Spekulatius

Looks like a great result with strong organic growth. I own just a little unfortunately (recently bought some shares). One thing that caught my eye is increasing intangibles QoQ from $8.323B to $8.459B - where do those come from? They are writing off intangibles with amortization to the tune of $75M every quarter. is this a currency effect from the rising GBP or EUR? I guess that must be a reason because I don't think they purchased anything. It's not really material but more of a curiosity question.

I can’t vouch for this being correct, but it does pour some cold water on the BB bulls. i do think it is correct that all German car manufacturer develop their own operating system: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/ld4k0x/why_i_am_bearish_on_bb_technical_analysis/

I don’t think this is going to age well: https://i.redd.it/qe88l45wtkf61.jpg This probably costs a fortune to remove.

Edit: I think Spek is referring to this: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1804591/000095010321001779/dp145636_ex9902.htm ................. Yeah, the DNA testing revenues is not why you would buy this. $199 or $99 a non-repeatable pop does not multibillion business make. The value is in the genetic info library they collect. If I was them (or another DNA testing startup I have looked at), I'd do the tests for free and capitalize on the data. So there's no "pivot to therapeutics" - genetic info use for therapeutics IS the only business that makes sense. Not saying that it's cheap here. The right question to ask though is what that genetic info store worth for the right applications. Interesting enough, this is exactly what DeCode Genetics (and Iceland company that used to trade on the Nasdaq) tried to do ~20 years ago and they failed back then. Decode is mentioned in 23andme filings. They still exist and I have seen them being mentioned a couple of times as it relates to fighting COVID-19 in a Iceland. i think their business model didn’t work out and they went private years later. Perhaps the same business model works better now ~20 years later but developing drugs is expensive and takes a long time.

It was quite the roller coaster gamble but I sold the put at a very nice profit. Would have made more to go long with momentum and sell on the surge but the returns for a week and two days is not bad either. The amount of pumping and dumping right now is crazy. A trader’s market for sure. In the end, the Reddit rebellion will indicate all they did is poor gas on the fire of a squeeze and then provide liquidity so the hedge funds driving the value up, could get out clean at the top.A Hedge fund war and they were the collateral damage where they happily fell on the sword as if they were righteous. Melvin went down but there is too much smart money out there to outfox them all. The story has played out many times. The story that I am most curious to read is the story on the brokers and why billions were needed at Robinhood and others to shore up the clearing house. Something else went on that we don’t know the details of yet. Good luck everyone. What I really hope from this episode is that regulators are looking at the financial plumbing and improve on the T+2 settlement. It is an ridiculous artifact at this time and I wonder if other brokerages could blow up when folks start to trade with ridiculous speed which is now conceivable with no commission trading (not that’s it s good idea). I know we like to dunk on Robinhood, but the problem wasn’t Robinhood per say, it was their customer base and frictionless trading (or at least it appears to be frictionless)

Numbers looks iffy. Revenues are going to be cut in half. Pivot to therapeutics. Interesting enough, they just raised $82.5M in December last year in a small round let by Sequoia, but we don’t know the implied valuation for this round. I suspect it was a down round. Implied valuations could find all over the place from $1.5B, $2.5B and $3B... take your pick, so a SPAC deal for $3.5B and presumably a nice pop post IPO sounds about right.

I mean, they're just investigating, no judgement is made yet. But I get your point, of all the shady crap that goes on, this is the one they decide to delve into... Remember the good old days, when the SEC were literally handed a full blown case into a hundred billion dollar ponzi scheme, and did absolutely nothing with it? If they did not investigate, there would be an outcry that they are not investigating... ::) It’s in the news everywhere, so politicians have to take a look. In my opinion, there is nothing to investigate, it’s all out there in his YouTube videos. Maxine Waters should watch a couple of them from 5-6 month ago when he got started and I bet she could learn something, if she cared.

Actually AGM is similar (guarantees Agricultural loans backed by land). 4.2% dividend yield and 9x PE. I don't own it, but it looks like a decent value to me.

He has got many things to take care off, Blue Origin, likely philantrophy, a new squeeze (Sanchez). Should be enough to keep him busy. I also think this was planned and probably even delayed by COVID-19.

Silver demand from solar cells is supposed to go down because the industry innovates around using less silver by using new process techniques as well replacing/stretching the silver with alloys. this has been going on for while and is likely to continue. Also, aren't the shorts in silver mostly the miners hedging their production?

