Gregmal

I will ask now, cuz I know we've got a bunch of RE junkies here, myself included. Have we reached the point where anyone's buying Alico yet? LOL

Predicting trends(really just momentum), and especially behavior of the masses is actually quite easy once you figure out what to look for. If you are not in the markets to make money you should not be in the markets at all. If you are not able to adapt, well, you'll be like Einhorn, Pabrai, Klarman, Watsa, Tilson, Lampert, Cooperman, etc, etc, etc. I could go on and on. And while for most its comforting being in the same camp as all those guys and their current net worths, stalely quoting dated aphorisms from 50 year old books is often the biggest hurdle for folks to get over if they truly wish to consistently make money. The secret isn't quoting old books and 90 year old men, but maintaining flexibility and fluidity with respect to the current market and its conditions. Thats why Tepper is in a league of his own. "I know this is going to go up but I think its a bubble/scheme/poor valuation" is the dumbest thing I consistently hear from smart people. Either they are full of it, or just not cut out to invest. Because if you know something is going up, and you refuse to take advantage of it, thats stupidity.

Lots of money can be made in bubbles. And realistically, people call bubbles all the time but dont really even know what they're talking about until its too late. Same with recessions. Amazon was called a bubble stock its entire existence until the bubble callers got tired and just bought it about 3 years ago and now call it a legit investment. Tesla is still called a bubble. Who cares? I'm only interested in being on the side that makes money. I get no more satisfaction or money out of getting 10% on a long term held, vs a short term trade or merger arb, a loan, or flipping potatoes....only thing that matter is the P&L...and frankly, the folks who spend a decade missing out so they can have their 6-12 months of "I was right" can have it, I'd rather make money. This is another instance where the bubble can burst, my current BTC goes to zero, and I still have made out better than folks who sat on the sidelines scoffing and doing nothing.

Yup, and unless you have been to the sausage factory, you are prone to underestimate the inevitability of this continuing and accelerating. As more and more institutions begin to get in, which in large part simply means offering "product", this is going to get fun. Why? Because product sellers dont give one shit about price. Druckenmiller and friends might, although its hard to talk about valuations with something like this, but the institutions putting together a crypto ETF or BTC offering? $10k, $50k, $100k, $1M per coin? Makes no difference. They'll be buying as long as demand continues. Buying will beget more buying. Momo will take over. Real float is maybe 12M. I mean you dont even really have widespread, easy + direct access products for retail investors at the brokerages houses yet. And we already know this will work. Look at what indexing and ETF products did for FANGs...

There's few aspects that you kind of have to assess on a personal comfort level but generally speaking: 1) no. It makes zero sense IMO to assess a spac IPO on an individual basis, at least in terms of when I look back at years worth of buying them. I do look at the prospectus occasionally for a few things, but there's been ones where Ive said to myself, this looks boring, and demand is great and the end result is good, and ones where I've thought, this one is really exciting, and its been a dud. Ive never seen one, period, that hasn't provided the opportunity for at least a 2-3% exit, usually within a couple months. Back in the day, a lot of the institutional folks would simply sell the warrants and then down the line redeem the shares. Warrant was considered your "profit". I think the same logic applies to post iPO. You're really just banking on the mechanics of time value on the warrants separating from the pile of cash. You can, such as recently with something like RBACU, IPOA/B?now C I think or SPNVU look at the headliners there and conclude that its probably a safe bet the thing gets a nice pop on deal announcement. RBACU I remember being able to buying for a few weeks at 10.1 or less. Same for SPNVU until a couple weeks ago. If you're in it for the risk free 2-5% then it doesnt matter. If you are looking for a kick ass risk adjusted speculation, you have to be a bit more diligent and willing to pay the premium; ie usually those are trading at 10.4-11 on the units. The big thing now is to look for anything tech or green new deal marketable and then hope for a deal. Although the market is adjusting in that now almost all the ones IPO-ing are with that focus. They used to be very diverse in terms of their purposes. Latin American Construction focused, Distressed Housing, Life Science Royalties, etc. Now the prospectuses basically just say "tech" or "energy" and when the acquisition is announcements its kind of a reach but nobody cares. 2) For allocation purposes its tough and personally I just look at my available liquidity. You can put in for $50k and get all of it, or you can get $5k filled. Depends on demand obviously. In open market, I kind of weigh what my overall allocation looks like and also what opportunities are there, along with time horizon. I have no issues dumping these on the spot if I find a real investment and need the capital. If you stay disciplined in terms of buying close to $10 you obviously have minimal downside and the rare instance where maybe you have better use for the capital and take a 1% loss is more than made up for elsewhere. You can also just kind of trade the fluctuations. If a ran a "vagina fund" as I refer to them, of mostly super conservative objective, I'd probably just trade fluctuations on spac as you can pretty routinely clip .5-1.5/2% just trading these back and forth on market and supply/demand fluctuations.

Yea, that's basically what I do with the margin. As to the potential short term downside, I've been doing these for years and typically hold about a dozen at any given time, although with the spac boom of late they are being issued much more frequently and currently I'm sitting on closer to two dozen. I think the March meltdown is as good a proxy as any. From the ones I held, the biggest intraday decline was to 8.99 and most was 9.80s. Most of those ticks were opening trades on big gap downs and not more than a couple hundred shares. By the close all were within a % or so of the $10 mark.

