LC

PETS Petmed Express.

research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WSBASE/downloaddata

FYI some of his new stuff: https://mediocre.com/ https://meh.com/

the format and presentation seemed fine to me, i disagreed with some of your comparisons (monoprice headphones vs beats, tax prep software vs car rental) as i think there's a bit of apple vs. orange going on. the car rental business has different marginal economics, barriers to entry, distribution, etc. from the software business, despite the oligopoly structure. the reason i haven't totally pulled the trigger is i'm not sure about how much i want to pay for tax act. remember, tax act came from ex-turbotax developers as a lower-cost competitor to turbotax. what's stopping anyone else from doing the same if taxact decides to raise prices to turbotax/HRB levels?

Yes fantastic, this is exactly what I was sensing intuitively when observing the price movements of these instruments, but you are far better at communicating what is happening. This is caused by the skewness you were talking about earlier with ni-co? I presume if so, the effect is magnified by the time of the instruments. I.e. buying the 2-year ITM leap, selling after the stock declines, and buying the 1 year ATM leap will have a less pronounced effect than using the warrant + call option instead.

What about 2 year LEAPS? I remember buying some of the $12-strike ITM call options because the "cost of leverage" at the time was like, 5%. The ATM leaps had a more expensive cost of leverage (maybe 7% iirc). Obviously the ATM leaps were more profitable as the stock marched upwards, but how were they a better buy despite the higher cost of leverage? The only reason I can think of is because you can get greater exposure per $.

Wouldn't it be better off to just buy the deep ITM option in the first place, in terms of minimizing premium paid? I guess the downside to that is you need more capital for the same exposure.

I dunno, maybe they are leaving money on the table for their friends on the street. But I'm pretty much stretching it to come to that conclusion, it's the best I've got and probably blindly optimistic.

I still can't wrap my head around how Warren Buffett can go on and on about how a 5-year period is what he wants to be judged on, then when he doesn't hit that benchmark, how can he not apologize profusely to all of us while simultaneously committing seppuku right there on the spot? So sarcasm aside, I don't see where Pabrai himself said that disclosing returns was illegal. That appears to be the journalist's comment. Additionally, this is an edited article. Who knows what was cut out, or placed out of context? Finally, what Pabrai DID say was "There is nothing intelligent that one can say about short periods like 10 months. I never make investments with any thought to what will happen in a few months or even a year". I agree with this statement, I'm sure many here do as well. Finally, on a general note: Pabrai doesn't owe the public anything. Nobody has to watch his videos, read his interviews, or invest with him. I've learned a ton from him. I didn't think the interview was anything odd.

FYI great (if not heated) discussion: I am learning here.

Also, the rest of that website is amazing for resources. Take a look at the write-up on Abraham Lincoln. I just missed going to their meeting this year, but from what contact I've had with the folks there, they seem really kind.

Yeah, not a pretty picture, especially when taken with whistlerbumps' comment above.

Don’t worry… Next time I want to share something with Liberty, I’ll send him a PM… Promised! ;) Cheers, Gio Please do not do that. It is easy to skip posts that do not interest me. Harder to do the other way around (reading what is not written.) ;) Agreed, I find these discussions informative even when not participating.

Most investors strive fruitlessly for certainty and precision, avoiding situations in which information is difficult to obtain. Yet high uncertainty is frequently accompanied by low prices. By the time the uncertainty is resolved, prices are likely to have risen." Guy/Mohnish said something to the effect of "uncertainty does not equal risk". So one thing I try to look for is places with high uncertainty but low risk. Perhaps a low cost oil producer would fit this bill, looking at today's energy landscape.

He did a bit of merger arbitrage I believe, but back in those days I believe the spreads were far juicier. He also took activist positions.

I'm in!

SD, how do you think about hedging? Do you hedge 100% exposure?

Interesting how relatively poor the warrants have been as an investment, since Plan wrote that blog post many moons ago...

No idea, perhaps it is up to the SEC to determine and does not follow a fixed schedule? How can you tell Buffett has a confidential position?

i use whalewisdom to quickly see 13f changes. does anyone know of a more intuitive one? also, does anyone have a good website for insider trades?

If prices stay at this level can they afford $9b on capex plus the dividend? I suppose if they do in fact leverage the B/S to make acquisitions that will help.

What does that mean? Closing stores faster? That sounds to my ear as the easiest solution but perhaps not the optimal solution. I don't know store-by-store economics so management is to be trusted here. I'm not sure how much of the retail ops are left to rationalize (frankly I haven't followed their progress in like 3-4 months).

Curious why Pabrai funds and dhando holdings will co-exist. Why not wind down the funds and concentrate on dhando? That was Buffett's playbook, and will remove any appearances of conflicted interest.

It's on my watch list. I'm waiting for management to make more progress fixing past retail errors.

Yes according to management things appear to be clearing up - but as you say, more hiccups could emerge (or not). I want to buy at a price which implies hiccups, thereby skewing the upside/downside in my favor. The question is what is that price, and how many hiccups does it imply?