Spekulatius

I would have to look into this a bit more and while I share some of Johns concern regarding the debt in the AG sector, in the EU (and elsewhere), the Farmers tendnto get bailed out or at least a collapse (from drought or other external) factors alleviate. I seriously doubt that Danish banks will suffer substantially, but I admit they I haven’t done enough research on it. I think Danske is well worth looking into, as well as Lloyd (LYG) once it is clear how the Brits will exit out of the EU.

This makes vet greatly undermines his credibility’s. Then there is Telecom Italia (which I own as well, but at lower prices than his entry I think) which is looking sickly and where his tactic seems ineffective.

Also how likely is it that Verizon wireless, who has been the price leader in wireless is actually committed to executing a plan that will cost them tenth of billions in Capex, obsoletes their broadband business and reduces their ARPU in their wireless business? Makes no sense and ergo isn’t likely to happen. If VZW can indeed change fifer seamless unlimited broadband for 300MB/sec without device restrictions they for sure won’t do that for $50/ month. right now they charge a customer about $80/ month for broadband and probably $70/month for wireless and you think they are stupid enough to offer a better service for 1/3 of the price. If that were true one needs to short everything , including the debt of all telecom and cable cos.

I grew up in an economically depressed area in Germany. There were no jobs locally, so you just have to move someplace else. Despite having virtually full employment and plenty of jobs, some people are nevertheless unemployed, because they just don’t want or can’t move out of the area. This is the case in many areas in the US, but traditionally the mobility in the US has been higher than in Europe and I believe Canada as well. When you think of it in terms of landmass, you can’t get a decent job in 95% if the US. Are you still in Germany? Would be very interesting to hear your thoughts on the current economic situation and how you see the Eur going forward. Thanks. I have lived in the US for 20 years, but the rest of my family lives there and I have contacts and visited a couple of time recently, so I know what is going on. The economy is doing great and there is virtually full employment, no problem whatsoever except insome pockets in East Germany perhaps. The biggest issue is immigration - there are about 1 Million refugeees in Germany, many with a checkered background, as far as one call tell. This is way higher than what most consider the “load bearing capacity” to integrate in the society. And it has really upset many people and Kanzlerin Merkel is (rightfully IMO) blamed for the debacle. Because the two major went into a frat coalition to keep in power many people feel that voting for either one accomplishes nothing, so now we have the right win populist party in the upswing (Afd) just like in other parts of Europe. I have no idea how this will work out but I do think we will see some. changes in the political landscape.

If it a recourse loan and an expensive RV or boat is just a tip of the affluent customer wealth, it should be ok. It's a consumer loan really and if you manage to sell consumer loans to affluent customers at good rates - what's not to like? Non recourse RV loans are obviously a train wreck but I don't know who on earth would do business in such loans. OZK management does not look that stupid. Anyway, what is their competitive advantage in RV loans? They found a dearth of capital in this segment? Just from what I see a lot of RV or boat owners aren’t affluent. Maybe OZK clients are ( I have no idea) but if you are affluent, you probably don’t borrow to buy this to begin with, or get a cheap loan from a credit union.

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I grew up in an economically depressed area in Germany. There were no jobs locally, so you just have to move someplace else. Despite having virtually full employment and plenty of jobs, some people are nevertheless unemployed, because they just don’t want or can’t move out of the area. This is the case in many areas in the US, but traditionally the mobility in the US has been higher than in Europe and I believe Canada as well. When you think of it in terms of landmass, you can’t get a decent job in 95% if the US.

It might, if it is reliable and the ping is good, Generally speaking, the ping on phones sucks and the speed vary a lot. In one spot you may be Ok, but you move a few meter and may have a very unsatisfactory connection. For the 5G to replace a good internet connection, the coverage and ping needs to be very good.

I own all four of these... do we know each other? ;) BLX in particular very interesting here. I am having high hopes for Cuervo.mx. It could be a strong LT compounder. very Little Tequila is consumed outside the US and Mexico, there are high hurdles, since the Algave plant only grows in a certain region in Mexico to be used for Tequila and the US and Mexico itself are still growth markets as well.

The marginal cost depends most likely on speed thresholds. I know that FIOS can deliver 1GIG in most of their areas and to do that costs them almost nothing compared delivering the basic rate of 100Mbit for example, but I think it would cost quite a bit to go beyond 1GIG, because that requires special hardware. FWIW, if Verizon really follows though with their 5G pricing and offers $50/ month for 1 GIg speed, they would need to reduce the cost for a lot of their current FIOS customers too, as they charge right now $50 for 100Mbit and $80 for 1GIG (where it is available).

I couldn't agree more i laugh when i hear people talk about somebody else's phone has a higher megapixel camera... as if people are printing them out ... people just share photos on FB and Instagram these days.... it's the dynamic range, richness of the colour, etc that makes a camera great. Apple hardware never had the best specs. Maybe the exception are the Apple iPhone processors, which are clearly the best. I am not an Apple fanboy, but I know and have compared iPads with Android tablets, and the iPads beet those Android tablets hands down. I also converted from Android to the iPhone 8+ last year and I am quite happy with the results. the Spple excosystem just worked with less issues and friction and overall thenuswr experience is better. It‘s hard to put really nail it to a few things, it’s just a bit better throughout. I also think that Spples hardware has a longer lifespan. I have used iPads for 4+ years, my wife is still on an iPhone 6 and it just works (she is due tomorrow an upgrade this year) and will hand her phone to my son. The premium paid for comparable Android hardware is probably 10-20% and given the total cost of ownership for a phone and the longevity (or better resale if you do that) , it’s probably close to zero.

