Spekulatius

I see this a bit differently. A company should to haven’t to do financial engineering to have their shares increase in line with intrinsic value. Sometimes it happens that intrinsic value and share prices disconnect. I have stocks that I owned for 5 years and that safe down 19-15% (not counting dividends), where thr IV has probably increased by 20-30%. These things happen. The management foremost responsibility is to take care of the business, not to manage the share price. I have found that a fixation on share price can be counterproductive for management. It is what it is and how value stocks are born.

I think the rising interest rates apparently causing interest margin pressure and somewhat related RE in NYC falling outa pressure on OZRK’s stock. Nothing really new, but just more of the same. https://therealdeal.com/2018/08/09/nycs-resi-market-hasnt-been-in-a-funk-like-this-since-2009-heres-whats-gone-wrong/

I agree. I hold some OTC stocks and also get funny marks with Fidelity, IB and with Scottrade ( when I had them). It doesn’t concern me at all, but I can see this being a nuisance when you manage other people’s money and the funny mark gap owns to be at the end of the quarter. Of course, if you have a KT view, it shouldn’t matter. I've got to disagree...If TDA can't tally OTC correctly...what else are they F'king up? I'm not talking about small amounts or percentages either...this is major goofs. Even if you look at the spreads, and the likely trade price on the otc's, it still doesn't come close to the errors that TDA is making. Scottrade had NO problem at all doing this. I think at least with IB and possibly with Fidelity, they don’t get the bid ask correct. I have seen them sometimes value OTC stocks based on the last trade, or based in thr last bid. the problem is that at least IB often does not show the bid ask correctly, so I can see how they mark the stock incorrectly (I have seen some obscure stocks I own being valued at close to zero, even though the last trade (which may have been days ago) was for $1000 +/ share. Personally, I This does not bother me at all. The bigger problem is that I can’t rely on IB’s bid/ask spreads for trading, I need to log in Fidelity (which is usually correct, but ironically does not allow to buy this stock) to obtain the bid ask spread, before I put an order in IB.

Dairy farmers seem to have political influence, same in Europe, where there are a lot of subsidies for farmers and milk too. I think the problem is that there are lot of small farms which aren’t very productive and larger ones, which tend to be more productive. So if subsidies were canceled, you would see complained and stories in thr news about small farmers going bankrupt/closing shop.

Surely the infrastructure bottleneck is only an opportunity for ENB in as much as they are able deploy a relatively small (relative to the base) amount of additional capital? That’s hardly transformative to profitability. Whereas if additional pipe causes the gas price to (say) double, that is definitely transformative for an E&P. Would you mind sharing how you value ENB? I value ENB on both EV/EBITDA and more importantly on DCF/share (similar to owners earnings). ENB trades at a 10% DCF yield currently, which is way too cheap, given their ability to growth the dividend in the high single digits (goal is 10% for a couple of years). Their assets have a high moat for the most part and the future cash flows can be estimated with a very high predictability. I think even 8% DCF yield may be cheap given RNB asset quality and their current growth profile, which gives you a 50% return potential within 2-3 years. Note that ENB is more like a liquid play in Canada and most Ng transmission assets are in the US (from the SE/SEP merger), but the same logic applies.

He is compounding losses consistently. This requires quite some skill to do it consistently in a way Einhorn does it in his „hedged“ Fund: https://www.gurufocus.com/news/747704/david-einhorn-nears-record-losses-with-september-decline

Seems to me that Infrastructure is the bottleneck and one should go long Pipeline companies? I own a boatload if ENB, which is exceptionally cheap (imo) and pays you to wait. No need to overthink this and ness with E&P’s. That’s how I look at this. There might’ve good deals to be had in E&P stocks, but it’s hard to pick the winners, imo,

I agree. I hold some OTC stocks and also get funny marks with Fidelity, IB and with Scottrade ( when I had them). It doesn’t concern me at all, but I can see this being a nuisance when you manage other people’s money and the funny mark gap owns to be at the end of the quarter. Of course, if you have a KT view, it shouldn’t matter.

