea) Then I had to make the models easily accessible memory-wise, so I used the linking method and then created a memory palace for them. When I'm making any kind of meaningful decision, I go through my checklist by walking through my memory palace. And of course the more I do it the easier it gets. What this mental routine has done for me is perfectly ridiculous. I can never thank Charlie enough for the gift he's given me. Wow, that is quite impressive. Let me ask you, how difficult is it to implement that memory technique? I have tried it in the past and it never "stuck" with me. It makes such logical sense that I would like to implement it, and a list of mental models would be an excellent use of this memory technique!
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Apple reminds me of the line "look for a business that needs a new CFO not a new CEO"
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It might not be a bad idea to put some limit orders for absurdly low prices in as a hedge against this ;D
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My daughter was flying to NYC for business two days after the Boston marathon bombing. When I got home the evening of the bombing, my wife was worried that my daughter shouldn't go. I told her not to worry that this is the safest time for our daughter to go to NYC because of the heightened awareness. Oh yes, I can tell you from experience that NYC was quite safe that day. Lots of undercover cops in yellow cabs and in the subway.
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I'm reading through the filings now, they note that ALSK will be using all the $100m proceeds to pay down debt/increase cash reserves.
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I too think Microsoft faces headwinds in just about everything besides Office. Then again, Office is a pretty large "besides". I wonder what MS would look like if they spun off the Office division... :o
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This is why I took a small position: Apple has a history of surviving. Somehow, the Apple Mac was able to survive the onslaught of Windows. In fact, recently the Apple brand has become so powerful that a comparable Windows PC can cost 25% of the price of a premium Mac. Windows may be the best selling OS of all time, but Apple can price their hardware to the stratosphere. Now Android may win the mobile OS space, I don't know. But I'm thinking Apple will still be able to price it's I-Whatever's above the commodity handsets everyone else releases. When I think of the other mobile handset producers, I have no brand identity of a single one besides Apple. What is Samsung known for? What is Nokia known for? What is Blackberry known for? (ok, maybe blackberry: they are the only guys left with a keyboard). What is Motorola known for? But I know Apple is high quality. I'm sure these are old arguments that have been mentioned in the Apple thread countless times, but I figure with the Price:Cash ratio of the shares, the history that Apple has battling in the computing space, and their brand name, it's worth a small bet.
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Heh, my father collected Stamps and Coins. I, of course, being younger and slightly more....math inclined?...collected Magic: The Gathering cards. I'm sure the older posters have no idea what that is but perhaps my fellow 20-somethings do. At any rate, last I checked, the more valuable cards have appreciated about 400% over the past 15 years. Works out to about 11% CAGR. I'll have to brag to my folks about that one, they labeled it a "useless game!" ;D