Gregmal

Been selling/trimming BX, CRSP, EDIT, LAACZ, NVTA, VITR.SE

I have/had a small tracking position in this until today. Finally got tired of the tax reporting and a few other issues which are besides the point. Was looking to sell and apparently there were FINRA rule changes regarding certain OTC positions, I was told these occurred back in May, which require the firm to jump through hoops when transacting in certain securities. Which of course just means the unit holder has to jump through hoops. I was further surprised to find out that Fidelity WILL NOT accept this security via an account transfer. I ended up having to chase down my paper confirmation statements from years ago... and finally after significant inconvenience, was able to sell this. Just a word of caution. Not sure it will apply to everyone and not sure you'll have any issues if you can prove(onus on YOU) that the securities where bought and sold with the same firm. But buyer beware.

If I was really crazy about due diligence with this company I would probably do what I could to check out their credit customers. Industry wide practice, at least last time I looked was to utilize the easy money pitch, and basically convince people that if you gave them 5 years of no interest that this somehow makes it ok to buy something they cant afford. I dont think Ive ever heard anyone get turned down either. Ill be the first to admit I am hardly a retail guru, but this type of stuff should be called Gatsby merchandise. I dont know enough for this to be anything more than anecdotal, but old money rich people from what Ive seen, kind of look at this stuff as tacky and a glaring designation of "new money". Those people shop at Roche Bobois and places like Greenbaum Interiors. So if the demographic is not old money folks, and obviously not poor/middle class, that can possibly work just not on a large scale and not through the economic cycle. And when you juice that market, again, which is basically new money hipsters and hipster wannabes by introducing credit, you've got a bit of a Molotov cocktail. That said, Ive only ever made money here on the long side. Gary Friedman is a genius and fucking up short sellers is probably higher up on his to do list than anything else. Dont mess with Gary. I wouldn't be shocked, although maybe Im overestimating Berkshire's savviness, but their play owning RH could be simple. Maybe they'd found info they felt showed positive trends into the years end, and realized RH+BRK exposure+massive short interest on low float = good trade setup for a ride to $250-$300.

https://ir.ayrstrategies.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/25/ayr-strategies-reports-record-third-quarter-2019-financial A few bumps due to the regulatory stuff which is obviously out of their control, but otherwise they are still significantly ahead of where they need to be to justify $12 per share.

I agree with this. It's funny because over the weekend I was doing a lot of work on thematic replacement for some of my BX and to a lesser extent BAM position due to the euphoric runs both have had this year. My goal was to find something that fit the mold with what one was buying with regard to BX/BAM maybe a year or two ago... I kind of settled on LUK/JEF. Then there was this morning's announcement and I was like "fuck..." but for some reason the market didn't really react, so now I'm happy. Basically JEF on 11/15 = JEF +2% on 11/18 despite what is IMO a major event on many levels. This should have some legs for the next few months IMO.

Furniture like this is really just for "me too" folks who need to flaunt their material things in order to feel important. Except, with furniture, once its out of the store and the tags are off, no one knows what brand it is, and no one, outside of the owner, cares either. Normal people dont spend $8k on a sofa when the same one give or take can be had at Ashley Furniture for $1500. Add in that a good chunk of their customers are the hand to mouth type living on the ledge of insolvency but making "tons of money" right now... This is ultimately an ultra consumer discretionary name, not the Apple of furniture or whatever. But I get that it is now and must own and must talk about stock because it showed up in the Berkshire portfolio. Ive followed this thing for years, and the money is made(easily I might add) trading the momentum and short squeezes.

Sold down some BX and BAM

Bought a little JEF at the open

Now all we need is another "what do you think of the politics section" thread...

Most of the contributors have their own micro website/ communities, which cost extra. SA gets a cut from them. I am not saying that it doesn’t make sense to pay $20/ month, but I don’t think it’s a great value given that the quality of the freeware commentators is far below what you can find on other message board, including here. Yeah. Totally agree. VIC is way better in terms of quality. Also articles here, though it is harder to find articles here than in VIC for a lot of names that I am tracking. And if VIC is free, I am not gonna pay for seekingAlpha's lower quality articles. Which is fine and all if your actions are consistent with that. But what you're saying is contrary, that there is something you find on Seeking Alpha that you otherwise don’t seem to be able to find elsewhere(otherwise, why would you need to do this?). And your solution is to try to find a way to take something you seem to think has value, without paying for it. There’s a word for that... I would kind of get it if we were talking about thousands of dollars here, but it’s like $20 a month lol....

