Gregmal

Now you cant use the bathroom in NYC.... Sincerely, Governor Cuomo

Haha. Yea every says "but Volkswagon" and stops telling the story before mentioning what it did after the spike. Largely, I like looking at things when they get to a point where everyone and their mother feel the same way. Thats the case right now with some of these stocks, especially Tesla. You CANT short it! So this, along with some other things, Ive been putting together a bit of a "bubble basket" of sorts. If Tesla doubles its worth 2.5x Berkshire and if it quadruples, its the most valuable company in world. I am not saying those things arent possible, but I dont think they'll last very long. And even if it does those things, the positions sized so that its still quite manageable. Whereas the odds of all that vs the odds of it being up 7x this year and much of that in the last couple months...I think thats stretched too. If things continue I have exposure that will offset the shorts and if it deflates, I like how I am set up. I'm generally not a fan of this type of stuff(shorting bubble stocks), but I also live by the philosophy of using framework for investing, rather than having rules. Over there longer haul I also try to ask myself where this fits in on a "next 10 year" chart? From that vantage point, are we currently near a bottom or a top? So I've placed my chips and we'll see where they fall.

The Bitcoin store of value theory is just a theory at this point. Relatively speaking, very few people own it and almost no institutions do yet. There is a huge risk that the theory is wrong. Also BTC is very concentrated in a relatively few accounts (so called "whales"). If the BTC store of value theory plays out the way I think it will, it will be a bumpy ride. Institutions trying to get in driving the price up, the occasional whale cashing out driving the price down. Quite times like most of 2020 where it drifts. Eventually this will all settle down and be more stable, but not anytime soon. It is the largest asymmetric opportunity that I know of. Maybe a once in a century type thing. Exactly. And its clear as day and has been for a while. Which is why its baffling to me how absurd some people behave with respect to what is obviously a speculation but also quite clearly defined...as you touch on above. You really cant risk 1% of your NW for something like that? You have to wonder wtf people are thinking. You play conservative with big bets/investments...sure. Absolutely makes sense. But 1-2% or so?!?! Yea, go nurture that 1% and compound it safely at 5% a year(probably too aggressive a figure TBH). Enjoy having 2% in 15 years lol....

Eric continues to execute. ATHs and counting. and STILL not that hard to make the case that its cheap. Something also to be said about a strip club operator that can get through a pandemic lol.

Why would they risk anything manipulating the stock? Especially when you could just legally pull shit like they did with Lexington/Moore.... As Ive said and warned for years, anything but any orderly liquidation is a deliberate gamble with what little is left.

Bought some more AIV. Flipped the ABNB tracker. Felt greedy looking for more than $20 per share in a couple days on something so obviously not worth what its trading for at the moment.

All I know is that while you guys were arguing, one of you made ~7%...

^^^Yea, talk to me when BTC has half the market cap of gold. Then again, when they match. We'll see what the prices are then and how its been as an investment.

Town school system sent out an automated message just now. Tomorrow is a snow day. Virtual classes are cancelled. Yup, teachers hard at work...

Then the answer must to be try them all!

Yea there are many contrarian indicators throughout the history of this(and other) threads here.

Yes, greening is still negatively impacting citrus production in Florida. Production is down more than 50% over the last ten years. The various interventions studied and applied have not been effective at reducing the spread. Infected trees have also been found outside of Florida, in Southern California and South Texas. There is a semi-last ditch collaboration with Bayer AG to identify a solution. In the meantime, a substantial amount of groves in Florida get transitioned to cattle grazing land. Yea this is probably a more informative answer than the one I gave lol. What you're looking at for Alico is a couple things that largely balance out. So the low point of ~25M pounds set a few years back was a one off. You had 43M this year vs 46M the year prior. 42M in 2017 and this up from 25m or so in the earlier part of the decade. That said, this is somewhat of an "apples to oranges!" comp. They consistently plant new trees and have been acquiring stabilized groves as well recently with land sale proceeds. However an overall decline in production is typically offset by price increases. Additionally, they generate over 80% of their revenue from a contract with Tropicana which they've literally had forever. So greening is an issue. It isnt really effecting Alico to any major degree due to the above, especially the way it was feared to in 2016 IIRC, rather it is something that effects the small grove operator/mom and pop type farmer. Typical big corporation will win type of things. With the benefit of decreased production equalling higher prices.

