LC

We need more stuff like this (sarcasm): https://www.france24.com/en/20190226-black-snow-falls-siberia-blamed-killer-coal-industry So I agree there is a chance that we NEED to cause global warming because there is an impending and unpredictable ice age on the way. But I don't buy the "symmetry" argument. The man on the street asks for my wallet. Maybe he wants to mug me, or maybe he wants to add $500 in cash and hand it back to me. :-X Even if I did buy this argument about symmetry - since we don't know which way the temperature pendulum will swing, and if you believe we are bad at predicting probabilities, shouldn't we opt for the most "nature-neutral" version of harvesting energy? The point on conservatism is that traditional fossil fuels should cost more than renewables if you actually account for the externalities like the one I linked above. Therefore, if you have a reasonable choice between the two, then you should go with the one which is more neutral. That said, I understand that some areas simply do not have a reasonable opportunity to choose renewables - therefore it is even more important to encourage it where applicable.

When wind and solar are price competitive with fossil fuel, but have the added benefit of (1) being less pollutive, and (2) have a longer future runway of efficiency improvements, why are we continuing to push for fossil fuel investment?

The Gates AMA you posted is very interesting. He covers quite a bit of topics and is obviously well informed. Good reading.

Of Oscar Meyer? You’ll have to excuse the autocorrect :) I don’t believe KHC breaks out sales and volumes by brand, if I am wrong I’d be happy to be corrected. Would love to invest here if I saw the tier 2 brands were doing well. You'd have much more credibility if you spelled Oscar Mayer correctly, and attempted to back up your conclusion with some actual reasoning instead of just repeating it. ...reasoning which is going to have to deal with the fact that volumes and sales are growing.

Again I disagree. You could get the ghost of Steve Jobs to run KHC and Oscar Meyer is STILL going to suck.

Drunk redheads withstanding, there is no saving kraft singles and Oscar Meyer. It’s done - these guys need to move on and keep their relevant brands relevant.

I disagree. Wasn’t the point a few years ago for Brk to bring in 3G and do exactly what you are suggesting? It failed then and it will fail again- because the majority of their brands are relics.

The move here is to consider everything worthless except US sales of Heinz ketchup and maybe Philadelphia cream cheese. Rest of the brands suck.

Only here could we rationalize away a guy who made billions. I mean, how many of today's top "alpha" generators are billionaires? To me, it looks like the guy followed rules 1 & 2 - don't lose money, don't forget rule #1

The rabbi was an avid golfer and played at every opportunity. He was so addicted to the game that he would get withdrawal symptoms if he didn't play. One Yom Kippur the rabbi thought to himself, "What's it going to hurt if I go out during the recess and play a few rounds. Nobody will be the wiser, and I'll be back in time for services." Sure enough, at the end of the morning service, the rabbi snuck out of the synagogue and headed straight for the golf course. Looking down upon the scene were Moses and God. Moses said, "Look how terrible -- a Jew out here alone on Yom Kippur. And even worse! A rabbi!" God replied "Watch. I'm going to teach him a lesson." The rabbi stepped up to the first tee. When he hit the ball, it careened off a tree, struck a rock, skipped across a pond and landed in the hole for a hole in one! Seeing all this, Moses protested. "God, is this how you're going to teach him a lesson? He got a hole in one!" "Sure," said God, "but who's he going to tell?"

Sanjeev, those photos look incredible. Those hotels look awesome. I wish I had seen this earlier - we have a team in Mumbai and I may have been able to justify a trip. Perhaps next year.

I personally would not hang my hat on the Maserati brand. Especially not compared to Jeep for example. Not surprising sales are volatile - they are a nouveau riche brand. The move is to conservatively value Alfa & Maserati. If FACU is still undervalued with these conservative estimates, you can win two ways: 1) general re-valuation and 2) upside surprises to these conservative estimates. Obviously there are other factors at work which I am leaving out. I'm speaking in generalities because I am out of the auto space (too entrenched, too much "national industry" biases - all lead to lack of common sense) - but that would be my approach if I were to invest here.

