Spekulatius

I think the short squeeze could have been a lot worse had Robinhood didn't what i did. Looking back now, listening to some commentaries, it seemed that the wobbling in the S&P500 in January may have at least had some relation to the infinite squeeze that didnt but could happen. Like a vortex that what just slightly pulling the carpet (S&P500), due to the hedge fund leverage. Sure, this is a lot bigger than GameStop, but as El-Elrian said today at Bloomberg, market was smelling and was trying front run hedge fund who wanted to make a dash for liquidity. I'll try to find the stat of the out of wack the position where. I realize it is silly to think that such a irrelevant company (GameStop) could cause the almighty S&P500 to wobble. On DFV, i think due to the unneeded popularity that this caused (and because he is a nice person) he felt obligated toward his Brethren and not just dump his shares. Yes, the wobbling in the broader indices and in particular some hedge fund hotel stocks in January was definitely caused by the WSB crowd. I think the root cause was that long/short funds were getting obliterated by the many short squeezes and they had to reduce gross exposure which means selling longs and covering shorts. And those that weren’t getting obliterated were probably probably getting scared and reduced gross exposure anyways. You see these type of things happening when things get a bit crazy in the market and at times the movement of individual stocks seem to make no sense fundamentally,

Yes, this makes not sense. I do think it is likely that they find a low cost/ no cost news source and just use this - somebody will cave in for a leg up from the competition. This will lead to less diversity but so be it.

So your average holding period is about 18 months? Is that right? So i guess your holding period seems 'forever' as it is more than double the average period now for the average crowd. i've started doing 'this' about 20 years ago and one of the most striking features has been the unrelentling rise in competition. Some days i wish i'd have started in 1957 or something but then again, now is probably one of the greatest times to be alive. I need someone to tell me what my top 1% of my ideas are, because I have no clue myself. The present is almost always the best time to be alive. Exceptions were probably the 14 century (epidemics) in Europe ir if you were born in Germany before 1618 or 1914 (very ugly wars).

I'm proud of you for doing that, Pupil :-). Hopefully, it was 30-year long. Take the free money when you can get it and pay it back in deflated dollars :-). Same rate that I got a few month ago for. A 30 year mortgage. That’s was my third mortgage for my house bought in 2018. I refinance for every 0.5% down even though my wife gives me flak each time. I watch the 30 year treasury TYX and it is currently at 2.07% , up from 1.3%. It is basically back to 2019 levels.

Adding to VNT and bought some starter shares in VRTX

Reducing CBOE a bit more.

At this point, I suspect the hearing is about informing the house not trying to accuse Mr Gill of a crime, it would be a tragedy and diversion of they did. I also think the letter is very well written and it’s true. I watched his streams on YouTube and there are very clear disclaimers and I found them informative. I don’t know if he broke any regarding his employment, but that would be inconsequential anyway as regards to what happened with those short squeezes and GameStop. So I hope the house takes this as an opportunity to inform themselves rather than find a scapegoat. whatever happened and went wrong here, there are much bigger fish to fry here - the CEO‘s of Robinhood, Melvin Captital management, Citadel, the fellows running the clearinghouse etc. Anyways, I will watch his testimony offline I suppose and hope all goes well.

I found this fascinating paper in a Reddit link: https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=484029088111001006073096089006124072016089038039060053007117008027101109086070094109010114056102019017037122126017076092001119048032033082076106112103120089107007108007092010066127087083116113078084112013080121119068105018026076012080024093073071113085&EXT=pdf&INDEX=TRUE https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3776421

Roaring Kitty‘s (Gill‘s) letter to the US house: https://docs.house.gov/meetings/BA/BA00/20210218/111207/HHRG-117-BA00-Wstate-GillK-20210218.pdf Wishing him luck and really hope it goes well for him.

Reduced CBOE after the stock jumped due to 8-k disclosure which indicated that management may be concerned about a takeover. While a takeover is a possibility, this stock had disappointed me too many times and the expense guidance for 2021 is atrocious.

Bought a few shares and might add more. Reasonably cheap at a ~11x PE and they gained quite a bit of scale and diversity with the WellCare and now Magellan merger. Management comp is a bit on the rich side, imo.

PDD is MLM which raises some concerns for me. So far, it has worked out well.

If you don’t use margin often or deal with international stocks, there really isn’t a reason to use IB any more.

Checking in on my lunch break and this thread is gold: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lkvzj7/someone_help_please/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 I have nothing to add.

Banned? I just don't have enough Karma to post but I still have access. Yes only banned from posting, but I can still look. I should have posted something like this which got 2370 upvotes, despite being off the mark (PLTR down ~9% today):

I was just banned from WSB (been member since 2018 but rarely posted) for not having "enough karma" after making a semi intelligent post that didn't contain any rockets or other emojis. Be careful out there.

The US Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Statement is where people are getting this idea from: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0011 The Treasury General Account balance sits at ~$1.6t - so ending March at $800b is a big move with big repurcussions......except I don't believe Yellen! Why? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let's go to the previous Quarterly Refunding Statement from November. End of December TGA balance = $1.728 Trillion. How about the one before that from August? End of September TGA balance = $1.781 Trillion. wabuffo That was Powell's work, not Yellen's ;D

I would never short this Sometimes the best moats are the simplest The fact that zoom just works is plenty a moat compared to their brain dead competitors They have excellent product market fit and this could go way higher I have used Zoom and other products both at work and for fun for remote meetings and what exactly is the difference? They all work.

Post this value unlock, I have to figure what to do with my Vivendi shares, maybe move back to ODET? I bought Vivendi precisely because I wanted to own UMG very cheaply and once that is accounted for, the remainder of the business in Vivendi looks pretty mediocre. Decisions, decisions...

I am sure it is nothing, but this chart looks pretty bullish to me for interest rates: I am starting to wonder when we need to adjust our discount rates, especially for growthy stuff. I am not a chartist per say, but found that the 200 DMA is often a reasonable indicators of trend reversals.

I refinanced at 2 3/4% for my 30 year loan with a no/low cost refinance this year, so not sure what you are talking about. Only idiots believe they mortgages will get cheaper if FRE/FNM get privatized, imo. Other than that, I agree with your concerns regarding debt.

US stimulus vs Europe stimulus: https://twitter.com/lynaldencontact/status/1360618998975655944?s=21 Looks like we are a bit overstimulated. What happens when the drugs wear off?

I haven’t bought enough of SIMO either and sold some at ~$50 (yeah my low conviction bets perform better than my higher conviction bets lately) but I am not sure if the semi shortage is going to persist. Allegedly, some of it due to the chinese hoarding chips due to fear of US export restrictions, but that has become less likely after the election (perhaps). The chip industry in the last has been prone to extreme boom bust cycles (inventory build), but that has mellowed out with bettet supply chain control for more than a decade, but now with COVID-19 it is really hard to tell what is normal or not. The fact is that chip prices, memory, PC’s (desktop, notebook) and tablets are all seeing elevated demand and it is reflected in pricing. I would think that this is likely to normalize, but it might take a year.

He invested in GD before with a sizable position, but this was a good while ago. I would not be too surprised if he bought a basket of defense contractors, but I think not. GE is definitely a strong possibility. Another one is that he keeps adding to a basket of Pharma stocks (MRK, BMY were added last quarter if I remember correctly).

I remember him from his BOX pitch from a couple of years ago. He got this stock moving for a bit, but he possibly picked the worst performing SAAS Stock back then. That said, he has a knack for spotting trends and marketing.