The derating is found around the entire insurance space and did not just occur for MKL. For example ORI used to trade a premium to book and when I bought it, it was at 0.7x book and ORI even benefits from lower interest rates (refinances occur when interest rates go lower and ORI title insurance business benefits from this. MKL is really hurt by lower interest rates as evident by the lower book value growth for the last couple of years.

When you watch his early videos, you realize, he is a very rational deep value investor. He apparently bought several deep value positions like Teck, CWH , RFP, Alcoa and a bunch of other commodity in March. Some of those were ten baggers. GME was just one of those things with a skewed risk reward back then. So I think he would usually sell out, it this is in fact a very atypical situation in terms of the publicity he got. That's also a very good question to ask. He got 13M in cash. Yeah, he can liquidate the rest for 20M yesterday or 7M today. But really is it better to go out with positive publicity or with "screw everyone I'm rich now"? On yet another hand, nobody ever gets out on top. So CoBF is yet again Monday Morning quarterbacking telling DFV when to get out at the top two days after the fact. I'm sure if he listened to local experts, he would have sold his position maybe at 500K, maybe at 1M tops. ::) The pothead in the big short went out at the top. Gave a big fuck you to everyone (everyone!) and then moved to a Caribbean island to chill and smoke pot. Now I'm not anywhere close to a fan of pot, but that guy's my hero. He didn't make it in the movie of course. I'd probably taken 20M too. But I'd never gotten to 20M on such investment so ./shrug. And for a young guy publicity/reputation might be more beneficial. 8) Yeah, the reputational aspect shouldn’t be underestimated. i bet he could easily raise $1B in a heartbeat, if he plays his cards right, just based on his reputation.

The answer is 20 some million dollars. Plus why is making a trade these days equivalent to screwing somebody over? He would be selling to willing buyers at the going market price? His GameStop position is so much more than a value investment... it's a modern and more effective "Occupy Wall Street" This whole narrative of “sticking it to the man” and “short squeeze the suits” is going to cost these folks a lot of money. RK just seems like a smart guy who was making money in the stock market in his own way. It is interesting how this later get put into a totally different and “moral” narrative, which in my opinion is BS.

When you watch his early videos, you realize, he is a very rational deep value investor. He apparently bought several deep value positions like Teck, CWH , RFP, Alcoa and a bunch of other commodity in March. Some of those were ten baggers. GME was just one of those things with a skewed risk reward back then. So I think he would usually sell out, it this is in fact a very atypical situation in terms of the publicity he got.

Thanks, I wasn’t aware that he posts screenshots every day. So now his only positions are GME calls and stocks? He had almost a hundred different positions 6 month ago when he showed his master spreadsheet in his streams? Did he sell off everything else?

I wonder if Roaring Kitten /DFV has sold all his shares. He relies heavily on charts to assess sentiment and he can’t like what he sees currently.

Interesting post. What numbers exactly are you looking at when comparing GOCO with SLQT? Customer acquisition cost / lifetime value etc?

There was no intellectual framework in how to select stocks. It was full of discussions about how Lynch selected individual stocks, groups of stocks...alot of it based on "buy what you know". When I tried to invest using his methods, it was pure luck...half the time I made some money, half the time I lost money. It worked for him, but none of it could be duplicated! I finally woke up when I read Buffett's Letters, "The Intelligent Investor", and finally "Securities Analysis". That's when my batting average finally started to improve and the fundamental way I selected stocks was consistent, methodical and would work for the rest of my life. I got far much more value out of just reading 10-Q's and 10-K's in my first six months, than I did from Lynch's book. Kiyosaki's books were good in just changing my mindset in how to invest, why buy businesses, and to create passive income. But Ben Graham's books and Buffett's Letters changed my life forever! I will be eternally grateful to them! Cheers! I agree that Lynch’s books aren’t really good for investors getting started. At least by themselves, they are probably more dangerous than helpful. They are good in terms of how to get started doing research and find interesting stocks, but it doesn’t tell you about the next steps on how to look underneath the hood.

Front running the Reddit/WSB crowd is the 2021 version of value investing.

There isn’t any cheap labor to be had in these countries either.

https://www.freseniusmedicalcare.com/en/news/preliminary-announcement-2021targets/

Thanks for the explanation. obviously, my info was incorrect as far as stock clearing is concerned - yours makes a lot of sense.

They settle trades themselves. Others use a clearinghouse which reduces capital requirements. The explosion in trading, higher stock prices for certain securities and account influx has made the capital raise necessary, at least that’s my take, based on limited info.

LOL, new name of the combined entity: Standard Oil

This is what loosing a WSB looks like: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/melvin-capital-lost-more-than-50percent-after-betting-against-gamestop-wsj.html