Spekulatius

All electronic components go down in price over time. Sole supplier does not mean that there is a Deep moat, it’s just cheaper to use the same components to save costs. I am guessing that the agreements with the customers have a costdown scheme with increasing volume, as this is common in the car industry ( and anywhere else for that matter). I think low cost may be Sensata‘s moat to some extend. Most of their manufacturing is located in low cost countries (Bulgaria, China etc).

I agree on the dealership experience, it’s often terrible, the various points, the car makers tried to take control back, but I think it has always failed on the massive capital required and the ability to get the reach. The issue that Tesla has, is that they either will have to spent massive amounts of capital to get the distribution, or is he will have trouble servicing their customers , as seems to be the case right now.

They could just spin of the investment ban and Merril Lynch will be born again. But at what multiple would the investment banking standalone trade? GS trades at 1.1x book and that’s a better operation than BAC investment banking operations. JEF trades below tangible book. I can buy a bank like PNC at 11.5x earnings and they don’t own any investment banking assets. So I don’t think BAC can unlock much value by spinning of investment banking right now.

Hahahahahahahahahaha, I'm cracking up!!! Maybe you could share with the rest of us what's that funny. The new board member has no discernible automotive and as it looks not even really business experience. I think it is fair to say that she would never been elected, if she were male. What exactly does an “expert in geopolitical and macroeconomic climate” do and how is this relevant for GM, one might want to ask? Edit: Screw it. Life is too short. CoBF is completely toxic board now. Good bye and thanks for all the fish. Have fun. Other than some over the top rhetoric , I don’t think this thread in GM is toxic. The new board a member certainly has a very lightweight resume, which can be questioned as far as eligibility is concerned for a board like GM. I do disagree on bashing management based on lack of stock performance, especially since many peers haven’t done better and some of them much worse.

The self liquidation exercise is just enough exercise in math, the reality is different. If a management team would do this, all the stakeholders (employee, suppliers, customers, dealers etc) would start to bail and the cash flows would crater much quicker than you would think. Plus politicians would step on and management would be on the hot seat very quickly.

I have nothin against wood, but it is likely they there is better material available at some point in thr future. horses were used for thousands of years too, until the automobile can along. In Germany al lot of autoclave aerated concrete (YTONG brand name ) is used. Lightweight fire resistant and great insulator. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoclaved_aerated_concrete the cost of builsid a house in stone or prefab stone and wood structures is. It not that differnt than you would believe. It’s how the rest of the world does it, just hate US and Canada is stuck building barns that go for houses for some reason. 8). Oddball is correct that wood can last a long time. There are houses with wood structures from medieval times around and it is unlikely that any concrete structure will survive that long without restauration . Also, even when stone is used for walls, wood is still used for the roof structure. the other possibility is that thr properties of wood are enhanced by treating it or infusing it with other materials making it less vulnerable. I know we have pressure treated wood, but it is likely they chemist sill come up with something they makes it fire resistant, invulnerable to pests and moisture resistant for a long time.

I don’t like the low gross margin (36%) and low R&D spent (4%). This looks like a commodity business and there is a lot of leverage.

this may have gotten lost in the sauce, so i am re-posting it. i think this is one of the most important things that no one is talking about. has anyone thought of what would happen if they simply decided to file 10Ks rather than 20Fs? why is this the most important thing? why would they decide to file 10ks? They're a NV based company right? Have they talked about this? Is there an economic impact you are alluding to or just some kind of IFRS /GAAP thing? I don’t see how it matters whether it’s they publish a 10-K or 20F. The bigger question is what are they going to do with the cash from the Magneti sale? I am guessing they have to pay some taxes on this and also the EBIT will be lower by $500 M € going forward.

1) I have read it and I think the author has been mostly proven wrong. there was a detailed comment regarding that Adresse the ma8n thesis, that maintenance Capex is underreported. one can conclude from this that the author does not really understand the accounting and the balance sheet. 2) ENB was able to monetize assets for $7B CAD releaving pressure on thr balance sheet 3) ENB beat DCF projections 4) Line 3 replacement appears on track. Nothing came to pass as predicted by the author.

Is this Cequence energy? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CQE.TO/profile?p=CQE.TO I don’t see the 20 bagger here, but haven’t looked to hard.

It is even worth than previously calculated: (All numbers in CAD) Long Term Debt: 59940 Short Term Debt: 1014+4779 Preferred: 7747 Redeemable noncontrolling interests: 4433 Minorities: 6100 -Cash: 622 Shares out: 1715 EV: 83391 + 1715*41.49 = 154546 EBITDA: 11476 (last 6 months annualized, added back Asset impairment) EV/EBITDA: 13.46 Debt/EBITDA: 7.3 With the latest deal to take over the partnerships they will reduce my calculated leverage, but of course you have more shares outstanding after that deal. So its probably a wash for EV/EBITDA, because the partnerships also trade around 12x/EV/EBITDA right now. I can`t really see how they can afford to sustainable raise the dividend by 10% each year going forward. They were able to do so in the past because they increased the leverage each and every year. I wouldn`t be surprised if they have to slash the dividend if we get a tight credit market. KMI on the other hand has already gone through this and is able to fund its cashflow need internally. Please find my mistake, because i really want to invest here but the numbers don`t allow me to do it right now. Two errors- you added in the current portion of the long term debt, but it is included in the LT debt already. So you are double counting the $4.8 CAD in debt. Y2018 cash flow is $12.5 not $11.5B CAD. Edit, just noticed that above is incorrect and the $4.8B CAD “current portion of LT debt“ needs to be added to the debt

^ Thank you. My link posted above is in fact broken.

