Gregmal

They're only releasing episodes from their original programs weekly. The first episode of the Mandolorian was done extremely well. No expense was spared in the special effects of the show and the ending of the episode had a very nice cliffhanger. The second episode is coming out on friday. At the conclusion of the series either a new Star Wars or Marvel original series will begin. A lot of the Marvel, Star Wars, and Pixar movies/shows are being released in 4K and Dolby Atmos. Hopefully someone figures out that the binge watch model ultimately sucks for the consumer. At least I feel it does, when it comes to ongoing series. Its bad enough with shit like HBO where you wait 18-36 months for a new season. But with Netflix, you legit watch the entire season in a couple days and then are often waiting even further. At the least, killing that, and doing the one episode per week would be great. Or taking it a step further and not releasing the first 12 episodes until 18 or so are finished. This way, you can finish up season 2 while one is running, and then shoot season 3 in the lead up to season 2. That would significantly knock the lag time down and keep viewers plugged in. Yea, yea, I know its added cost...but with certain shows, there isn't exactly uncertainty regarding whether or not it will get renewed.

I dont believe DIS has put anything out there. But for all the reasons you describe above, you know that its a near certainty that in the beginning, the numbers will be huge. So, if you front run that, and then just let the news flow and excitement work its way into the market, things typically skew your way. Or at least that's what Ive found is the easiest way to get 10% monthly returns out of mega cap stocks...let others focus on the granular bullshit. By the time they figure it out, the markets will already be re-priced and from there they can figure out if its worth hanging around for 7% annual appreciation. Again, full disclosure, Ive cut about half my position into this rally, but wouldn't be shocked to see the 52 week tested again. This also gets quite interesting from a value perspective if you look at things through the lens of NFLX's valuation(assuming one thinks its valid, which I dont)...

selling some DIS EDIT: closed rest of DIS at $149. Will leave all the mumbo jumbo bs and 2023 projections to others to figure out....happy with $131 to here in 3 weeks.

Haha yea. Im not a TV guy at all, so I dont get it. But the news flow I find is somewhat predictable. Im lightening up into this...

10M subs already! People often quote various market jingles like "short term market is a voting machine and long term its a weighing machine"...well, right now it's voting and then momentum is all that matters. EZ

At quick glance I would assume that is the face amount of the issue relating to whatever defaults were triggered. The company may have multiple lines of credit, and may also have enough cash on hand to cover most of them + some operating expenses. I would guess they are putting a hold on things until the strategic review process concludes. Not that it is something I'm doing, but this could be worth a speculative stab on the basis that net debt isn't huge and the assets do have some uniqueness to them.

This one was definitely fun...good exercise in active management and having to stay on your toes...

Parked some money here about a month ago. Just an easy place to be that should have some wind at its back for a couple months as this rolls out...Dont need to be a genius to see that.

Sounds like the big banks

Trimmed a little more CRSP, and MSGN

Well, theyre not traditional value investors, so I'd gander many here would say that their returns dont count or something...

Modestly increased my position in the World's Most Famous Arena @266

Haha, didn't even notice. Wish I bought Aircastle.

