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Everything posted by LC
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I really agree with this - I think this is probably the closest one could get to defining "value investing". And I think it's a really philosophical question. We all have the ability to buy or sell any publicly-traded company in their portfolio. So asking which businesses are maximizing the the intrinsic value of your portfolio, is really asking what businesses are providing the most value to society. And then of course the price paid matters, but to me, this is a much broader and more complicated question - and more fun trying to answer.
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Vaping products use propylene glycol or vegetable glycerin as the delivery system for associated contents (nicotine, flavorings) Here is some analysis of the heating of propylene glycol: https://chemistry.stackexchange.com/questions/14771/how-does-propylene-glycol-glycerin-form-formaldehyde-acetaldehyde-when-vaporized The flavors may also be harmful when heated and inhaled. Personally, I would rather smoke a cigarette than a vape-pen. The risks are known. I am invested here because I think the valuation is attractive if we focus solely on running off the cigarette portfolio to adults. They need to get out of this nonsense that vaping is "healthier"
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Haha! For now, yes (to both)...as for tomorrow... ;D ;D
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IRM, VZ
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Bankruptcy is not a license to ignore rules
LC replied to SharperDingaan's topic in General Discussion
Creating prudent incentives within the industry, establishing a global precedent, and making an effort to quantify externalities? Canada, you've done it again! ;D -
Thoughts on Verizon? Not as great of a FCF yield (albeit close), but a better asset base I would argue.
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Thanks for posting. Ashtead looks interesting.
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Movies and TV shows (general recommendation thread)
LC replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
The first two seasons of Benedict Cumberbatch's Sherlock are some of the best TV in the past decade. Jeremy Brett's version is also incredible of course. -
Small Family Business in Canada (Trying to Buy It Out)
LC replied to valueinvestor's topic in General Discussion
Anything you can take out loans against? Margin your stocks, mortgage, etc. etc. -
Lesson 1: A man is getting into the shower just as his wife is finishing up her shower when the doorbell rings. The wife quickly wraps herself in a towel and runs downstairs. When she opens the door, there stands Bob, the next door neighbour. Before she says a word, Bob says, “I’ll give you $800 to drop that towel.” After thinking for a moment, the woman drops her towel and stands naked in front of Bob. After a few seconds, Bob hands her $800 dollars and leaves. The woman wraps back up in the towel and goes back upstairs. When she gets to the bathroom, her husband asks,… “Who was that?” “It was Bob the next door neighbour,” she replies. “Great!” the husband says, “Did he say anything about the $800 he owes me?” Moral of the story: If you share critical information pertaining to credit and risk with your shareholders in time, you may be in a position to prevent avoidable exposure. Lesson 2: A sales rep, an administration clerk, and the manager are walking to lunch when they find an antique oil lamp. They rub it and a Genie comes out. The Genie says, “I’ll give each of you just one wish” “Me first! Me first!” says the administration clerk. “I want to be in the Bahamas, driving a speedboat, without a care in the world.” Poof! She’s gone. “Me next! Me next!” says the sales rep. “I want to be in Hawaii, relaxing on the beach with my personal masseuse, an endless supply of Pina Coladas and the love of my life.” Poof! He’s gone. “OK, you’re up,” the Genie says to the manager. The manager says, “I want those two back in the office after lunch.” Moral of the story: Always let your boss have the first say Lesson 3: A priest offered a lift to a Nun. She got in and crossed her legs, forcing her gown to reveal a leg. The priest nearly had an accident. After controlling the car, he stealthily slid his hand up her leg. The nun said,”Father, remember Psalm 129?” The priest removed his hand. But, changing gears, he let his hand slide up her leg again. The nun once again said, “Father, remember Psalm 129?” The priest apologized “Sorry sister but the flesh is weak.” Arriving at the convent, the nun went on her way. On his arrival at the church, the priest rushed to look up Psalm 129. It said, “Go forth and seek, further up, you will find glory.” Moral of the story: If you are not well informed in your job, you might miss a great opportunity Lesson 4 A crow was sitting on a tree, doing nothing all day. A rabbit asked him, ”Can I also sit like you and do nothing all day long?” The crow answered: “Sure, why not.” So, the rabbit sat on the ground below the crow, and rested. A fox jumped on the rabbit and ate it. Moral of the story: To be sitting and doing nothing, you must be sitting very high up Lesson 5: Power of Charisma A turkey was chatting with a bull “I would love to be able to get to the top of that tree,” sighed the turkey, but I haven’t got the energy.” “Well, why don’t you nibble on my droppings?” replied the bull. “They’re packed with nutrients.” The turkey pecked at a lump of dung and found that it gave him enough strength to reach the lowest branch of the tree. The next day, after eating some more dung, he reached the second branch. Finally after a fourth night, there he was proudly perched at the top of the tree. Soon he was spotted by a farmer, who shot the turkey out of the tree. Moral of the story: Bullshit might get you to the top, but it wont keep you there Lesson 6 A little bird was flying south for the winter. It was so cold the bird froze and fell to the ground into a large field. While he was lying there, a cow came by and dropped some dung on him. As the frozen bird lay there in the pile of cow dung, he began to realize how warm he was. The dung was actually thawing him out! He lay there all warm and happy, and soon began to sing for joy. A passing cat heard the bird singing and came to investigate. Following the sound, the cat discovered the bird under the pile of cow dung, and promptly dug him out and ate him. Moral of the story: Not everyone who shits on you is your enemy Not everyone who gets you out of shit is your friend And when you’re in deep shit, it’s best to keep your mouth shut!
