Jurgis

https://smile.amazon.com/Untitled-Houghton-Mifflin-Harcourt/dp/0358250412/ref=sr_1_3?dchild=1&keywords=lights+out&qid=1597781954&sr=8-3 The book about GE "Lights Out" is free to read with Amazon Prime.

Next stop $2T! (Funding secured)

I don't know details about Spain, but IMO a bunch of Europe reopened too much with no checks. In particular, there is a lot of vacation travel, which was pushed by vacation destination countries for their economy, but which was IMO foolhardy. Plus there was quite a lot of de-mask-ization and social distancing reduction going on - maybe not in all countries, but in some. IMO even in Massachusetts people have relaxed the attitudes way too much. But hey, I'm probably the only person who still pretty much has not met my friends or traveled anywhere. ::)

Yes, you should have used "people are leaving" argument in the first place. IMO that's much better argument for your position - although "people are leaving" is also tinged with economic and opportunities-based emigration. But you made different argument. And that's how we ended up here. ::) Yes, they would choose America. And I would claim that large factor driving that preference is the relative wealth of America. Plus America's higher openness for immigration and immigrants. Which does not fully equate with civil liberties: there's a number of countries that have civil liberties on par with US and yet are much more closed to immigration. A number of European countries are like that.

If you're going to be cheeky, at least be correct. Over the last 20 years, China's net migration rate has decreased from -0.157 in year 2000 to -0.247 per 1000 in year 2019. Since 1950, China has never had a positive migration rate. For context, the net migration rate for U.S. in 2019 was 2.893 per 1000, also down over the same timeframe (but still decidedly positive). The rest I won't comment on at length as it is better suited for a soon-to-be-deceased sub forum. But I will stand by my original point: A free society and civil liberties are a competitive advantage. You just changed the subject. "nobody is clamoring at the gates of China" is very different claim from net immigration statistics. China has hugely restrictive immigration policy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_China : So if someone is clamoring at the gates of China, China won't let them in. The other parts of that same Wikipedia article cover the existing examples of "clamoring" including illegal immigration and overstayed visas: Edit: BTW, this does not mean that China is great country. It's just an attractive country for some. And IMO your world understanding would improve if you acknowledged that purely economic migration (that does not much care whether target country is free or liberal) exists. But yeah, this thread should be pretty much moved to "Politics".

You missed last 20+ years? There have been tons of people going to China for jobs/money/etc. Part of is the culture/history/mystique. But part of it has been opportunities. Not that it's trivial to get in and get job visa.

Got a text message and filled out https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey.html today. Just FYI, it looks legit and data may help to make informed decisions.

I think I posted on BRK thread about AAPL valuation. Considering trimming down again, so looking at it again. Starting with 80B FCF TTM, if AAPL manages to grow 10% annually for next 10 years, and assuming discount rate of 0.09% (9% annual return), 2T market cap is justified. M* expects 7% growth rate. Assuming that, the return drops to 6% or so. It's not hugely overvalued. But yeah, at this size growing 10% for 10 years might be tough unless they hit another jackpot huge market outside iPhone.

1$ trillion, 2$ trillion, pretty soon you're talking real money.

I'm #FreeFortnite and all that, but it's still TINA: there is no 3rd mobile platform and nobody's gonna build one (anytime soon). Well, maybe Amazon again on top of Fire tablets++. Maybe FB. But even these are unlikely. So unless antitrust is persuaded that Apple + Google == duopoly that should be forced to provide access on reasonable terms, nothing's gonna happen. Or in other words, Epic Games & others who try to rebel will be f%^ked. IMO you can rebel when consumers have an alternative and can leave for whatever alternative platform. If they can't, rebelling is really pretty much just antitrust play.

@ReadtheFootnotes: you've got a sweet thread going on here. Unfortunately, there are not that many attractive finger licking opportunities around nowadays. ::) Maybe I just don't know where to look. :-\

With cash adjusted: IAC market cap is ~10.5B Their holdings of ANGI is ~5.5B MGM holding ~1.2B Cash/etc ~2.9B Total: 9.6B Odds&ends: are valued at ~0.9B. OK, this is harder to value now. I'd still won't say that IAC is undervalued on SOTP, but possibly it's fairly valued.