Ive never reversed course in the same day either, but if your info processing/realization of the situation happens to change I see nothing wrong with adjusting. Generally speaking I try not to have any attachment to any company, period. Which does not mean you cant have long term holds, I have plenty of them...but the only objective is to make money. I can look at GOOG or BRK or many in between a see how they do well. With managers, there's too many layers of hard to account for variables. If you're bearish and you assume FRFH is a good way to play that but he still got it wrong, well that sucks and thats an added layer of risk. If I 'm bearish I rather leave the ball in my own hands with investments/instruments that assure if I am right, that I am rewarded. FRFH has dropped the ball there a few too many times for my liking.

I'm not up to date on my SPACs. What's the deal with PTICU? Nothing special. Last Proptech deal bought Porch which is a bit of a turd but I did alright with it. I have certain relationships with book runners for these and have been doing them for years(well before the spac mania started). Part of the deal is that its kind of pay to play. If they can count on you to take a few thousand shares you'll keep getting allocation; so I do. Its nearly impossible to lose money on just the units at a $10 price. What Ive found is there is almost a guaranteed 2-3% you'll make simply holding from IPO through day 50 when the warrants separate. So I do. Simple, and not worth overthinking.

Took down some PTICU IPO

Not advice, but simply what I try to do; trade your way into a bit of a cushion. Everyone is always worried about the bubble bursting. The earlier you get in, the better, then just manage it and derisk as you go. Bubble could burst today and in something like CRSP for instance, I could lose everything Ive got currently in the name and still have nearly 7x my initial investment. Take the initial stake(ideally a smallish sized position), trim aggressively until you recoup your capital, and buy the dips with discipline. Worst thing that happens is you lose your allocation if it goes to 0. SE aint going to 0.

Yea. Very volatile and not as liquid as you'd expect a $100B company to be.

Yea Ive been cranking out short/mid duration PSTH puts for a bit now. Its very bizarre. The premiums are huge so I'm a happy seller. I mean even down to the fact that from deal announcement to deal close you're typically looking at 3 months or so...yet you can get some juice on these thing a couple months out. Ive got a lot of March/June 20s and even a few June 17.5s

Approved for digital banking license in Singapore. Stock back to tiger by the tail mode.

I think doing it once is worth it as you get access to a great catalogue and then after that, once having familiarized yourself with the content, what works, how folks source ideas, etc, you should be able to take the training wheels off. Just my 2c.

Yea, I dont really like the terms and prefer honestly that they just sell 2.5M shares if they need the cash. As a shareholder, you are taught to care about dilution, but the market has for awhile now been saying it won't penalize you for dilution. But a 12.5% interest rate has real consequences if they dont execute.

I'm just fucking around, but in thought, yea, when a guy like Chanos, who even though he's gotten wiped out like he has on plenty of other shorts yet deeply and egotistically desires to just hang on so that one day when it crashes he can claim to have called it...throws in the towel. IDK, seems like a pretty good data point/box to check in terms of a turning point. Kind of like the value guys who started buying tech in 1999.

Trimmed the GEOS and some more CRSP, paid down some margin and bought a little GS.

Its really not that outrageous, is it? Information changes, you reassess. Its also how you avoid sitting on a turd like this for 10 years hoping and praying while everyone else in the market feasts...

Probably an indication that its a good time to short.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3641411-cryptocurrency-indexes-coming-to-s-and-p-dow-jones-in-2021 This is one of the greatest front running opportunities Ive ever seen, happening in slow motion, right in front of everyones faces over the past 12 months and likely to continue for the next several years. The greater the popularity, the more the institutional demand, the tighter the free float gets, so on and so forth. As a wise man once said, to infinity, and beyond!

I second GEOS. Bought a little bit and followed Gregmal into this. It's great little trade sized at 1%. That's exactly what it should be, no more no less. Trade up 15-20%, dump it. Trade down, buy a little more. Liquidation is $11, but you know what they say about cigar butts. Sheet, man. I guess you know what I did with a nice chunk of my position today then....

https://oxfordmetrics.com/news/2020-12-03/preliminary-results-for-the-financial-year-ended-30-september-2020 Declared 1.8 dividend. US still muted, not surprising given the business segments. Rest of the world doing fine and have developed a solid backlog at Vicon to springload 2021. Yotta expected to be fully profitable next year, a first. Also expecting at least 15% growth in recurring revenue at Yotta.

I haven't had the issue yet as I've been lucky to locate and retain longer term tenants. But if I had the issue, I'd politely let the occupant know that they signed a lease that allows me(or my agents) right of entry to show it provided I give reasonable notice and if they dont like that, one of the benefits of all my units is that they have basements...go there for 15 minutes. Everything will be fine.

At this point I'd question his "resources" given the.......degree to which they seem to translate to results.

The peer group is unreliable as the profiles have changed drastically over the last couple years. You dont really have a clean comp in terms of companies with 1) clean balance sheet + robust profitability and expanding margins, 2) vertical integration, 3) proven ability to execute and allocate capital in a disciplined manner, 4)success on the regulatory end. To put in perspective, as a pre close SPAC this traded to $17 or so. Granted the shares outstanding is a bit higher, but when you incorporate all of the above its hard not to argue that this should be the industry leader with the premium valuation that everyone talks about. We've gone through cannabis bubble phase 1. Consolidated. Post spac consolidation/settling as sellers and warrants get integrated and shaken out. These things can have quite a bit of velocity once the share distributions shake out and a true investor base forms. I did think for a quick minute the warrants may be an overhang, but nonetheless we've traded from $16-$28 in about a month, and there's still a pretty compelling case to be made that not only is this cheap on a relative basis, but it's cheap in absolute terms.