IRM

Difficult to get an accurate figure. You can calculate the working capital accounts as a % of revenues or assets, over a period of years (assuming no major change in business operations) to get a general sense of usage. Then you can compare your averages %s to current amounts.

On the statistical side there are excellent YouTube series on all levels of probability and statistics. Ben Lambert has an excellent series on graduate level statistics. I personally prefer video lessons to textbooks but I can recommend texts if you’d like. I would also recommend a textbook in formal logic as accompaniment. Any of the intro to logic texts will do - the Hacking text would be a good starter. I personally find the latter a really useful skillset to have - all the great thinkers had some level of logic/philosophical training, and I find it useful for investment analysis as well.

The shift away from beer doesn't really bother me. Wine, liquor, beer. All have been around for centuries, I'm sure the pendulum has swung back and forth multiple times. Wine and liquor don't create the tavern/pub atmosphere like beer does - there will always be a place for it. I generally like the Coors brand. I think it has a unique value compared to say, Budweiser. This could be my Colorado bias, however. ;D Molson I think it the worst of the Canadian beers but it's like Budweiser - it's the mass market brand. I was at a Habs game and spent my $11 on a Molson or two, when I was last up there. There is something to be said about reliable, consistent, mediocrity :) So it's basically as Liberty said: So it's basically, multiple is low, they have scale, brands should have staying power. Even if it's a bit of a melting ice cube, I think it's different from say, consumer technology brands. Something like Blackberry phones were essentially completely replaced - the ice cube totally melted. Here I think, the brands may have competition, but will not really be replaced. The worse-case scenario is that it takes longer to earn my money back. Lower risk of a permanent loss of capital, perhaps higher risk of a lower return on capital.

It's beer ;D Essentially branded consumer discretionary purchases. They have decent brands (Molson, Coors) and an established distribution network. It's pretty cheap and was 10% off today. While the business may go thru ups-and-downs, especially in terms of management's execution (as we are seeing with other CPG's like Kraft-Heinz), I think product demand will remain relatively more steady (compared to say, Tide detergent).

I did the same.

I’d think you can gain some pretty good insight by tracking which congresspeople are members of certain congressional committees (finance, energy, etc.) and investigating their disclosures related to companies in those industries.

Do you know what the disclosure timelines are in relation to a transaction? From the Pelosi item it looked like 2 weeks but I don’t know for sure.

Has anyone ever used the congressional financial disclosure reports to source ideas or "coat-tailing" politicians who may have more intimate knowledge of upcoming legislation, financial data, etc. than you and I? If so, curious how you went about it.

This is just my 2 cents: I've got no horse in this race but, there have always been these special situation newsletters/blogs/etc. As oplia correctly mentions, your own due diligence is required no matter where you source your ideas - whether it be COBF, VIC, your best friend's mother-in-law, etc. So I never joined these special situation blogs because, why not just set up a tracker for 10-12 (spinoffs)/13E3 (going private)/SC-TO (tender offer) filings from EDGAR? You're doing the DD anyways. But I can understand if your time is worth paying $XX to have it pre-sorted for you. I think this website does a good job policing the advertisement / promotion stuff. I think Nate does it best - he offers a service, mentions it sometimes, but is also a regular contributor. Actually if there was one newsletter I would subscribe, it would be Nate's, because of the fact that he is a regular contributor.

Hahah for some reason I find goat videos absolutely hilarious. Here's another good one: (bit of foul language in that one)

Movement through space literally slows down time, or so says that Einstein dude ;D ;D

Lifetime value is the DCF of the marketing world. That said, subscription based models work best if you have a large subscriber base (relative to your development costs) and limited competition. Remove one of those two and it becomes a race to the bottom where customer acquisition costs takes years to recoup. In most cases I am wary of start-up subscription models. I would guess that established products/services moving to a subscription model have a higher probability of long-term success. Good discussion topic in today's business environment.