Well, I'm not trying to sound like a dick, but if we find resources like Seeking Alpha useful, why not just pay the nominal amount of money for it? You guys do realize these places cost money to run, and some of the contributors write and research for a living/side job. Why not pay for something you 1) use, and 2) find useful?

This is probably the majority of the equation. The other element is obviously a hot market. Without either, you simply can NOT make any money flipping homes. Everything is so expensive, the only way you ever get anywhere is having super cheap and super reliable ways to get the labor done. Either yourself, or a great connection. Otherwise, quarterly property taxes, mortgage and financing cost, and then the 6% realtor fee...yea good luck. You basically need to be generating 30% return in under a year for it to be worthwhile. Those dont grow on trees and the random tree that does pop up gets pruned quickly. Most of my research has lead me to believe flipping homes is only profitable for the people selling the seminars that teach you how to do it.

John, All I'd point out, and then continue bitching about, is the following. BX/BAM are probably my two best guess candidates for being the next BRK. However, they both come with their own issues, obviously. We can get into the details, such as compensation and share structure, but we dont need to. I presume that all financial/real estate folks(aka WS people) are inherently selfish pieces of shit who only care about their money and their main purpose is to extract as much as they possibly can for themselves. I am OK with that. That is not irrespective of their abilities to make money. Even America's Grandfather Mr. Buffett, used other peoples money to get himself going and then found excuses to kick them all out once he didn't need them anymore. But riding coattails of great people or great businesses can be highly profitable. Here, and now, I just find there to be greater reason to exercise caution and frankly, am a little disturbed by how naive some people can be. The honest answers of "I just trust them" are few and far between. But those are the honest answers and where I fit in. I just think trusting them at a fraction of fair value($30's/$40's) is superior to trusting them fully valued. Maybe a year ago I remember the guys at BX giving a presentation and talking about how "if only the market valued us properly we'd by trading at $55"....well......BAM is in a similar spot. So willingness to trust can be tied to my perceived risk/reward skew. These things are nowhere near cheap anymore. And quite honestly, if you've been through market cycles or read books on market psychology and behavioral aspects of the markets, how in the world does some of this behavior not scream TOP!!! to you? You've got people openly lying to themselves about their understandings of these things. Or making claims about "oh gee, they've never publicly booked a loss" or "the bears...the shorts".. all amateur hour stuff that seems to rampantly display characteristics of the cycle end being near. Do I think the end is death for BAM/BX? No. But I'm not interested in holding companies with big question marks and hoping for "market perform" +/- a few percent. To a degree maybe I am lying to myself too continuing to hold these things; as my basis for doing so is that they are absolutely great companies at "reasonable" prices NOW. But geez, it's crazy to me how after a massive short term swing in valuation and sentiment, people are now blatantly ignoring MORE risks than ever, at substantially HIGHER valuations, and just seemingly content high fiving and ass slapping in the echo chamber. Normax raised a really valuable question/piece of analysis... and everyone ignores it to continue dancing in the daisy fields.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dupont-movie-very-damaging-analyst-190338922.html Well, just as pretty much everything IMO(on a non trading basis, and with the exception of like 2 names) has suddenly become "short term expensive", a holiday gift comes along! I suppose I may look to begin accumulating a DD position starting 11/21!

As I said, Im not long this, but I can very easily come up with an elevator long pitch on Zillow focusing on FB and Google like ability to monopolize a specific high volume segment of the internet and then, at the very least, integrate an advertising platform. Off that, you have the obvious realtor transaction biz, and in addition to this, you could, at least very loosely in theory, make the case that they could also raise money from the public markets in order to acquire opportunistic pockets(recognized by their AI) of residential real estate and then run(or outsource) a property management/rental biz.... I believe Warren Buffet said not too long after the GFC that he would be an extremely active investor in single family homes if he could snap up 250,000 at a clip... if the process becomes automated, or moves that way, Zillow will benefit, and can likely move towards achieving what Buffett said he couldn't. Again this is all just loose elevator pitch and in some ways takes the current business and branches off in ways I would go if I ran the company, but acting like "gee it loses money and I cant see how it ever justifies the multiple.." is shown to be a money losing approach.

The consensus seems to be......"trust me, it was a great quarter" and "trust me, everything is great"..... in the echo chamber.

