LC

Ah, the ole' osmosis method! :D

Same! If any of the more experienced members of the board would like to throw tidbits of advice out to us struggling minnows regarding a career as a value analyst, it would be much appreciated to say the least!

Regulated utilities to provide power to the variety of BRKs businesses. Airspace for Netjets. Trade regulations and customs examinations for import/export. There are a host of other services provided by the government which some citizens are use to benefit them (on an absolute basis) much more than others. Are these aspects difficult to quantify? Yes, absolutely. Which is why income is used as a proxy for utility. Is it perfect? No but it is more accurate and fairer than any "flat-tax" systems. Frankly, a "per-capita fee" sounds nice in theory until you're making $40,000/year and are now living at or below the poverty line. In practice it is oppressive on lower income classes, which is why a progressive system was instituted in the first place.

Hell no (pardon my french)! Tax should be levied based on utility. Let's say I own a courier service. I get a lot more utility from roads/bridges/tunnels/mass transit than an employee taking the bus to/from work. Therefore I should be liable for more of the upkeep of those services. Warren Buffett has utilized through his businesses many times over the services our government provides free of charge, and he should be liable for more than those who utilize less.

JEF is trading at a discount to what you will obtain IF the merger goes through. So if you think there is a high certainty of the merger happening you would gain a little more in the long run by buying JEF. The deal is very likely to go through, but don't forget to factor in the Crimson Wine spin-off. JEF holders won't get Crimson shares, LUK holders will. Thanks for reminding...I was thinking about a buy JEF/sell LUK arbitrage opportunity until you reminded me of the Crimson divestiture. For the interested, the trade would have been: -Merger terms: JEF owners receive .81 shares of LUK after transaction -LUK trades @ $20.88 as of this writing -Implies a JEF share price of ($20.88 * .81) or $16.91 -JEF trades at $15.97 Therefore: Sell LUK / Buy JEF in equal dollar amounts.

It's a NY Times article...the author is more concerned with criticizing the government rather than potentially uncovering illegal financial transactions.

Buffett disciples apparently can't stand unloved, out-of-favor, depressed stocks in booming industries.

Great analysis, my mind was thinking of the quote that being a good businessman makes you a better investor and vice versa.

My uneducated guess is the risk involved. And I believe it was mentioned elsewhere that various rating agencies will rate/discount the investments differently (i.e. T-bills are given a much higher rating than equity investments) which could affect regulatory levels of capital and future business. However I am an insurance noob so this is just my armchair analysis.

I wish I was knowledgeable about the subtleties of the insurance business to ask an insightful question, but alas I must pass. Enjoy the island!

Short write-up of Vivendi: http://vijourney.wordpress.com/2012/11/08/an-updated-sum-of-the-parts-valuation-of-vivendi-buying-more-shares-also-a-brief-update-on-cmt/

Here's another issue I see with Amazon, taken from the Western Union discussion: Can Amazon raise their prices? I'm not so sure. Does that mean they don't have a moat? Not quite, if they are going to maintain themselves as the low cost/most reliable online retailer. I think it's important to realize what type of company Amazon is trying to stabilize themselves as: the low-cost online retailer with amazing shipping service. Can they execute on this is the real story.

Well the two go hand-in-hand, don't they? The Margin of Safety is the magnitude of the difference between the two (Price & What You're Paying For)

Two points I want to make: 1. How difficult is it to setup and operate as a cloud provider? Where is their advantage versus Google/Microsoft/Oracle? (I honestly have no knowledge in this area, it is a genuine question) 2. I agree regarding taking a short (or long) position. It seems overvalued but as Cardboard mentions when will the correction happen and how drastic will it be? It is a very risky position to enter and maintain. My stance is the same as Hoodlum's.

To be fair those deals are a lot less scarce than distressed businesses. That's where management comes into play: when to hold cash and wait versus when to invest it in less-than-ideal ventures.

every cent counts...

Well from a infrastructure damage standpoint this is looking like the worst storm to hit NYC. Our subways will be offline for at least 4 days to who knows how long. The tunnels are the same. The amount of water damage to downtown Manhattan is unheard of.

I think for most of these the the best bet would be capital structure arbitrage.

I should be ok in the middle of Brooklyn but my parent's home in Westchester will probably flood. We've got pumps & sandbags set up but we'll just have to see at this point!

Has your snooping uncovered anything you're willing to share? I'm always on the lookout for large caps with a moat trading around fair value. Outside of AIG/BofA/Berkshire/Fairfax I'm having trouble finding any. If the market had a serious haircut of ~30-40%, I'd love a chance to buy high quality very large-caps at "fair" value, so that would be like KO, WMT, JNJ, KFT, MMM, etc. However, for most equities, I'd need a serious haircut to start a new position. For now, I'm still snooping around for the few large-caps that are obviously trading with a good margin of safety... SJ

i think the investments per share question misses the point gio was trying to make. which is simply that, ex the short hedges & the associated short term unrealized losses & ex the rimm losses fairfaxes long only equity portfolio has appreciaTED ABOUT 20 ANNUALIZED FOR THE 9 MONTHS ENDED 9-30-12. not too shabby on the long side. timing on the short side has obviously hurt. ( and my kitten just stepped on my CAPS key, which i'm not inclined to edit... :-\ Ugh...I can't stand this type of argument...it's like saying, "Well if I didn't have a large portion of my portfolio in Enron, I'd be up 40% for the year!"

Bloomberg says the same...no real price movement...maybe the HFT algo's?

Federal Gov't sues BOA $1Bln over Countrywide's mortgages http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-us-sues-bofa-over-sale-of-toxic-mortgages-20121024,0,6778589.story

If the dividend increases I wonder how the warrants will move in regards to the adjusted strike price.

I'm actually surprised the correlation was so strong in the past: I would expect the warrants to lag the underlying stock given the time value of the option.