OK. Thanks. You are right then. 10Q is weird then - where the heck they had the class M shares (or cash equivalents) on it... ::) Anyway, does not matter. Thanks for digging it up. I'll adjust above.

Though I would say filings should be more definitive. OK. ::) I don't see where they got extra $1B from, we'll have to see the fillings. Maybe they borrowed?

are valued at ~1.7B. I'd say that's high valuation. No, cash was at 2.9B pre MGM investment. Not after it.

So to update: IAC market cap is ~10.5B Their holdings of ANGI is ~5.5B MGM holding ~1.2B Cash/etc ~2B Total: 8.7B Odds&ends: are valued at ~1.7B. I'd say that's high valuation.

That's not true: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1800227/000180022720000012/iac-2020630x10q.htm

Maybe not 5B, but there is more: MGM: 12% of ~11B Vimeo: Revenue $67.3M (up 47%) Q2, 2020 Care.com: IAC paid $500 million for $200 million of revenue and $20 million of EBITDA Dotdash: $108.1M (up 60%) Q2, 2020 Search: Revenue $131.3M (down 32%) Q2, 2020 "Emerging and other": $108.1M (up 60%) Q2, 2020 Angi: Revenue $375.1M (up 9%) Q2, 2020 If I remember correctly the CEO has said that the stub perenially sells for zero USD... "stub perenially sells for zero USD" - maybe that was true before MTCH spinoff, but it's not true now. And yeah, I know about all these, but they are not 5B.

I don't understand why people think IAC is undervalued on SOTP. IAC market cap is ~10.5B Their holdings of ANGI is ~5.5B So what do they hold that is worth another 5B? ::)

I am pretty sure you can get this. I got 3 3/8% no points, very low fees (~400-500$) pre Covid in February for a 30 year conforming and I am fairly certain, I can get 3% now. Try Polymortgage.com. FWIW, the spreads for 30 year mortgages over the 10 year treasuries are still high historically. I think there is room for mortgage rates to fall, even if treasuries just stay where they are. I am hoping for 2.75% rates for a 30 year conforming with no /low out of pocket. That's the rate I got, but not sure if it'll still be available now that Fannie/Freddie have announced that they're adding the other 0.50%. Right. I may have missed the window.

Thanks for the meetup. Great talks.

FYI: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/usps-states-delayed-mail-in-ballots/2020/08/14/64bf3c3c-dcc7-11ea-8051-d5f887d73381_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_uspsstates-230pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans Though this should be moved into "Politics" section.

I shit on US? Oh no, brother, you have completely misunderstood. I am here in the hope that the glorious rays of wisdom of The Greatest President Trumph and his disciples could delighten us all. A single word of this genius and the country will stand still in amazement and awe as you surely do. How could I miss the opportunity to be present in such momentous times and places and hear from such devoted followers of the Most Beautiful Leader? All Hail El Presidente! I can understand why you didnt answer the question. I actually answered the question. But don't worry. I realize that you don't want to acknowledge a brother in public forum. We'll exchange the secret handshake and a kiss when we meet at the rally. Don't be a stranger. MAGA forever!

I shit on US? Oh no, brother, you have completely misunderstood. I am here in the hope that the glorious rays of wisdom of The Greatest President Trumph and his disciples could delighten us all. A single word of this genius and the country will stand still in amazement and awe as you surely do. How could I miss the opportunity to be present in such momentous times and places and hear from such devoted followers of the Most Beautiful Leader? All Hail El Presidente!

I would repeat my post above-thread from 2016. My 401(k) contribution allocation still remains 80% stocks/20% bonds. 80% stock allocation are 40% US indexes, 40% international indexes. 40% US is 20% SP500, 20% Mid cap index. Total market index is not available as a choice. I do not rebalance. Since my experiment with 401(k) began ~10 years ago, SP500 is clear leader. Mid cap is lagging behind. Bond fund is in 3rd place. International stocks are at the bottom. I would not have predicted this outcome.