I also would like to clarify, that I am not in the "bear" camp at all here. I just sometimes like to focus on the stuff that others dont, or perhaps find taking things to an extreme and saying "if I had 100% of my net worth in this investment, what issues would keep me up at night?". I am actually quite bullish on this complex, although my exposure is not very meaningful, I have just simply been invested in BX for a long time, and then after watching the big runs in these names, couldn't bring myself to buy at the new prices. But its definitely on the watchlist and a pullback buy for sure. So there is that. I wouldn't ask "when is the last time they didn't monetize for x% gain"... thats an easy game to play and win from a management perspective. Sears didn't show a property sale that wasn't supporting a $150 share price for quite a while...it didn't mean anything. A lot of companies sit on their losers the same way investors do. I mean look at BRK's KHC investment and its accounting for instance. If BAM had one of these, it would be much harder to find. The bigger point of mine, is just to highlight that you have to be comfortable "not knowing" certain things here. You have to trust management a good amount. And you have to realize that if LTCM can wipe out, so can anyone; regardless of how "unlikely". For that reason, I would have significant difficulty giving this big time size, same goes for BX. Whereas something like BRK is very transparent, just frustrating in other ways. BAM isn't frustrating at all, just transparent as mud. A lot of really smart investors have a hard time admitting to themselves, and especially to others "I dont know". I think its important people acknowledge "I dont know", and account for that. Rather than make up the "know" and then tread forward with false security. And yes, after a few misunderstandings or exhibits of "lost in translation"... I think John gets my style. Its hard sometimes to extract real responses on some of the more difficult issues at times, so I often turn to more unorthodox methods which may "trigger" a response from people that helps bring out the substance....sometimes it doesnt. I just like to get to the nitty gritty, because its way more useful to me as an investor than just gushing about OMG BAM guys are geniuses, or BRK prints money, or whatever. Those things take care of themselves. But they arent issues that keep me up at night. Anyone being honest with themselves, can find issues or areas of unease, with anything they own, even their biggest positions. Nobody agrees on everything. That doesnt mean you shouldn't seek to explore it anyway.

Looks like it paid off well for you. Nice call! Hardly out of the woods yet, but hoping to get there soon. If you don't mind, what is the plan for situations like these? Is there a % or price in mind, or something else? I always wonder about these - would you say it's special/unique - situations. Even with a or multiple pop(s), but what is suppose to be the exit? Its never really "this" or "that" exactly, if that makes sense. I'll try to explain further the thought process. I really love looking for investments that some may call orphaned, or otherwise just check a lot of boxes in terms of things that put people off for no good reason. So with something like AYR, you have that in spades. Its been covered much more in detail on the AYR thread, but summarizing, you first had the marijuana bubble craze and this was all retail fueled. All institutional or sophisticated investors basically wrote it off then. The bubble popped, and all of the retails folks then took a bath as well. Somewhere in between AYR came along as a SPAC convert. Again, refer to the AYR thread if you wish, but it just made sense for me. The adding into the investment of, which I did plenty of, was a little nuts given the volatility, but I was fortunately to kind of catch the falling knife in bulk closer to the $10 number rather than the mid teens where I took the first tracking position. It's now about a 4-5% position for me, which is a reasonable one. One the technical side, yea theres been a couple days where you've had several $ swings in the share price for no real reason. I typically have a rule of thumb that if anything I buy goes +15-20% or more the same day, just sell it, take the extraordinary gains, and re-evaluate tomorrow, basically in the same exact spot as you were prior, minus your fat one day gain. I don't really have a set price target per say. I think a floor price target would be high teens or so. 7.5x $110M estimated 2020 EBITDA for a growth company like this isn't unreasonable. However on the other hand, I am also inclined to just let things play out and see if they can hit numbers and see where this goes. This is definitely a sector/special situation where you are capable of getting the retail rush back and going whacky; in which case, again AYR, is kind of positioned to be a premier marijuana play vs poo poo like Cronos and Tilray.

Well thats certainly great you find it ridiculous. I do too when even the most sophisticated investors look at a company's accounting and just kind of realize they have to accept what they are given by management and have zero ability to reconcile anything themselves. I dont necessarily find this an impediment to investing in a company, but do occasionally find it odd how others can be quite inconsistent with this sort of thing. Theres a lot of examples of risks with BAM, and a lot of instances where shareholders just chose to ignore them or take them in the most naive of contexts. I like this company and what its doing, but lets not be naive. This is a "trust me" stock. There is absolutely the potential for things to go wrong with the amount of debt/leveraged used as well. And these guys certainly have a track record of putting themselves and their interests before that of the minority shareholder. Just because you own the same ticker as them, doesnt mean they still cant screw you.