How can anyone know what the margins for EV cars are going to look like? FWIW, Daimler also has a very good truck business.

I think they've closet full of skeletons and that's the real the reason behind Ma's retirement. The "deep-throat" guy is hyperbolic, but I've never seen any evidence that anyone really understands BABA's financials. So in that sense he's right. Clearly BABA contains lots of extremely valuable businesses, but it's the ultimate too hard situation IMO. My notes from reading the 20-f: P. 4 what are the $3.262B in impairments on investments? ( mostly Alibaba pictures ?) P.36 $13.7B senior notes and $4B 5 year loan fully drawn down, why? p.43 VIE structure, 3 layer of holding companies above the operating subs P. 45 WASU related party transaction P.137 $4.862B in investment and interest income, (counted as earnings ) F-40 why change 37.5% of Alipay profit for a 33% stake? (This diluted shareholders) The VIE structure goes very deep, I wish it was only 3 layers. Ma has some 41 connections to different companies based in the PRC. About 25 of which he owns a certain shareholder percentage, the rest he is on the board of. The response I got back from the BABA investor relations was that he was only a director at these 25 companies as well and not an investor. They told a flat out lie, I went to http://www.gsxt.gov.cn/index.html just to verify every company to make sure nothing changed. I've attached the excel file that was sent, if anyone was interested. Thanks for your detective work, I really didn’t go that far. I was interested in BABA for a long, but will pass. There simply is no way to rationally explain such a complex structure and the related party transactions which have been disclosed, that are positive for an investor.

I would only play arbitrage, when I didn’t mind owning and iKang isn’t a stock that I would want to own after a quick review. The balance sheet and the deteriorating income statement are not encouraging.

I think they've closet full of skeletons and that's the real the reason behind Ma's retirement. The "deep-throat" guy is hyperbolic, but I've never seen any evidence that anyone really understands BABA's financials. So in that sense he's right. Clearly BABA contains lots of extremely valuable businesses, but it's the ultimate too hard situation IMO. My notes from reading the 20-f: P. 4 what are the $3.262B in impairments on investments? ( mostly Alibaba pictures ?) P.36 $13.7B senior notes and $4B 5 year loan fully drawn down, why? p.43 VIE structure, 3 layer of holding companies above the operating subs P. 45 WASU related party transaction P.137 $4.862B in investment and interest income, (counted as earnings ) F-40 why change 37.5% of Alipay profit for a 33% stake? (This diluted shareholders)

The webcasts wouldn’t start for me, but I think something else must have been said there, and the answers weren’t very satisfactory, since the stock is down 2% today.

The price for trading is headed towards zero.An average investor us better off going to Fidelity. A day trader may be better if with IB because of lower margin and fast execution. Also keep in mind that UB pays better interest rates on cash balances, which becomes an advantage again now that Money market interest rates are rising again. This is somewhat negated by minimum acvoubt fees and/ or fees for data feeds. I keep my IB account for international stocks and the occasional OTC stock trade. Edit: Another advantage is that IB never quit on me, not in the ugliest days of 2008 or during flash crashes. During the same periods I could not log in other accounts like Fidelity or couldn’t trade. I made sone very nice trades during the flash crash, as I recall.

Thelads, Great post! HY with it’s record low spreads and probably lose covenants is probably the biggest bubble out there and the EM‘s are part of it. The EM debt seems particularly dangerous given how capital can move in and out of them. In fact EM‘s can easily become a roach motel. At some point, very interesting deals will be available.

It is, that’s why I think their marketing is great. Compared to the other phones the XR at $750 looks cheap now. I actually agree that The improvements look underwhelming.

You are correct. I ordered mine the first day it was possible and didn’t receive it until towards the end of November. This looks like a great line up, having had my X less than a year I will wait until next year then upgrade to the XI Max. It’s great marketing, IMO. Now with all these expensive models in their lineup, the $750 XR looks downright cheap.

I did something similar on a first date when I was a freshman in college. Made sense to me because as a college student I didn't have a lot of money. Never got to a second date. I blame it on the coupon and nothing else! It’s natural selection at work. if she can get past it, she is keeper!

My general feel is they the biggest near term risk is a decline in the Rubel. just from the numbers in the Ir sexontrion of their website, Sberbank looks fairly cheap - 35 Rubel earnings/share for a 173 Rubel stock. verily low efficiency ratio (~30%) and strong profit metrics. It’s a great bank, except they it’s located in Russia. The appropriate discount for the latter is something I have difficulty to wrap my head around. I feel that currency risk and volatility of exchange rate over long periods of time relative to USD is a proxy for country risk for EM and on they quanitiative meaure, Russia scores pretty bad. I think this is something I would buy when things go really nuts.

For banking, I like ITUB.

It’s cheap, but a significant discount does (and should) apply. That discount changes, given the perception of emerging Markets and Russia specifically. I personally would rather invest in countries like Brazil (which has come down significantantly too) rather than Russia, to play and emerging market rebound.

I bought a pizza on my first date with my future wife. I even used to coupon to bring the price down further. It’s was much less than $50 as well. Come to think about it, she did mention the use of a coupon a couple of time later on. So, I think using the coupon to bring down the price by $4 or thereabouts wasn’t a good idea.