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Movies and TV shows (general recommendation thread)
LC replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
I'll throw one out - not only probably the best animated series ever, but possibly one of the best TV series ever: Avatar: the Last Airbender -
I also joined the MO club slightly after the price drop yesterday. Will be happy to hold for years, but unless there’s future crazy price movement, i am not sure I will be adding more as it is about a 10% position.
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Down 7% on aggressive FDA concerns: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fda-looking-nicotine-addicted-teens-140200378.html
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Is value investing more susceptible to sunk cost fallacy?
LC replied to clutch's topic in General Discussion
I disagree about the opportunity cost because once you learn about a particular stock or business, well that knowledge doesn't go away. Five years later you can use most of it to make a trade decision. So now five years later you can spend that time researching stock Z -
Is value investing more susceptible to sunk cost fallacy?
LC replied to clutch's topic in General Discussion
I think this is actually where value investing shines: you actually have to learn the business. Maybe you take losses initially due to the factors you mention. But maybe in 3 years you can come back and now the investment decision is easier because you have built up knowledge. The biggest “value” is this built up knowledge. -
Romo is easily the best commentator the NFL has
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Woof. Rams win it.
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Different strokes for different folks. I'm with the posters who said 1) value investing has so many meanings, two "value" investors can be on both sides of a trade, and 2) "value" investing is just "investing" So really, do whatever you think is best. Which is usually what we're all doing anyways.
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https://www.revealnews.org/blog/a-judge-unsealed-a-trove-of-internal-facebook-documents-following-our-legal-action/ In addition, there was this tidbit: What was kept sealed you ask? Well, we obviously don't know for sure, but folks seem to think the following two articles flesh it out: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/30/technology/facebook-tinkers-with-users-emotions-in-news-feed-experiment-stirring-outcry.html https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/01/facebook-advertising-data-insecure-teens
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Easier said than done. Hasn't Berkshire been trying for years to increase acquisitions in Europe? Could it just be a culture thing? Two guys from the midwest vs business owners (and in many cases family businesses) in Europe?
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Bought a little bit of IRM today. Frankly I am still torn - the business appears to be a good, stable business. However I am not quite happy with management. Debt has grown to aprox $8B from $6B over the past year or two (although to be fair debt to ebitda is relatively constant) Shares outstanding has grown from 200MM to 265MM over the past 5 or so years. Again to be fair, EPS has been seemingly constant (or constantly fluctuating). So some good, some bad. Like I said I am not convinced but open to being. A 7% yield is pretty good while i figure it out.
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VZ order went through today so saved a few % there. Bought IRM, PM, and NLSN.
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3 vampires are having a competition to prove who's the most vicious vampire among them. The strongest one started 1st, "watch this," He said as he flies so fast, about 100 miles/hour. After only 10 minutes, he comes back with blood all over his mouth. "what happened?" they asked. "did you see that house over there?" "yes?" "well.. I killed the entire family and sucked the blood dry!" "wow!? fascinating, as expected from the strongest vampire" Then the eldest one takes the next turn "watch and learn," he said as he flies even faster, about 120 miles/hour. After only 5 minutes, he comes back with blood all over his mouth and his neck. "what happened??" they asked. "did you see that village over there?" "ye..yes?" "well.. I killed every last person on that village and sucked the blood dry!" "wow!? magnificent! truly amazing, we can expect no less from the eldest one!" Finally the last turn belongs to the fastest one, "don't blink or you'll miss it" he said as he flies really fast, even faster than the other two, about 140 miles/hour. After only a mere 30 seconds, he comes back with blood all over his mouth, his neck, and his nose. "wh..what happened???" they asked. "did you see that big ass tree over there?" "ye..yes?!" "well.. I didn't"
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Great business that saved and made a lot of ordinary people money. That's the right incentive. RIP
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Bought some MO. Also bought some VZ