Spekulatius

What long term principles exactly did you forget buying DISCK? I can easily see pot. value as many others here as well. I just think there is way more risks here than those that put money in it.

It's a bit like this century version of the James Bond "Goldfinger" plot, if you replace gold with bitcoin.

Just keep in mind that there are different styles and no approach fits all, in terms of risk tolerance. Getting started, I would avoid high concentration. I really come to like the Motley Fool approach , especially if you are inclined to growth investing. just keep in mind that with investing, things are almost guaranteed to get messy at some point:

I bet with this rate, it’s a secured loan/line of credit.

I found this link interesting. How to kill Bitcoin: https://joekelly100.medium.com/how-to-kill-bitcoin-part-1-is-bitcoin-unstoppable-code-7a1b366f65ee Some of things proposed seem a bit far fetched as they requires world wide coordination, but the idea to that a nation state could slow the mining to a crawl and then launch a 51%+ attack seems interesting.

Apparently, this is a MLM scheme where you can accumulate stocks for milestones including recruiting other brokers to EXPI. MLM scheme can grow quickly, but often they hit limits fast too. I have no idea which way this one goes.

Joel Greenblatt's books belong to the top of the stack for any budding investor, because they are an easy read and relatively short. "The little book that beats the market" and" Magic formula investing" are both highly recommended. Beyond books there are ton of online resources, you tube channels and podcasts. I like in particular "Focused compounding" and Motley Fool Industry Focus" podcasts. especially "Focused compounding" has a tremendous back catalogue on many topics for new investors. The MF podcasts are great to get a contemporary view on many growth business and the investing landscape. Keep in mind that investing is not a static science. What may have worked 10,20, 30 years ago may not work any more, or more likely needs to be applied differently. The basic principles however remain the same.

My biggest insight from all this is that QE <> money printing. QE at best creates an "unnatural" interest rate curve but it does not put money in anyone's pocket. Fiscal policy does print money and puts it directly into people's pocket (the stimulus checks are literally helicopter money), but seem to be easing up on QE at the same time. As far as monetary policy is concerned, we are living though a regime change.

If Netflix were trading at 14x EBITDA, I would buy the stock hand over fist. As it stands, Netflix trades at ~8x 2022 revenues and ~33x EBITDA.

It is the multiplier effect including asset value inflation at work. Many things are not bought from cash flow, they are bought via gains from asset inflation. If this reverses, the wealth effect and the Lambo’s (a classical douchebag / nouveau rich indicator ) will get scarcer too. 15 years ago was 2006 and we know what happened next. I don’t think we are close to some meltdown, but those are hard to predict and only obvious in hindsight.

Lower the rates by 50% or whatever the clearing rate is and see what happens. They need to reboot this starting from a lower basis.

XBI >> IBB because it captures the outliers much earlier. IBB is mostly a covert Pharma index. Even with all those lousy science cos that go nowhere, the XBI is the better vehicle.

Time for Bayer/ Monsanto to get in, and professionalize the business.

This is what a diversified portfolio of crypto looks like right now: 1) why are all crypto currencies so correlated? One would think that bad news for one crypto currency means it should create a tailwind for those that are “ sound “ but that’s not what is happening. 2) So Dogecoin, a crypto invented as a joke and with inflation build in is #4 by market cap and worth $38B. I guess Elon Musk is the answer?

That’s was not my intent. My question was does this matter for investing? With the financial pluming, it is probably just with home pluming, as long as everything works, it‘s all good, but when things are clogging up, it can get really messy very quickly. So far, I haven’t heard anybody expecting such a thing, except Raoul Pal who sees shadows of doom behind every corner and makes a living selling those stories.

I think COVID-19 has unlocked the pot. of the mRNA technology , but it is unclear to me how much of a barrier to entry there for other vaccine giants to catch-up over time. There have been development that make me believe that mRNA will be a big deal beyond just COVID-19 like an effective Malaria vaccine (which has been elusive with traditional technologies): https://massivesci.com/articles/malaria-mrna-vaccine-covid-biotech-patents/ If Malaria mRNA vaccines work out, it would be huge for Mankind and probably for the company that develops this and it would clearly show that mRNA COVID-19 is not a one off success. In the short run, I expect that COVID-19 vaccines will become an annually with annual booster shots, as COVID-19 is unlikely to ever go away. I don’t know what all this means for Moderna stock, but I think it is unlikely to be a one and done sort of thing.

