Gregmal

At first I thought this was another muscleman thread. Just buy BRK and GOOG. Average in over time. If you really want ETFs or mutual funds, don’t be afraid of fees. People these days make way too much of an issue of paying for anything. But a good manager is worth every penny. Although it’s easy to see why, after a decade of easy returns, everyone thinks otherwise. Ironically, the number of people who have ACTUALLY realized/achieved easy money returns seems to be dwarfed by the number of people who are in the easy money, don’t pay for anything, buy the index fan club.

Having done the above in 2015 and early 2016 I would point out some things that occurred I created a basket of about 20 names, similar to the breakdown Cigarbutt described in regards to sector specifics. Dividend reinvestment saves you big time. BP and RDS particularly, I had pretty average entry points, but over time the dividends did make a difference You'll need to give yourself(from a risk management perspective) at least 4 shots at entry points before acquiring a full position(similar to the post above) Some will be zero's, most will perform within the same general range. You will likely have one or two major outperformers. I was lucky to get TPL at $114 for instance. Made up for stuff like Halcon The approach and your subsequent return will be much more reliant on your execution and discipline rather than your ability to pick specific companies. Make sure to trim on the way back up with a slightly less, but generally consistent frequency with which you were accumulating, at least until you recoup a reasonable chunk of your original investment. I was fortunate to largely exit the basket in mid 2018. I gave back a lot of the previous year rebound; overall the returns were probably worthwhile, but nothing spectacular. The key is to avoid becoming a victim of a bear market rally. Be vigilant as well with anything that is borderline investment grade.

I think I mentioned here before(if not it was somewhere else), but the amount of FANG+a few(as I call it) that showed up in the filings on dataroma this quarter was staggering. I continue to pare down high beta, risk equities.

I'll derail this a bit, but dont you worry that the self liquidating narrative is gone? Adding dozens of employees, acquiring assets, and now potentially converting to a C corp doesnt seem like self liquidating to me. The trustees do suck a big giant eggplant emoji, but otherwise, this was hardly broken and I cant help but be a little pissed at all the players involved here for trying to "fix" it.

+5

This story is above my abilities in terms of feeling where the wind is going but it continues to be quite entertaining. It must be tough to be a short seller looking for catalysts but this story may have several chapters as I understand that some people still have qualms about other allegations including the value of the underlying 'products'. FWIW, the FDA and other authorities have decided to look into some of the innovative stem cell related products. This process will evolve over some time and perhaps a few years and will, at least initially, be a positive as there will be an increased interest. The potential negative is that the fundamental value of the products may end up with a clearer definition in terms of efficacy. I thought Mr. Nocera did a good job reviewing the game dynamics of this story and the third link (with an attachment) may be interesting for those who have an interest in forensic accounting or who actually shorted the stock during the eventful period. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-19/short-seller-marc-cohodes-goes-too-far-in-mimedx-campaign https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-22/mimedx-has-changed-but-short-sellers-like-cohodes-can-t-see-it https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-chief-executive-officer-and-chief-operating-officer-publicly-traded Indeed. They say Cohodes went too far, and I agree with regard to the investment. You can see it today with his cheerleading even though, shorts have gotten blown up here(of which I presume he is still one). So obviously it is more emotional than financial, and given what Marc went through, I completely sympathize with him and kind of give him a pass for his behavior. The rest though, from both long and short side, I found to be disgusting. One of the things that unfortunately weighed on my decision to exit this early was in fact the vitriol and rhetoric here; something I was completely unaware of when posting the thread and something I only started seeing afterwards. With further due diligence, looking at other forums and platforms it became apparent to me that this was just a mess. Longs threatening shorts, shorts threatening longs...pieces of shit all around. Investing should be fun and like any other event in life, when its not, its time to move on. When people cant even have an opinion or investment thesis without being attacked, well, thats reprehensible to me and not something I wish to(publicly) be a part of. The writing was on the wall though. The SEC literally never puts companies out of business, so betting on zero was obviously a bad bet. As usual though, people tend to focus on the wrong things. A simple observation is that when EVERYONE is focusing on something, that something really doesnt matter anymore because its likely priced as efficiently as possible. Like when everyone(myself included) was railing on Apple's reliance on the iPhone, well, iPhone numbers didn't matter anymore because the price reflected that. Same was the case here with the restatement. Now, its a little murkier as you allude to. I think the event driven trade is over and now one needs to be an expert on something here to make money.