I dont have much to add on the accounting but the general observation with both BRK and ESPECIALLY BAM...that these are two companies whose shareholders demand ZERO accountability from management and 100% seem entirely fine relying on "trust me". So far, they've done admirably well, but this sort of shit wouldn't fly with other companies and their shareholders. To each their own. I mean people lose their shit with Burford(just an example) supposedly generating 30%+ uncorrelated returns because its not transparent, whereas I get the feeling most BAM shareholders would let Bruce Flatt and crew hang out alone naked with their wives as long as they said "dont worry"...

Well there is also the fact that this was introduced as a SPAC and is basically a tale of everything one needs to know in terms of why to stay away. Over the past decade, they've gone from earning about $1 per share to 1/10 of that while nearly quadrupling G&A and increasing total liabilities almost 10x despite being in a blowout housing market and having the corporate tax rate significantly slashed Shares outstanding have nearly doubled, and theres been a huge inventory built. There is a reason this has been a favorite of short sellers more or less since its de-SPAC-ing. Its only productive use is as a piggybank for the chosen ones. I mean even the POS story...that doesnt/no way in hell should happen with a company of this supposed footprint. You dont even hear of that kind of stuff at K-mart. So obviously, there is more going on then just "problems with the system". So personally, I wouldn't really want to hang around solely on the hopes of a buyout.

http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20191107/AKAON22CZC22L9Z2222A2ZZGMNPCZS22S2B2/ Total blowout. Looks like Phase I will be done at least 18 months ahead of schedule. Munibond issuance on its way. Homes flying off the shelf. Great stuff here. "Fiscal year 2019 was an extraordinary year for us, in which we were able to execute our land development business segment and expand our water utilities segment," commented Mark Harding, President of Pure Cycle Corporation. “We are pleased to have closed the sale of 255 finished lots, receiving in aggregate $18 million in proceeds. This amount represents an acceleration of lot deliveries to our home builder customers from our original agreements and a testament to the success of opening our initial phase of Sky Ranch. Given this acceleration, we expect to close the remaining 159 finished lots under our finished lot agreement and 92 lots under our lot development agreements during fiscal 2020, which is more than 18 months ahead of schedule. Subsequent to our fiscal year end, we have delivered and received 2 progress payments for an additional 95 lots pursuant to our lot delivery agreements and closed an additional 22 finished lot sales, due to strong demand from our home builders for us to complete lots to keep up with home sales at Sky Ranch. In addition to lot sales we also received payments for 113 water and wastewater taps in fiscal 2019 for a combined total of $3.5 million. As of October 31, 2019, our three home builder customers have been granted over 120 building permits and closed 11 homes with the new homeowners. Sales from our home builder customers continue to exceed forecasts, and we are thrilled with the success of our Sky Ranch opening” continued Mr. Harding.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/coca-cola-launches-its-biggest-new-drink-in-10-years-143007455.html Remove Coke from the list of suitors. I really haven't seen a company's CEO/majority owner neglect opportunities and purposely destroy value quite like Capporella has done. Seltzer water becomes a trendy new millenial/health fad, ride the wave up...great Competition marches in...close your eyes Fallacious hit pieces destroy the reputation of your company...act like an ever bigger lunatic in your quarterly letters Spiked seltzer becomes a craze...refuse to partner with an alcoholic beverage company Several large soda/drink companies want in to the bubble water craze....refuse to even entertain putting your company up for sale But hey, maybe he'll do another $2 special dividend. Since he's more or less just paying himself...

Yahtzee! https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1636519/000119312519287461/d828066dex991.htm Realign the spin, retain sports interests, split out the venues, and put London on ice. Game on.

Looks like it paid off well for you. Nice call! Hardly out of the woods yet, but hoping to get there soon.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17690858-msg-networks-inc-reports-fiscal-2020-first-quarter-results Result out. Do not look to reflect tender offer activity, but nonetheless, nothing special. That said, I dont need them to be anything special here.

https://nypost.com/2019/11/06/james-dolan-urged-to-sell-stakes-in-knicks-and-rangers-by-investor/ And another one. Curious if anyone is planning on attending the AGM next month?

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