Spekulatius

Circling back to this one because it is a interesting in a way. RKT stock is at a low since the IPO around $18. results have been song around $1/ share and quarter, but guidance for mortgages and specifically margins % for GoS were doen (from 4%+ at the peak to <3% next quarter ). It is clear they were over-earning and probably still are. Beyond thwt, there are some interesting things: 1) They apparently internalize more title insurance with their own insurer AmRock 2) They have a car marketplace that is still small but gaining traction 3) more sign ups for Rocket Pro (for real estate agents) which keeps them on top of the mortgage application process of their clients. it seems that they are striving to streamline the mortgage process by internalizing more and more of the business process which is good from a margin perspective (Title insurance is very profitable) and catering the experience to homebuyers homebuyers. I think over time that makes them secular winners. Initiating mortgage are a cyclical business but it’s a good business when done right. From my perspective (I have done more than half a dozen mortgages and refinances over the years) the banks have lost this market and Rocket and other mortgage brokers are runn8ng circles around them now. https://ir.rocketcompanies.com/news-and-events/press-releases/press-release-details/2021/Rocket-Companies-Announces-First-Quarter-Results/default.aspx I am also watching PFSI which has done well (until lately) and looks extremely cheap by many metrics (even more so than RKT). (No position, I ended up buying FAF since I started this thread).

^ LOL, I thought the valuation was a stretch for PLTR at ~$10 and I am certainly not buying it at $20, at least not with current fundamentals. I do think it is an interesting business and just since it is controversial it is probably destined to become cheap from time to time. Or perhaps it stays expensive forever, but then there is no penalty for no called strikes. PTON never interested me as a business, because the home gym equipment industry is fad driven. While I think the subscription component adds an interesting twist, it is ultimately likely a fad too, at least to some extend. I do think it is going to have a long tail. I am sort of hoping to buy a second hand Peloton bike cheaply one day for my home gym. I do think it is a good product and I liked to take cycling classes years ago, when I was with 24h Fitness but think this could be done better via the Peloton platform where I don’t have to be on a fixed schedule.

I don’t think PTON was ever a stock that was bought on value on the way up or on the way down, it always was more of a story stock. FWIW, the recall of the treadmill is probably not the economically relevant to the PTON story. It will lead to a one time writeoff, but probably won’t damage the customer reputation all that much. Which value manager actually has recently purchased PTON? I am not aware of any.

FWIW, the CC that LM was referring to can be found on tikr.com: https://app.tikr.com/stock/transcript?cid=42083601&tid=263579308&ts=2249661&e=710924151&refCode=o94y6y#

E-Commerce spending in China actually exceeds B&M spending now and sits at ~52%. Somit makes sense that Chinese consumer spent proportionally more of their income at BABA and other online vendors. In the US, , e-commerce is roughly 14% of total retail. https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3122234/china-set-be-first-country-where-e-commerce-sales-outstrip

Reduced GD a little. I feel it has reached fair value around $190/share.

I bought just a few shares in several accounts in early March when the price declined. For a brief moment, COST price seemed reasonable, considering the quality of the franchise. Over time I can se COST becoming even more of a monster retailers, if they get online right. We have been buying groceries and all kind of incidentals at COST for a long time, but recently I had several items outstanding that I would have typically bought at Home Depot ( washer drier, kitchen faucet) that surprisingly enough I found at much cheaper prices at Costco at their website. I bought them online and while not superfast like Amazon, they were beating HD on delivery speed and the install of the washer dryer went OK as well. That's now a whole new game where I my family at least starts to order large items online at Costco rather than just buying groceries. then I did a quick calculation and it occurred to me that paying paying $60 more for Executive and getting the Citi Costco credit card for larger rebates now is a no brainer financially and that's why i upgraded my membership and get the CC. if that's not a fly wheel, I don't know what is. Now going back to COST as a business, I could see them becoming a force online in addition to their warehouses expanding over time. In fact, if they get online right (upgrade the website, the scope of offerings, the delivery times), I think they really can give Amazon a run for the money. FWIW, I am prime customer as well, but for larger items, I really prefer a closed loop system like Costco. So if I have the choice to buy at Costco or Amazon for the same price, i would choose Costco without hesitation. if I just need some smaller item quick, I love the quick delivery that Amazon provides.

Costco Sales in April up 32.5%, 24.2% excluding gas prices. How is this possible? LOL https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/05/05/2223887/0/en/Costco-Wholesale-Corporation-Reports-April-Sales-Results.html#:~:text=ISSAQUAH%2C Wash.%2C May 05,from %2411.39 billion last year. The Spek family certainly did their part. We bought a washer dryer in March and I ordered an ipad pro (they had an $100 off coupon), in addition to all the ongoing stuff (groceries etc.) We also upgraded to executive membership.