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/MiMedx+Group+%28MDXG%29+Confirms+%241.5M+Settlement+with+SEC/16182232.html L.O.L.... "The SEC says the company agreed to pay $1.5M to settle the case, without admitting or denying wrongdoing." But as usual, everyone missed the forest for the trees. Fraud = Zero, right?

Started a bit of CLXT

Hamilton Thorne

LOL, now after clearing $75, the "activist" finds it attractive. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3521904-starboard-value-takes-stake-cvs-dow-jones More evidence the "smart money" just aint so.... I've long believed that the only real "alpha" most of these smart money guys get is through exclusively negotiated deals and private offerings. When it comes to investing in public stuff, the records probably arent much better than that of most retail investors.

JEF. Attaining returns from this thing has been like extracting blood from a stone. As such, I'm happily taking my one week returns here and calling it a day.

Yea I continue to be amazed by, and to a certain extent still overestimate the degree to which certain investors, particularly value investors, regularly fail to appreciate a situation for what it is or more exactly, place WAYYYYY too much weight on certain quadrants of an investment equation. Typically it's balance sheet/income statement related. They evaluate things as if those items are 100% of the equation, when in reality they are just a piece of it. Perhaps this "trade" shows proof that some of the guys at Berkshire are starting to figure out the markets again.

Thats exactly the thing, what separated Tesla from the million EV failures that came before it, was the very simple fact that they were the first ones to make cars that were desirable and looked like normal cars, not vacuums or UFO's or lego constructs. This is something that looks like it was produced by one of their predecessors. No way someone driving an F-150 looks at this and does anything but laugh.

Well, just another example of Buffett arguably being a hypocrite(see the Munger BYD example) and worrying about things other than maximizing value for shareholders... I guess when you get to his age its all about legacy and how people perceive you.

Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though. Word of advice...this is a highly promoted stock at tier 4 brokerage houses and to date, the company has been very eager to use any sort of share price bump to raise capital. Note, that's what they all do, some just more regularly than others. Thanks for the color. I have no idea what a Tier 4 brokerage is, but I suspect that these are the dinky outfits that recommend and pump microcaps? Anyways, the way I see it CR P has maybe 2-3 quarter of cash left, which means that they probably raise in the next 3 month or 6 month at the very latest. Typically buying ahead of a secondary is not a winning proposition. Tier 4 example http://www.teribuhl.com/2019/03/19/honigs-broker-dealer-laidlaw-target-of-fbi-investigation/ Good warning on CRBP https://seekingalpha.com/article/4245168-corbus-ties-suspect-investors-history-failed-clinical-trials-lenabasum I have a bunch of accounts at a lot of different places either personally or for those I oversee. So occasionally the dirty wringer produces "sales leads" which I end up on. No joke I had a fellow maybe 4 years ago call me unsolicitedly and hard selling me some options strategy on....Corbus. At like $8. A few days later in went down like 50%. I have nothing to add as to whether what the actual company is doing will bear fruit. But having been almost exclusively involved in seeking out and doing deep dives and short only candidates earlier in my career, I can tell you that many times, just using guilty by association with some of these names, is all you need to do(outside of securing a borrow and timing the short entry :P)

Restarted a little HHC. Replacing a lot of my momo and hot potato stuff with good old boring right now.

I definitely agree with a lot of this perspective. I often laugh to myself at how hypocritical even myself can feel sometimes with various investments and angles because it is an art and something that is highly personal. Your framework for investing can be everything while also being nothing. It can be exact and also inexact. Something sometimes and nothing sometimes. It really does vary situation to situation. Just because something is the same as something that has worked before, doesnt mean that this time it won't be different, and vice versa.

