LC

I don't think you have to be an expert here. To use the WB quote about being approximately correct: From a birds eye view the economy has been doing great under a low interest environment for what, 7 years? Therefore, time to start raising rates. That's my "approximately correct", 1000 ft view. Regarding the minutiae as to "well they should've done XYZ 6 months ago or whatnot", well just seems like noise...trying to figure out if the guy on the scale is 200 lbs or 205 lbs.

Yes and this is reflected in a one-time change in NPV.

It was just an example. The question is really, how many intangible-driven companies can a society manage without owing hard-asset driven businesses. Will we all be Facebook employees, importing our cars, clothes, and food from Mexico? Has the balance permanently shifted towards the FAANGs of the world, or is this temporary? As the initial question asks, "what will drive both the economy and the market forward over the next generation."?

What’s happening now is a debate about what the drivers of value are—of what constitutes value in the 21st-century economy—and what will drive both the economy and the market forward over the next generation. This is the key questions. IMHO there are only so many intangible asset driven companies that society can handle. By that I mean, there can't be 100 Netflix clones, and nobody to produce TV shows and movies.

Three construction workers: an italian guy, a chinese guy, and an irish guy are sitting up on one of the beams of the empire state building during its construction, thousands of feet above the street below, having their lunch. The italian guy opens his lunchbox. "Ah spaghetti and meatballs again! If my wife cooks this one more time, I'm jumping off this damn beam!!" The chinese guy opens his: "Lo mein again!! Dammit, if my wife cooks me this one more time, I'm jumping off too!" The irish guy does the same, sure enough: "corned beef again! Dammit if my wife cooks me this again, I'm jumping with you guys!" The next day, sure enough: spaghetti and meatballs - off goes the italian. Lo mein - off goes the chinese guy. And shortly followed by the irishman and his corned beef sandwich. A few days later at the funerals, the three wives are grieving together. "Oh my god", says the italian's wife. "I knew I shouldn't have cooked him spaghetti and meatballs again." "It was all my fault", says the chinese guy's wife, "If only I hadn't cooked him lo mein!" Finally the irish guy's wife: "I don't get it... he makes his own lunch!"

A Buddhist goes up to a hot dog stand and says, "Make me one with everything" He gives the guy $10 bucks and gets a massive hot dog back. "What about my change?" The hot dog guy replies, "Change comes from within"

Very interesting, thank you

MC is most useful for convergence testing for derivative pricing models. Little to no use in 'value investing'

Bitcoin has been in the public eye for 3? 4? years now and has relatively no breakthrough public product to justify all the time and energy spent. Where is the value?

Ditto on learning to code it yourself in python or R

Instant pot is great because it is a slow cooker, pressure cooker, and sous vide all in one.

Value is difficult in wine because people have different tastes. And then there's the case that most sommeliers can't consistently identify specific wines in blind taste tests. Burgundy vs bordeaux vs boxed, with a blindfold you cannot tell. Really, it's all emotional in my opinion. So, drink a bunch of wine (:D), find types you like, and go from there.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-us-land-use/ Here’s How America Uses Its Land Good visualizations to get a sense how America is structured.

The value isn;t important, it's the ability to use a static framework to compare options. You can stick your estimated CFs for BRK and AAPL, use the t-bill rate, and see what returns a higher value. It's like a bathroom scale. We all know the scale isn't accurate, but it can still be used over time to measure relative changes.

More useful for VAR estimates and convergence testing.

Thanks for this. Picked up a set of heavyweight merino baselayers for a good price.

I would be. What brand and at what store? Was a DEWALT DW735X There was an eBay reseller listing them for 450 and eBay they had a 15% off deal. Looks like they sold out, however.

The trick with luxury brands is not talking to the people who buy the product but the people who wish they could.

Thanks to Sanjeev and everyone here who makes this one of the best investing communities I have ever been part of. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and their loved ones!

I guess it depends what you're looking for. I picked up a wood planer for about $350 but I doubt anyone here is looking for that :D Some good resources are slickdeals.net to find deals, and camelcamelcamel.com to find item price history (to see if its really a 'deal' or not). Happy shopping :)

Not sure how this guy is raising 100+ MM with SMAs

To me, it is crazy. Imagine constructing a portfolio where a relatively normal 3-week period in November can totally ruin you? Honestly, I don't think I could do it even if I tried. I say that not to make light of his situation, but essentially as a warning to myself. Literally on Nov 1 he authored a post entitled, "Option Selling Opportunities So Good They're Scary" Wow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNYNMM0hXXY&feature=youtu.be This Hedge Fund manager just lost all of his clients' money over the course of a couple weeks (hundreds of millions of dollars), made this cringy "apology" video while wearing a Rolex, then shut his site down and went dark This was a pretty sad watch. But important too as a reminder of what can happen quickly!

That is all very true. I am just posting so investors realize (1) what the company is doing and selling, and (2) who their target customer is. Many times investors are blinded by all the "platform" nonsense and think they are buying a high value company, when it may not be the case. I'm not judging the business model (I personally wouldn't buy their tools for another other than a one-off job), just trying to make sure people know exactly what they're investing into.

Old topic but I found this review on a mechanics/woodworking forum: Jacobs, like many other good old school brand names in tools, was has been bought and sold by MBAs only interested in their quarterly reports and related bonuses having no interest whatsoever in the actual business itself. The current owner is a holding company called Danaher, which seems to be among the worst with regard to tool name brands. The general theme is to buy an old well known US company that was still known for good quality tools, but struggling to stay competitive with the ever expanding crop of uneducated (in spite of college degrees) and unskilled US (and Europe) consumers interested only in lowest price to the exclusion of all else. They sell off all (or almost all) existing assets and fire everyone with the possible exception of some senior management that negotiate (usually to the detriment of others, first hand experience on that) a position for themselves in the purchasing company. Manufacturing is then moved to the cheapest third world option, producing what amount to legal brand stamped look-alike clones (called "leveraging the brand"), and then sold at only a slight reduction (or often not any at all) for what is no longer even marginally the same quality tool/part. The same thing happened to Stanley, B&S and many others. I've read about and know first hand folks who bought brand new Jacob's Super Chucks that were such visibly poor quality straight out of the box that they were returned without even being worth mounting. Others that were mounted and performed so terribly that they were deemed unusable. I've got a brand new set of B&S adjustable parallels that was so bad that they were given to me. Borderline unusable, nowhere near the quality of the quite old Starrett set I've since acquired. And I've got a set of very old B&S adjustable bore parallels that are absolutely perfect, nothing like the trash they sold in the last decade (or whatever).