NOC results were quite strong, due to new programs contributing ( GBSD, space, classified) so this is just a friendly reminder (thanks to @lhamtil from Twitter) that NOC has beaten the QQQ over the last 10 years as well as 20 years (NOC has underperformed the QQQ since 2018 though).

Tracking positions in QLYS and in recent medtech IPO NPCE (speculative).

Sounds like it's not the open end per say, but rather formfactor and belt that cause the issue: The spokesperson also told Consumer Reports that some of the design features unique to the Peloton Tread+—notably its height off the ground and its belt mechanism—may make the treadmill particularly dangerous, meaning there may be no safe way to use the product.

Well, at least they are recalling their badly designed treadmills finally: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/peloton-recalling-all-treadmills-after-reports-of-injuries-one-death.html

Also, how are folks that are closer to India than I am judging Modi? He seems to be incompetent at best and perhaps even malevolent. In addition to the stretched valuation metrics (see above), this looks like a lousy setup for a stock market - high valuations, declining profitability and lousy leadership ( which really matters in Emerging or 2nd world countries). India always has been the country that could but never actually got the job done. Why would this time be different?

I wonder who is right - the Leonard of 2015 or the Leonard of 2021: https://www.csisoftware.com/docs/default-source/investor-relations/presidents-letter/pl_2015.pdf Constellation now trades at 6.5x revenues. The hurdle rate problem is not unique to CSU either.

Transcript from tikr.com: https://app.tikr.com/stock/transcript?cid=255251&tid=2594156&ts=2266536&e=696911379&refCode=o94y6y#

^ Banks need to get rid of some deposits, they are literally drowning in them. This is the result of all the stimulus transfers from federal to private.

Diamond hands after a 20% Market decline:

Sold my RNR - disappointing business performance. Stock went up since I bought it, but I lost confidence.

BMY like other pharma buys R&D and then has to expense it via amortization ands writeoffs. They bought CELG which resulted in a huge amount of intangibles. MRK has the same issues to a lesser extent. The problem really is two fold - some R&D that is purchased never works out and is a total loss and those that do work out have a finite shelf live due to patent expiration. I think the economic truth is somewhere between the GAAP and the non GAAP numbers but i cant determine owners earnings with any real precision. I do think that big pharma is cheap, but all the above are a real issues. FWIW, I own a little BMY (from a while back when the stock really declined due to the merger with CELG) and MRK (purchased recently around current prices). i think both are cheap but not as cheap as non GAAP earnings suggest and Mr Market knows this.

I think BABA next earnings will be crushing it - consumer spending in China is even stronger than in the US and look at what FB and GOOGL did. I know that FB and GOOG are ads vs BABA is a marketplace, but I think those two are correlated, if the economy is booming, both are going to do very well.

You don’t need to smoke to get your dose of THC. The menthol ban wouldn’t be a big deal, raising taxes wouldn’t be that big of a deal either, but making cigs non- addictive - now you are messing with the unthinkable. I am not sure it will get to this point - smuggling would become an issue. It would certainly curb cigarette consumption as smokers would need to switch to alternative methods of delivery to get their nicotine fill.

@Castanza Holly Molly, what a project. We just do small stuff like painting, replacing faucets etc. but nothing like this. I agree on YouTube being an amazing resource. There is almost nothing that can done that can’t be found in YouTube.

KHOLY ( holding co) and AKBTY (bank) are two more Turkish stocks that are trading ADR's. ROE is a bit of a questionable metric and needs to be seen in context with the high inflation and the currency depreciation (both are related to each other).

I am holding all my shares so far, it is one of my larger positions, but I also am pretty diversified. The stock performance exceeded my expectations, but I don't think the shares are expensive at this point and I don't really have any other comparable bets to move to, except maybe PNGAY (chinese insurer) which i am still toying around with. I expect another special dividend at the end of this year, but perhaps not as high as the last one ($1/share). I am not too convinced that activist like Owl Creek are going to get much traction, although I do think if they would sell it off for parts (separate title from other insurance business), they could fetch $30/share pretty easily. The feedback I received here after posting was pretty helpful in strengthening my conviction and make resulted in making this position larger than I would have done otherwise.

The herd immunity apparently never really get's reached because immunity wanes and the emergence of new variants that partially render the natural immune system defense obsolete. That is probably why we are seeing a second wave in countries like Brazil and now India. I think we will see more and more the mRNA vaccines becoming the gold standard here because of high efficacy and the ability to ,more quickly fine tune them against variants. i fully expect to get a BionNtech booster shot tuned for protection against variants probably by winter 2021. Vulnerable countries beyond Brazil and India are China (low vaccination and mostly crappy vaccine), Japan (already in shutdown) and pretty much the rest of SE Asia (low vaccination). The US is probably close to peak vaccination rates and should be able to export vaccine pretty soon to help out.