@wabuffoIf this is true, how come that some insiders were able to unload shares during this time: http://www.openinsider.com/screener?s=DISCA&o=&pl=&ph=&ll=&lh=&fd=730&fdr=&td=0&tdr=&fdlyl=&fdlyh=&daysago=&xp=1&xs=1&vl=&vh=&ocl=&och=&sic1=-1&sicl=100&sich=9999&grp=0&nfl=&nfh=&nil=&nih=&nol=&noh=&v2l=&v2h=&oc2l=&oc2h=&sortcol=0&cnt=100&page=1 I agree, reading the merger docs, timelines and negotiations will be interesting. on my sh$itco accustom, I think the poker table analogy is very relevant here. TV/ cable used to be a clubby business, but now the real competition is Netflix, Google, the new Disney, Facebook which are all in the advertising and content business and play a different metagame. What used to be good business can become a lousy business if younger was more competition that sets the rules now. Bulking up size only helps so much when the rules of the game change. We will see how this goes. I am open to change my mind if I get a better view where this is heading. I think there is no rush to get involved, because this merger is going to be messy and there are a lot of sellers for this stock, the way the deal is structured.

The pine beetle is an issue in Europe too and impacts the supply situation. Those usually occur after dry summers when the stressed trees get vulnerable to beetles which unfortunately happens more and more due to climate change. One thing I do not quite understand is that we have been able to build north of 2M houses without lumber prices going through the rough in the early 2000 during the boom then. What has changed? One thing I do know is that capacity to existing mills can be added by debottlenecking and running more shifts. Building new mills takes a long time, but debottlencking to add capacity is much quicker and that’s what the mill my brother works with is doing in Europe.

LOL: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:5Z6siy-TQDUJ:https://defi100.org/+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

Passed.

XBI is interesting because you get tailwinds from the biotech innovations in a sector that is notoriously difficult for most investors to analyse . The XBI has been weak recently, so one gets a decent entry point, imo.

I read Outsiders too and I think most people have the wrong takeaway from this book, namely that capital allocation is the most important thing for a CEO. While I think it is extremely important, I think reads may be missing how good most of those CEO‘ in Outsiders were operationally. Singleton, for example was an exemplary operator and that’s what really enabled his capital allocations moves. If you look at great capital allocators today (example Transdigm), they are great operators and food industries. My take is that industry and operational Skills matter much more than their Capital allocation moves. Looking at Transdigm, Heico is similar in term of industry and operational prowess without any of the financial engineering and they do quite well. Even TDY ( Teledyne - Singleton‘s vehicle) has done great long after Singleton was gone, because they are great operators. My simple take is that operational prowess and industry matters much more that capital allocation and the same moves done without a solid foundation in terms of operations most likely lead to disaster rather than outsized returns. Another note - why didn’t DISCA raise some funds with a secondary like VIAC did early this year? Seems to me that if capital allocation is such a core competence, selling overvalued stock should be part of the equation. It was for Singleton and even these chumps at VIAC ran the cash register.

It is interesting, but it would be way more interesting if something gets distressed for a while and opportunities in debt securities came up, or even distressed equities. Currently, we are getting the velvet glove treatment from the Fed and just about everyone can raise debt without a problem. Risk premiums across the spectrum seem to be almost at record lows.

BBB rated debt is not really going to move much, even if risk free interest rates go up 1/2 %. The last interesting opportunity in debt was in March 2020 (for a few days only) and with the energy meltdown in late 2015 , when solid MLP and even industrials showed increased risk premiums. Currently, the opportunities in debt are pitiful, even with non-investment grade.

This is all interesting, but why should the average investor care about this? It might cause a small compression in bank NIM, but that’s about it. I don’t see any relevancy for myself and probably the vast majority of investors, much less the average Joe or Joanne.