Spekulatius

I think there is a chance that Elon gets canned as CEO , if the legal entanglement gets too deep. There is a lot of key man risk with Tesla. As I mentioned before, I think Elon may suffer from burnout syndrome. I have seen this before and one symptom is that folks that have it can‘t turn off any more.

This piece also would scare me if I were long in TDLA and much more so, if I were bond investor in issues from his companies. Of course that is nothing new.

Puts are fairly expensive $23 for the Dec 21 $300 put. Even if there is no deal, it’s not clear to me that those would be winners.

Yes, I believe the hope for a takeover is the main investment thesis here. High debt load and valuation is not exactly compelling st 12-13x EBITDA. Management is selling shares too.

Interesting, They are really ramping up real estate. looks like they acquire properties at a 6% cap rate, based on cost and revenue metrics. Home service business seem to suck, based on capital invested and operating losses. Asset management didn’t have a great quarter like Q1, but volatility is expected here.

Spek, can you please show how lbtya is more expensive(pro forma for asset sales) than chtr or cmcsa? Yes, that’s how I see it. CMCSA (albeit not totally comparable) is cheaper than LBTYA and CHTR’s valuation is about the same, yet CHTR has better organic growth and more importantly much lower Capex and higher FCF for the next few years probably. Europe has more competition from the telecom operators, which brings returns down, IMO. I can't speak for spek but cmcsa is trading at something like 8x EV EBITDA which is cheaper than the 10x for CHTR and LBTYA. The benefit of owning charter is that earnings are set to increase a lot as they integrate there acquisitions (and also pivot away from video).

I've also wondered about the working capital and I haven't seen a discussion of this on recent calls (I may be forgetting something). My assumption/positive spin is that they are stocking the channels in advance of growth (e.g. in whitespaces). KHC mentioned a securitization program that they terminated in their CC impacting working capital. That may be one factor on top of the cost inflation. I agree with others here, unless they can get the share price up, acquisitions are unlikely to be accreditivd, CPB family owner very unlikely will let go for a 10% premium either and they are loaded up with debt already, from their Snyder Vance acquisition, which looks like a mistake.

I don’t see a crisis in Asia either, but I could well see the trade issues affecting the sentiment and leading to outflows. Most countries are somewhat dependent on capital inflows and when it goes the other way, the currencies and stock market tend to suffer, Happens every couple of years (last in late 2015j and is really nothing special. It’s part of the EM cycle.

LNG is a fungible good, so if China buys from another source, it will drive up prices and the US LNG will flow somewhere else, The issue could be that some infrastructure needed or export (liquefaction , terminals ) does not get build if there are no LT contract ins palace that guarantee a profit for the operator.

Last quarter results were crappy. Again, lack of FCF, slow growth, more share buybacks. Hovering around 5x EBITDA debt, which is high, given the lack of FCF. Why invest in LBTYA when you can buy CHTR for a similar valuation and CMCSA even cheaper?

Looks like David Einhorn or someone who claims to be Einhorn is posting. I would be happy to see if he can explain why BHF is different than Delta Lloyd.

Air purification is a huge field with many large players. There is nothing specific about air purification related to IVF. I don’t think the consumables follow the razor/bode model either. the consumables are mostly HEPA filters and there are a bunch of well established players (MMM etc) and the sizes are standardized.

I don’t think we have ever seen a president surrounding himself with so many crooks and lowlifes ever- Manafort, Ross, Nunberg , Scaramucci, Pruitt etc. Feels like a banana republic to me. Surreal. Yea, except for Obama - Hillary, Rosenstien, Comey, Brennan, Clapper, Susan Rice, Reverend Wright, etc, etc..... Why exactly is Susan Rice for example a crook? Reverend Wright was quickly sacked and never part of the government or even campaign in any way. Not the nicest fellow in my book, I agree on that.

Why CAH and not the better managed MCK or ABC? Valuation is a bit less for CAH, but I think the better management at MCK or ABC more than compensates for the valuation difference.

Publity used to make a signifanct part of their revenues from fond issues ( roughly 1/3) and gains from building sales (1/3), the remainder coming from asset management fees. Due to their current financial situation, they are locked out from issuing new finds, but I don’t know why they can’t sell some of their managed buildings either. I think the latter point is the most concerning. Maybe the CEO ( Olek) wants to buy this up on the cheap? It’s at least a possibility. This company is not really transparent, even those who own stock and follow it for a long time scratch their heads. Goes into the too hard pile.

John, thanks I got that. It seems that the new products can’t offset the decline in Charms ( Pandora’s main / legacy. Product). This is good and bad because Pandora is known for charms and they have to compete with other companies with their newer products. Pandora looks abut like coach a few years ago- a brand with some equity that has to redo its product portfolio. Worked in COH’s case , but wasn’t an easy ride, but that is true for most turnarounds.

Net Margins are about 4% and have bounced around this level for years. Valuation is rich st 25x earnings. All their business lines (cars,batteries) have commodity type margins. This does not look like an obvious buy to me. At 10x earnings maybe.

I don’t quite get why Pandora’s sales are down, even though they are introducing much more new products. Are the declines in their legacy lines much more severe now, or are the new product introductions just not working?

Why would that matter?

Can AMZN give away user data for advertising? Would they not shoot them selves in the foot providing data to their competitors? Also, the revenue from advertising is already included in the income statement, wouldn’t it be double counting to just add the value at a multiple of revenues in a SOP analysis, without subracting said income from the other business lines?

Reduced my position in ENB and FB a bit. I added to FB after a disaster CC and now have reduced my position to what I had prior. ENB was an overweight holding that I reduced after the run up. I started buying into this to early. Still one of my largest holdings right now.

Darwin would be proud. Hehe, the spelling corrector got me.

I don't have a dog in this and I see what you are saying - at some point you are wrong because of opportunity costs, etc. But people were saying this for a the last few years about Valeant and a few other noteworthy examples (short-sellers has losses for a few years and were told that the market had proven them wrong) - people shorted it for multiple years while the stock in question did nothing but soar. But, with either a long or a short, if your reasoning and value are correct, then you will ultimately be correct but it can take more than two years for your investment to pay off. If you are a value investor, even on the short-side, you are not wrong simply because the market has moved further away from what you consider the intrinsic value of your investment. Shorting, however, it is harder to see it through, and the unlimited downside means that when you are wrong, but think you're right and ride it out for many years, the losses can be extreme - so from that perspective I see what you are saying. But it is possible that Chanos and Einhorn and other shorts will take a bath on a $420 buyout AND that their fundamental valuation reasoning about the company was correct - and the financial difficulty they foresee will happen in a private company context. In regards to the bold, this could occur, but that is irrelevant. As an investment manager, your job is to get it right, not to "be right". There is a big difference and it's not something I'm sure guys like Einhorn and Ackman understand. It’s a probability game. Sometimes you are right, but it doesn’t work out or facts change, sometimes you are wrong and you still can make money. right am bearish on TSLA based on its financials, bt I don’t think I would short this stock ever. Puts are a different matter, and I think it’s reasonable to buy some. If it doesn’t work out, you hopefully small bet will be worthless, if you Artenreichtum, you could make multiples of you bet.

Yep, same with ETF’s. There will be a lot of forced selling. I wonder how this would’ve financed . That much debt in a private company with limited access to capital? What about debt covenants on existing debt?

Not sure about trolling but trading in TSLA stock is halted now. Did Elon hit the bong or bottle early today?