I remember a ways back, Zillow was pitched as a long, very simply as owning some very valuable internet real estate. Now it seems they're expanding into real world real estate as well. I think they have something potentially valuable and disruptive on many levels. Of course, this is subjective interpretation. At the same time, its important to remember that all the high level, sophisticated, analysis driven short sellers have been wrong for some time as well. Sure, they fault low rates, bubbles, and all the usual suspects, but maybe theyre just wrong. You dont get multi baggers from things that are easy to understand and consensus with everyone. The TAM for Zillow is huge, and then tangentially related opportunities are even greater. If all they need to bridge that, is temporary funding while they burn cash, well, they market has demonstrated its willing to provide that without crushing the equity... That said I have no position in Zillow.

It really depends. With some of the crazy high borrow cost names Ive found going 30% or so OTM and a year plus out does the trick. If you get a reasonable move down it takes care of itself. Otherwise you are still predominantly holding the time value. Whereas short dated and at the money you need to be so pinpoint with your timing its a little too much of a risk for me. Ive seen shit like BYND where you have something more or less at the money pricing in a 10% weekly move which is just insanely difficult to make money on.

sold the RH I bought yesterday after hours for a few bucks

This is an excellent point. Along these lines I found that if you take it a step further and force yourself to buy a nominal number of shares in one of those companies(preferably a market leader), you force yourself to follow it a little bit, read the transcripts and filings, and come to understand what you should appreciate in that area.

I dont disagree. FWIW I sold my puts on the run down and have this on the radar for a re entry either with puts or an outright short. The product is 100% a fad...its a Nordic Track with an iPad with Youtube for $40 a month... Ive been a member at some super duper high end and expensive gyms, and at times tried all the new buzz worthy fitness stuff. The truth is, for 90% of the population(the 90% of the top 10% that can actually afford this shit), this stuff is fun and captivating in the beginning and then you just get tired of it. The bull case for NordicTrack, I mean Pelaton, is not that they'll sell a million machines, its the recurring revenue and subscriptions. To me, the on demand stuff is neat, and Im still trying to tally the meaningfulness of that. But at $40 a month or whatever? When people arguably won't pay $40 a month anymore for a full TV package... or they can get a full gym membership for $30 a month? Or even get fitness videos for free on Youtube and the like? So yea, its kind of a no brainer, but it'll come down to timing so if you're going to put the trade on you either need to buy puts, or give yourself a very cut and clear catalyst but also a running start into it because once everyone else notices the catalyst the opportunity goes away. I typically like revisiting these a couple months ahead of the lockup expiration. Its important to remember, this isn't a SV tech company. Where all the employees are snobby dickbags and dont value money, ie, they'll hold their stock until they become billionaires because worst case they just move to the next venure and try again in a year...Its Beyond Meat or Tilray... normal people working at a company that just found themselves sitting on a restricted amount of life changing money, made in a short period of time, and they likely cant pass that up. The VC folks know this as well, which is typically why you see these get obliterated in the 2-3 month period sandwiching the lockup expiration, so typically 2 months out is an ideal time to start laying the ground work for your position.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/14/amazon-cites-bias-in-microsoft-military-cloud-contract-win.html "Unmistakable Bias"...LOL who the fuck is this guy kidding? Talking about bias? At best, pot meet kettle? LOL again. Not to mention, theres nothing illegal about a buyer having preference.

Bought a few shares of RH after hours looking for a quick buck. All I can say is, wow... really Berkshire? LOL

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17699031-dillard-s-inc-reports-third-quarter-results Shares could have some giddy up to them today.

There should be a middle ground between gotta have it now and wait 2 years for a new season. Sure theres people with nothing to do, and gotta have it now means they blow through House of Cards new season in one day. Then theyre stuck waiting years for the next one and probably forget what ever happened the previous season by the time the new one rolls around. Get on a schedule were you are releasing new content every 6-12 months(in terms of shows), while also dragging along viewers by forcing them to be disciplined. I know I kept Showtime for an extra few months because of a couple series they had going that only did one episode a week. Same with HBO recently, until Righteous Gemstones and Succession finished up. If those shows come back in 6 months, vs 12-18, I probably dont cancel and if I do, the in between lag time is less. IE company has me as a monthly paying sub for longer. People will literally just watch and then cancel unless something new comes along. Thats why live sports and news is going to be crucial. Its silly, and part of the reason I am short NFLX, to assume people will just put up with same old, same old, forever, WHILE being OK with price hikes. I mean the whole basis of the streaming revolution is because people are friggin cheap and dont want to pay $70 a month for shit they dont find interesting.