Jurgis

Support Lithuanian entrepreneurs - buy hand-sewn masks on Etsy! #partlykidding #Lithuania 8)

Iknowrite. 8)

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst. LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago. Not. My cousin is not backing away from 900k house in SF Bay Area suburbs. It will be her primary residence. She is not worry about a downturn and said she will buy more as investments if she see "deals." I feel Bay Area housing pain. Last year I was going from SFO to Bay Area and I'm like "there's so much empty space everywhere, why nobody's building". But, yeah, I know, reasons. I did not go to work in Silly Valley for RE price reasons close to 20 years ago. Yeah, I know looks stupid now. Coulda bought a house below 500K in Palo Alto haha. A friend has $2-3M house in Los Altos. I'm telling him just sell and retire to some nice place and sip margaritas. Nah. It's OK, everyone makes their choices. 8)

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst. LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago. Not.

Skilled worked shouldn’t be a problem. The article quoted by LC seems to say that "Skilled worked shouldn’t be a problem" is a myth. But what about all those people fired from factories in Midwest? IDK. Maybe they are not skilled enough? Maybe they are in a wrong place (labor geographic mobility is way lower than needed).

In general, I agree (there are shades, but in general you are right). I'm afraid that with the attitude in this thread small businesses should not expect much (anything?) from investors either. Government help it is!

Let's come back to reality for a minute. Giant corporations are able to do stuff like this: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/bob-iger-forgo-disney-salary-top-execs-take-pay-cuts-1287418 https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/490079-columbia-sportswear-employees-to-receive-regular-pay-as-ceo You can cut one guy's salary and now are able to pay the salaries of hundreds, thousands of people. Small businesses do not have that luxury. Small businesses also don't have hundreds/thousands of employees. But also I don't understand what your point is in regards to the investing (whether that's "screwing" or not) into small vs big businesses. Can you explain?

Nobody has ever been opposed to infrastructure spending. It just never happens. Anybody can explain why? (I'm fine if it's in Politics section). I've heard bipartisan support to infra spending for hmmm 10+ years now? And nothing? Why?

So according to you someone who started restaurant should be treated differently from someone who started a software or medical device business? Wow. Just wow. So you are totally fine giving your money to large company that's in dire straits by buying a secondary or buying their bonds, but you won't do that for a small business because that's exploiting the owner? And you are totally fine that this small business will go under because you gave your money to the big corp instead? Thanks for the ethics lesson. I guess.

How are you getting to this conclusion? Presumably everyone is buying stocks and bonds at 30-50-80% discounts from Jan 2020 valuations. And (will be) participating in BK restructurings if/when companies fail. How's that different to loaning small business money at (way) higher interest rate or investing into it via down round? Or are you saying that people won't buy stocks/bonds at yuge discount because hey that's unethical and screws up the company?

There's some interesting ethics lessons going on in this thread... It's not OK to screw small companies. But it's OK to screw larger ones. Maybe someone can tell me at which size it becomes OK to screw a company so I don't make a mistake in the future? Bonus question: is "screwing" what Buffett did when he offered to buy his "friend's" business on the only day out of the 365 days when the guy was unhappy and wanted to sell his business? -------------------------------- I'd think angel funding for startups is gonna drop if not evaporate. Since a lot of startups rely on funding rounds to continue as ongoing concern, this is a potential death knell to them. But then investors are in a bind: - the valuation should likely be (way) lower than before the pandemic crisis - but we don't want to "screw" the startup owners with a (hugely) down round - but if we don't "screw" invest, then the startup is likely completely kaput... so maybe we should "screw them" invest? Triple-A positive ESG-compliant angel investors want to know... ::)

Skewed reporting is making judgement.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

For posterity if I ever change my sig: "Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi "Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo "Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx

Beneath this stone, a lump of clay, Lies Uncle Peter Dan'els, Who, early in the month of May, Took off his winter flannels. --------------------------------- She drank good ale, good punch and wine. And lived to the age of 99. --------------------------------- Stranger tread This ground with gravity. Dentist Brown Is filling his last cavity.

What Spek said about chocolates. Lindt FTW. Although I am trying to lower my sweets consumption - and I cannot eat high-cocoa chocolates. So I've been moving to some idiosyncratic choices with lower sugar content that nobody knows about. E.g. http://ruta.lt/en/products/chocolate

I don't. Next question.

I know what they'll say. It's what they always say: "Nobody could have predicted this." They will continue denying too with various modifications to resolve cognitive dissonance. I was thinking of posting a list of facts and responses but then I thought it's a waste of time. It goes something like this: "The number of cases grows exponentially" - "That's because there's more testing" / "There has been millions of cases already". "The number of deaths grows exponentially" - "Way fewer deaths than flu/cancer/heart disease" / "They will trail off soon" / "It won't happen in this country/state/city" And so on.

Emphasis mine. Yeah, humans are very weird beings. (Some would say "irrational", but them's fighting words 8) ).

Are you calling video games non-essential products? People may die from boredom without Animal Crossing and Doom. Why would anyone go to GameStop is beyond me though... ::)

I agree with rb that fear is a yuge motivator. If deaths climb, people will agree with almost anything. We already agree with workplaces, restaurants, clothing stores being closed. You might think Americans won't agree to martial law, enforced quarantine, etc., watch what happens if deaths explode. Now, OTOH, if deaths don't explode then other motivators trump (lol). So it depends. There is some number of deaths where people say "we don't care, we just not gonna lockdown". And there is a number of deaths where people are totally fine with lockdown of pretty much any severity.

Bahhhaaaahhhaa.. I was worried about my SovietChinese made computer, and my SovietChinese Shoes, and the SovietChinese companies that I invest in.. ;) baaaaa Fixed that for you. ;)

Putin has won. Soviet Union is back again.

If you assume zero SP500 earnings this year, 163 earnings 2021, 5% earnings growth for 9 years, 15 terminal PE in 10 years, and discount rate (return to investor) 10%, SP500 fair value would be ~2400. IMO these are not unreasonable assumptions, so expecting SP500 drop much below 2400 is not very probable. It could in a panic, but it would be quite a good buy there. Of course, you are welcome to change the assumptions above. If you want 15% return on SP500 with the rest of assumptions above, then fair value drops quite a bit to ~1680.

The Gates Foundation has been woking on infectious diseases around the world for more than a decade. Just read their annual reports. There are probably very few people with his combination of real world experience and knowledge of infectious diseases. He will be on a cnn tonite at 8 pm with Dr Fauci. Viking's sarcasm went "whoosh" for this crowd... ::)