Hahahahahahahahahaha, I'm cracking up!!! Maybe you could share with the rest of us what's that funny. The new board member has no discernible automotive and as it looks not even really business experience. I think it is fair to say that she would never been elected, if she were male. What exactly does an “expert in geopolitical and macroeconomic climate” do and how is this relevant for GM, one might want to ask?

What would you build with? Steel. 50 years from now possibly composite materials. Why do you think they will become cheaper than wood? Competing materials may not be cheaper, but they are simply better. Cost savings may come from lower labor and build costs. Wood is a crappy material. It easily degrades when exposed to moisture, it’s flammable, quality is inconsistent and it is labor intensive to harvest and to build with. I guess it will be around for a long time, but it may not be the material of choice 50 years from now.

I think your numbers are a bit off. I do not believe that ENB leverage is 6.4x EBITDA. n their investor presentation is is noted as being 5x, which does not include the preferred , which I think are roughly $7B CAD, so they would make around 5.6x all inclusive. Also note they ENB recently sold assets for 7B CAD. I think the picture gets clearer once the assets sales and the retructuring of the MLP subs is complete. Right now, at current prices ENB DCF is around 4.35 CAD/ share, which translates into a 10%+ cash yield. ENB is also on track to increase their DCF by 20% YoY. KMI has a bit lower leverage, but I think their assets overall are of somewhat lower quality. For example about 15% of KMI cash flows are from the CO2 segment, which is an E&P in disguise and really deserves a 5x multiple only. I own both KMI and ENB, but own more ENB. At current valuations, I prefer ENB over KMI. In fact, I added a few shares today.

I highly recommend going through the 9/11 investor presentation to anyone interested in NXPI: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?t=1&item=VHlwZT0yfFBhcmVudElEPTUyNzQ0OTB8Q2hpbGRJRD02OTk5NTU=

Thanks for above input, this is highly appreciated. I bought some BASFY today since I know this company well.

What would you build with? Steel. 50 years from now possibly composite materials.

10.5x EBITDA for a chemical business seems high. Even businessmen in protected niches like paint, trade at 11x and DWDP has a lotmof cyclical components. Peer EMN trades at 8.3x EBITDA and peer BASF at ~7x (—probably a bit high ex their E&P and refinery business). The only business line within DWDP that deserves a higher multiple is Agro, but it seems to be a small part of the overall company.

Actually, i think market performance and GNP growth arnt necessarily correlated. We are starting to see increases in labor costs and going forward most likely inflationary pressures from the trade war, which in addition to interest rates aren’t necessarily good for the stock market. I believe we could see falling stock prices even if we don’t have a recession, simply due to multiple compression ( higher interest rates) and a reduction in profitability (due to inflationary pressures).

Agreed, but I have seen some really whacky prices with semis over the years. also, the business can turn on a dime and run cold for 2-3 quarters. In the long run, this looks like winner, but the ride could be a bit bumpier than envisioned. I bought a few more today as well.

I think there are ways to get screwed that are more fun.

Yeah, I view this as an investment (long-term appreciation & diversification). I am not a huge fan of gold (physical). For people who are fans of gold, why not just own some real estate and put some 30 year mortgage on it. Not a house that you live in, but a decent property that you can rent out to someone else. Utilize a barbell approach and buy some guns as hedges. I mean, if sh$t really hits the fan, wouldn't you want to own guns than gold? Agreed. A House with a 30 year mortgage had a nice hedge against rising interest rates build in. if interest rise, the value of thr house may go down (higher cap rate), but if mostly financed with any 30 year mortgage, it wouldn’t matter, since the cost to carry would remain the same or in a market to market world, the value of the mortgage would decline, possibly faster then the value of the house, because the house would benefit from higher inflation ( via Rent increases presumably). If interest go down, one can refinance. What would worry me about trees is if wood is even a construction material any more 50 years from now? If not, wood prices may be much much lower.

On the topic of this Thread, I bought some FDX and TOL today. I also added a bit of NXPI. TOL trades for 1.05x tangible book, If I see this correctly. I think that actually lower than during the financial crisis when they were making losses. I am also tempted buying some FCAU or EXOR Holding stock.

When I was in my 20s "Trashy" could be a rewarding quality in a Friday night date candidate ;) ;)..... followed by Drama and a hangover! :o Been there, done it. But as one gets older, the quality aspect becomes more important. Seems the same with stocks actually.