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LC

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Everything posted by LC

  1. That's why I boosted my stake after Wednesday's report. I assume rational people will do the same. I doubled up on A-Warrants today...they seem to be the most attractive way to leverage up this situation. In absolute dollar terms I'm split about 60/40 between common and warrants. With just under 6 years of time value on a stock that is already undervalued....I won't struggle to sleep easy tonight,
  2. How do you go about finding trustworthy information & financials for international small-caps? It's a space I'd love to get into but am not sure where to begin.
  3. I'm seeing: #060505146 Thank you Interactive Browrs has some CUSIP / contract database http://www1.interactivebrokers.ch/contract_info/v3.8/index.php http://www1.interactivebrokers.ch/contract_info/v3.8/index.php?action=Conid%20Info&wlId=IB&conid=73967733&lang=en Thank you kindly...my discount broker doesn't have the BAC warrants listed. Turns out I need to call them and place a trade via phone. /Cannot wait to open an IB account
  4. Do the A-Warrants have a CUSIP #? I've been trying to locate it but can't seem to find. It's mentioned nowhere in the prospectus either, interestingly enough.
  5. I would think Google's drop is exactly the same feeling as bagging all the kardashians in the same night... :)
  6. Just to clear up my response: I was using net income numbers, not ebit and I lumped the two executives compensation together for a total of $400k. I like the business I just don't know where the margin of safety is.
  7. Do you think search quality is a competitive advantage anymore? It seems to me that Google's brand power and ecosystem (Gmail, Google maps, etc.) is creating a switching cost for Google search users. Said differently, even if Bing is a better search engine, I won't use it because I use Gmail/Gmaps/Gdrive/Gdocs quite often.
  8. The financials look good I'm just not sure I can buy the valuation. Concerns: 1) It is the software business and the only moat i see is the switching inconvenience for their current customers. That said, their current customers as you say are small suppliers who could go out of business. If they go out of business, will new market entrants use Edict? 2) Exec compensation is about $400,000...does this seem somewhat high? The company made 1.7m in net profits last year. 3) Is the market valuation a bit high? $17.5m market cap...you figure with the $3m excess cash on the B/S that leaves a net $14.5m on the operating assets....would you pay $14.5m for a software company returning about $2m/year? If we assume modest growth you're looking at probably 15-17% return for a software company with a relatively small moat.
  9. Thanks I updated my chart w/ the corrections.
  10. I agree: the majority of my BAC position is commons. However let's not forget that A-warrants are 40% cheaper than the commons. With the leverage they offer, I think they are a good way to gain additional upside exposure: Let's compose three portfolios: Portfolio 1 : 100% BAC Common Portfolio 2: 100% BAC A-Warrants Portfolio 3: 75% Common ; 25% A-Warrants Here are the results given your assumptions: 2019 Portfolio A Portfolio B Portfolio C if assume: BAC at $13.30 40 -100 5 BAC at $15 57 -45 43 BAC at $20 111 180 128.25 BAC at $30 217 449 275 BAC at $40 322 718 421 If you think BAC will be above $21-22ish by 2019, holding 25% of your BAC long position in A-Warrants is a profitable endeavor.
  11. Thanks. Going mostly to Spain. Guess that's the bargain-hunter in me ;) Then taking a trans-Atlantic ship and landing back in Florida. I'll have to ask you about your ship back, the girlfriend and I were thinking of something similar. Enjoy the bargains in Spain! :)
  12. A follow up question to the recent developments: Does anyone know more details regarding the share repurchase? Who was the private party? I'm assuming it was one of the majority shareholder/executives...does anyone have more detailed info?
  13. Q3 Report is in: http://www.intc.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=713888&ReleasesType=Financial%20News
  14. Not trying to derail your conversation here, but I was pretty concerned about Greenblatt's magic formula reported results and that study as well. I still don't understand why Greenblatt didn't post specifics on the formula--I was worried he cherry picked the best day/month specific date combo with the highest results. Warning: anecdotal evidence ahead. I spoke to a person who will remain nameless who worked on Greenblatt's magic formula website, they said it was both difficult working with him (the person managing the job made it hard to contact Greenblatt for feedback, etc.). Additionally their opinion was that the "magic formula" didn't quite work so well in real life. Relatively meaningless information on its own but just to add another dimension to the debate from someone who actually worked on that project.