Selling LP Units often incurs high taxes. The reason fir this is that distributions often are mostly return of capital and hence lower the tax basis. This makes it often uneconomical to sell LP units, after holding them für a while. Also as mentioned before, LP like the GP being invested along them. This makes GP- LP conflicts less likely and also underpins confidence for capital raises.

I believe it is possible and has occurred, but is a rare occurrence. I believe it can occur when the fiduciary duty if the GP is breached and may depend on the partnership agreement. In any case, the hurdle is very high for the LP’s to remove the GP.

2 packs of Laughing cow cheese wedges at Amazon for $16.95 are the real ripoff: The Laughing Cow, Creamy White Cheddar Flavor, 6 Oz, 8 .75 Oz Wedges (2 Pack) (White Cheddar) https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00Y4K45CQ/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_tai_CdcTBbJ1DH9H8

Yes, this is exactly my thinking. There is no painless way to fix this. I would not be surprised if Warren gets a call in his bathtub. It has happened before...

Thanks all for checking. GCCO is fairly obscure, so that’s why I like it for a litmus test.

Doesn’t having a stake in the subs or event them from losing control over them? I think at least theoretically, it is a possibility to lose control, if an activist came in.

Looks like some very modest changes to the NAFTA, with the biggest being the change in name.

GCCO is one that I am interested in. I can’t trade it on IB platform.

I have not seen any recession where bank stocks didn’t see an substantial downturn anywhere at any time ever. Bank stocks tend to be high beta because their business is volatile. It may not be as volatile as it used to be, but it is still fairly volatile and leveraged. Then, there is the issue that banks need to increase their equity by 10% when they increase their balance sheet and earnings power by 10%, unlike many tech stocks or even industrials that can grow with less capital nowadays. This makes them inherently less valuable and implies lower OR’s. This is similar to insurance companies, which I think I way cheaper at this point and which heavily own.

$20M is chump change for manipulating the share price upwards by billions of dollars. Maybe now some of the shorts cans sue him. I have no clue. I agree the stock will move up significantly on Monday. I said it before TSLA has seven or nine lives...

You need cheap stocks for buybacks to work. The banks aren’t that cheap any more with a PE of ~11x. They arn‘t extremely expensive either. I think low double digit return going forward are the most I would expect. in a recession , Banks could quickly trade close to tangible book value again, so that would be the downside scenario.

TSLA stock is like a cat who’s got seven lives. You through it out the seven story window on a busy street and think it’s dead for sure, but it comes back with a few scrapes 5 min later. I think TSLA stock will be back above $300 in a few days, on the back of some great news announcement ... Spec is Spanish perhaps....I've always heard cats have nine lives, but colloquially have seven in many Spanish speaking regions, while Turkish and other Arabic legends claim six lives. Sorry, nothing to add about TSLA, except maybe they are on their eighth, sixth or fifth life depending on where you are from.... No, I am Made in Germany. Our cats have seven lives here too, not nine. I have lived in the US for quite a while, but these small cultural idiosyncrasies still trip me up like this: https://youtu.be/4dpLBM4rBPM

TSLA stock is like a cat who’s got seven lives. You through it out the seven story window on a busy street and think it’s dead for sure, but it comes back with a few scrapes 5 min later. I think TSLA stock will be back above $300 in a few days, on the back of some great news announcement ...

Margin calls often were often a blessing for CEO‘s when the ship starts to take on water.

I think the authors make a pretty compelling case that Europe is undervalued vis a vis the HS, with fundamentals almost as good, but the sentiment far worse. I have an easier time finding value stocks in Europe than in the US currently, that’s for sure.

I actually think that Tesla is better off without Elon being CEO. They could create the position of a visionary leader, but then again, I am guessing that everything would remain the same. I don’t think that firing Elon as a CEO will bring Tesla down.

Yes, a lot of high tech fakes from China are inside jobs. But who is to blame here, the Chinese government or the companies that have totally given up the control of their supply chain? The culture in China is well known and nothing new. For the most part, these companies have to blame themselves, imo. This wouldn’t happen, if the companies outsourcing would control their suppliers and supply chain and lock them down. I think the Europeans understand this better. There is the issue with reverse engineered products (cars, luxury good ubiquitous fake watches etc.) that the Chinese government could restrict, but these inside jobs are the western companies fault, imo.