So, the inventory as Cigarbutt said, has some to do with the acquisition(todays call reminded me of just how fun reconciling everything can get with roll ups!). I would also imagine its somewhat seasonal as previously Ive been told Q3-4 skew stronger than 1-2...not 100% sure why, but thats just how its been. As for the call, overall I agree it was a very encouraging quarter and a bright outlook. I'd just add that Brexit did have an impact(positive) on the Q that will likely trickle into Q4 with October being stronger than normal and Nov/Dec somewhat weaker in terms of UK related biz. Planer had a very strong stretch and is pretty much said to be integrated, although again, Brexit may have helped as far as the #'s go, which came in way above what was initially anticipated. Lykos sales were robust and not said the be just a one off burst. Im a tad skeptical of that, but will be happy to remain surprised. Margins roundaboutly seemed to be hinted as boosted on a one off basis. They've always said you've have fluctuation and that some acquisitions and third party sales would skew them lower. So thats fine. Future acquisitions were mentioned and they remain ready to act. Not looking to get into back end stuff on the genetics testing side. Mentioned Illumina again which across the board from all the companies in and around this space I follow, seems to be a recurring thing, if nothing else, just highlighting how dominant Illumina is.

Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though. Word of advice...this is a highly promoted stock at tier 4 brokerage houses and to date, the company has been very eager to use any sort of share price bump to raise capital. Note, that's what they all do, some just more regularly than others.

Cigarbutt; noticed as well, however this translates to what? A mil and change(CDN at that) over the allotted vesting period? Not outrageous IMO. Although I am still transitioning in my development as an investor, from value only, so any time I see shares being given out it makes me wince. Artha, I have only had the chance to read the release so Ill circle back here when Im able to sit down and look at subsequent and more detailed release with regard to updated financials. I'll hopefully be back in time to tune in for the call later so will pass along anything from there as well.

http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/11/21/1950758/0/en/Hamilton-Thorne-Reports-Record-Revenue-and-Adjusted-EBITDA-for-the-Quarter-and-Nine-Months-Ended-September-30-2019.html I love earnings releases that consistently lead with "record". Organic growth pushing 20%.

I had some people look into this, kind of on that basis because the trade you described made sense to me on a certain level, and apparently there may be some liability issues with regard to the charging issues on their Algovita implants. There were also apparently pending issues involving their devices breaking apart inside the patient's body. Much of this was said to be known before Drees and Co went on their sales binge. So you've got several big layers of liability potentially tucked into this.

Sold some FOX, just in case we get another round trip to $30. Ill be there for that. FOX is on the watch list for sure.

The Fidelity issue was solely referenced in relation to transferring in LAACZ shares. They will not accept it I was told. Your ACAT will get NIGO'd and bounce. You can trade it freely once there, AFTER signing the form you mentioned. They also told me this is something they will now classify as an "alternative investment". For those of you with finance backgrounds, that is a very dirty area and means a lot of paperwork/documentation/CYA for the firm typically; which always seems to pass its way on to the customer. My assumption is that they won't let you transfer it in, but will let you trade it there, because its easier for compliance to document. The new SEC rule is just icing on the cake for this kinda stuff. And it's a shame. I have no real issue with LAACZ as an investment, but the landscape is becoming ridiculous, and especially when managing OPM it's getting near impossible. One of the realities of managing money whether your own or others, is that sometimes you change brokers or use multiple ones. Regulatory requirements for firms with regard to OTC positions has gotten quite insane. Now imagine transferring around and then trying to sell and being asked to provide proof of open market acquisition from something you bought 5+ years ago? And then being told if you cant provide it you cant sell? And then your other brokers won't accept an ACAT with an OTC security? Now imagine this scenario but with someone else's money? Having to ask an investor to come up with that and then deal with it as an advisor? Just too much hassle to justify dealing with...

Moderate adds to TPL, started DD today and just put another single family home under contract