  15. Victimless crime? Would you take the opposite side of one of Raj's insider trades?
  16. Everyone on the other side of his trades? Would you have taken the other side of a trade with someone who had inside information? Of course not. What about large pension fund managers who are fiduciaries to people's financial well-being in their non-working years? If they depend on pension payments and the fund cannot meet them, then either the company has to increase pension contributions which will hurt their shareholders, or cut pension benefits which hurts retirees. All so Raj and Gupta can make another buck. Now what if that retiree cannot make rent or bill payments because of their lowered benefits.
  17. Exactly, politics is a game and you can break it down mathematically. If 51% of people hold most dear a common ideology, and you can convince them you will fulfil their ideology, they will elect you. Then you can go from there.
  18. Glad the system is working...for all potential members I can say the $10 price is an absolute bargain to the discussions you will take part in here.
  19. I have to disagree completely. The idea of law and justice has evolved to the point where miscellaneous aspects of a person's life are not considered, and for good reason. What a judge/jury considers are the facts surrounding the crime committed. That is why the judge limited what the jury was eligible to hear regarding Gupta's charitable work. What does any of this have to do with his criminal actions? If he had driven while drunk and killed someone, does this logic still hold? Of course not. Again, would the same logic hold if he had drunkenly ran someone over? What should be considered is his behavior while serving his sentence. If he is deemed eligible for an early release, good for him. Unfortunately life doesn't work this way and money and political associations can "buy" one's innocence, which will most likely be the case. It's more likely that the lower man on the totel pole (Raj - i.e. the "fall guy") will be made an example of and Gupta will serve a token sentence.
  20. Thank you! I lived in Quebec for five years before moving back to New York and I miss very much the sound and cadence of the French language. Thanks again for the nostalgia! ;D
  21. I'll tell you, I know people who have owned & managed nationwide timeshare companies and it is one of the most corrupt industries which exists.
  22. Intel broke under 22 today, I'm looking to pick up some more shares if the market cap goes under 100B ($20/sh). I am wondering what the board's thoughts are.
  23. Good article, and that's what I was getting at with my post in the last page. Facebook has the most valuable collection of consumer data ever collected. If they are able to do so slowly, and in a way that doesn't annoy users, they have enormous potential to further monetize this info. -I currently have no position in FB. More than that, they have 2 billion eye balls to sell advertising to. Ask any newspaper if they could sell advertising with that kind of exposure levels. Facebook has been in business for over 7 years now, and everything I've heard is that the effectiveness of their advertising is hit-or-miss, at best. I think seven years with little competition is plenty of time to develop and monetize a successful advertising business if it were possible.
  24. Good point. I agree at some point any business has a price which makes it worth buying. My concern is that this is a situation where management is not just idiotic but unethical and borderline criminal. It seems like both decisions (accepting Intel kickbacks to support an inflated share price and divulging insider information) are made to enrich management, not shareholders or the business. Although I guess maintaining a deceivingly-high share price would be to the shareholder's benefit...provided they knew the house of cards would one day fall. According to the SEC complaint, management chose not to improve their business by incorporating lower cost/better quality AMD chips and move to higher margin products. Quote: Meanwhile Rollins told shareholders that meeting EPS was due to execution, efficiency, strong customer relations, etc. etc. So, Dell senior executives engage in unethical dealings to maintain their inflated share price. They publically misrepresent their business conditions to shareholders, and consciously resist changing their business model to higher margin products and services to keep the Intel money flowing in the short-term. I understand I am beating a dead horse here, but that is what is holding me back from making an investment. If you believe your MoS takes this into account I wish you the best in your investment and hope I am wrong. PS: Just as an aside: Buffett talks about buying a business even an idiot can run (because one day one will), but I can't recall any idiotic managers he has running his businesses. PPS: Who is this Mohnish and where can I get my hands on him!? He needs some sense talked into him! Kidding of course :)
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