I'd also point out that the $3 NAV does not include the mezzanine loan which, while possibly a write down, from that base, provides a 6% annual income stream against the entire $3 NAV and if repaid in full, 60%+ upside to the NAV. This alone, is probably worth waiting around in massively scrubbed down multifamily, some of which at early 2000s prices. So I guess my back up the truck, 10%+ position buys will start in the mid 3s and pyramid down!

This is the stuff legends are made of! https://seekingalpha.com/news/3645062-bitcoin-worth-400k-says-guggenheims-scott-minerd-crypto-roundup Minerd says his team's fundamental work suggests Bitcoin should be worth $400K. I would imagine they are using a VERY liberal interpretation of the term "fundamental"....

LOL and this is why I really just dont GAF here and just let it be. God bless all you guys who do the work. But for the life of my investment in these, its basically been this....rumor this way, rumor that way, huge run, huge retrace, vice versa. Chicken with the head cut off. I'll care when its either worthless, or within a few ticks of par. Otherwise, not worth the brain damage.

Yea I also get curious when I see wording and phrases that seem unorthodox, especially in legal documents as they are always there for a reason. I am still dissecting this. Have a real good basis(relative to where this has traded) on a smallish position right now, but haven't got anywhere near dissecting everything in there yet. Hoping to make more progress in between breaks shoveling all this damn snow this afternoon/tonight/tomorrow.

Hamilton on the Bay closed a couple of months ago and it appears the figures you pointed to are representing 2019 YE so that probably is why its not in there. There's also this notation: Aimco will be well-capitalized with an estimated gross asset value of $1.3 billion, and an estimated Net Asset Value, or NAV (as defined in the Information Statement), of $1.2 billion, each as of March 31, 2020 (in each case, without giving effect to the value of the Initial Leased Properties or the Separate Portfolio Assets (each as defined in the Information Statement)). So I would think there is a bit of double counting in there.

Add in potentially non marginable, which takes out another layer of capital. Similar to SRG, I wonder if there is a case where conversion back to a C-corp makes sense. I'll also add, the mezzanine loan is not necessarily 0 or boom. Even just in the meantime the thing is spitting off $27M a year back to the company. I'd also add that while the staggered board and that whole enchilada seems bad, its less so after reading into it a bit more. All of that rolls off after 2024. The reasoning behind doing it like this actually makes some sense to me. I think this company looks a wee bit different 3-4 years from now. And generally speaking I'd say it makes sense to give them some time to get to work. You dont need to be a genius to make money as a developer in South Florida. As long as the music doesnt stop, I'd say you're probably good here. And really, I dont even think the music has started really playing. Anyone want to start pitching Goldman Sachs to take some space at 1001 Brickell?

Broke $20k. Go get em, Robinhood. Unleash the Kraken.

A lot of the greening stuff is resolved. Dont worry, my hippie sister who aced her SATs, turned down Princeton to go to UF, and then decided to work for FWC for $35k a year has great contacts in this space!(said 50% serious and 50% sarcastically). Alico has been recycling the conservation/protected land proceeds into additional groves. There is not really a catalyst here. But I think they've demonstrated over the past few years that theyre shareholder friendly enough. Solid inflation projection on multiple fronts here. Some free optionality on the mineral rights. I think its a pretty good 10-15% a year total return for a good long while candidate.

https://www.alicoinc.com/news/detail/1352/state-of-florida-approves-option-agreement-with-alico-to Always great doing biz with the government in a business friendly state. Another $14m straight to the bank. Not this first transaction of this nature and I'm expecting more of this in the future. Stock is wildly undervalued. party like it's 2005, what's next some TRC? And yes I'm aware that ALCO has changed drastically since its land bank value trap days, Trafelet drama and all that stuff. Long and strong the Sun Belt, baby! The mid 2000s housing bubble was more or less the 1990s tech bubble. Guess what came after that in tech? I think its our time here. Runway is long. I'll get scared the day I hear a coastal liberal governor start talking about lowering taxes or implementing some sort of weather changing apparatus that provides 70 and sunny 10 months a year for residents....

https://www.alicoinc.com/news/detail/1352/state-of-florida-approves-option-agreement-with-alico-to Always great doing biz with the government in a business friendly state. Another $14m straight to the bank. Not this first transaction of this nature and I'm expecting more of this in the future. Stock is wildly undervalued.

Got some AIV at the pre market open mid 4s. Early bird gets the worm? Or flattened at the open?

Agree. 1001 Bickell is a hell of a property and if you are doing development, South FL/Miami is probably one of the best markets. Further, it seems the office building is walking distance from the Yacht Club development, and a few miles from Hamilton. Grade A locations. I actually love that these are the redevelopment projects. Timing couldn't be better really.