Gregmal

I dont think you can blame Buffett but I also think in hind site there may be some ego preservation in order. If activity stopped on March 10 and on March 21 or whenever he capitulated on airlines... Not that airlines are investment worthy, but broadly speaking when one, according to the timeline, should have been backing up the truck, Warren already had packed up his belongings and was speeding away....that has to be embarrassing as a professional investor, regardless of how seasoned or successful you are. Add doubly to the problem, the businesses he and most of us know and love well were completely decimated by this and still look shoddy, meanwhile the ones he doesnt know or understand well hold up tremendously and even rebound right back to highs. For these reasons I think there is good likelihood he gives a materially negative market outlook that may in the short term move markets a little bit. At least this is how I read the tealeaves and positioned myself going into the weekend.

"Private investor" is a joke anyone who's been on a company earnings call will get. Its been especially annoying lately with the virtual AGM's. Operator "what company are you with?" .... A lot of folks doing this just tell people they are freelance consultants. That often is enough to satisfy surface level small chat. Its also open ended enough to give yourself generalized talking points should someone keep hammering away. Eventually if you want, you can take this to a response that will stump and or make the other personal feel stupid enough not to ask anymore questions.

"Private Investor"

While its disappointing, as someone who invests with a focus on great assets and great managers, I'm probably best served pushing aside the disappointment and realizing that Buffett will be Buffett and if thats why I bought Berkshire, then I shouldnt really be complaining(although many times I do anyway)...

Puts on IWM, VNQ added to some shorts as well. F, YETI, OPK Bought a little more ESRT

I like to see a better balance. Dont need dividends but if you are an acquisition-centric company, some combo of preferably buybacks plus dividend and debt pay down is what I want to see. If nothing else a bit of a hedge. Acquisitions are always dangerous, and sometimes all you need is one bad one to completely fuck your shareholders.

Yea lets not confuse money chasers with innovators, builders, and real philanthropists. Warren mastered money multiplying. But still works in a 20 person office, is cheap as fuck, and only after his wife died, was he able to figure out that theres more to life than business and money. Elon, as flawed as he is, is always thinking about solving problems and putting it all on the line to do so. The behavior often overshadows it, like with his ventilator offer or the cave diving rescue, but he's there. Gates and Bezos fall into the Musk category as well; just better behaved.

How aggressive are they buying back shares? ESRT and PGRE looked like roughly 4-5% of outstanding shares from March-April, CTO ~$9M(against $190M mc) in shares and convertible notes during the same period. FIZZ really just holds a floor at $40 and below so likely not a lot, but they have an immaculate balance sheet and sales have been crazy for them during this period of time.

ESRT, CTO, FIZZ, PGRE... all of them minus FIZZ doing so somewhat aggressively.

The market has provided ample opportunity for those who missed this in March to cash out with the S&P now where it was in October 2019. There should be no valid excuse for these people if they lose their shirts. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-turmoil-free-trades-draw-newbies-into-stock-market-11588158001 “I feel like everything that I buy, I watch pretty closely and if it’s something that’s not doing well, I’ll generally try to put [that money] into something that is doing well instead,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-29/firemen-and-romance-writers-faces-of-a-fierce-rebound-in-stocks “I’m a complete noob when it comes to stocks,” the mother of high school senior twin boys said while sheltering at home. “It’s not thousands and thousands of dollars that I invested, but it’s a start. We’ll see what happens. I hate to say it, but it’s like gambling, isn’t it?” More accounts were opened and dollars invested at E*Trade in the first quarter than in any prior full-year period, according to a company statement. The brokerage added 329,000 retail accounts and over $18 billion in net retail assets. Haha who would have thought that having everyone stay at home and enjoying free trades supports the stock market. Seems to me that we need everyone to stop working via a forced lockdown to get the SP500 to new heights. Apparently, the economy isn’t needed any more. What if some version of it is actually true? That is, stock market is sort of decoupled from main street as most of the stock ownership is primarily in the hands of top 20% in the income distribution. And these are the people least affected by the current events. The most affected areas are retail, restaurants, certain low wage factory jobs, and other low income service jobs requiring people to people interactions relative to other professions. And this will be true irrespective of lockdown or no lockdown because in each scenario, people are going to avoid interactions hence disproportionately affecting the same group of workers. Its very possible its true on some levels. The price of a Picasso doesnt crater because theres an economic slowdown, neither really do sports teams and plenty of other assets. The stock market reached 2007 peak when? Wasn't it like 2012 or 2013? While many folks didn't get back to life from pre GFC til years later; some never did. My personal hunch is that we're probably setting the stage for the last leg of the bubble blow up. Indeed, forcing people to sit home, the dates actually coinciding with the massive rally(IE since they've stayed home theres been little to do but trade stocks and everyone is making boatloads of money), just wets the appetite no different than a newbie winning their first hand of blackjack. That said its ignorant to just immediately write off other possibilities as well.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3567084-einhorn-barks-musk-again Poor David, still looking for answers in all the wrong places....You won't find the key to your decade long short position on Tesla's balance sheet.

I hate IBKR but keep most of my stuff there because its got the best margin rates. Nothing else. If Fidelity lent at 1% I'd have all my assets and AUM there. And FWIW, almost all firms have additional coverage(most actually use Lloyds as well), and when you sign the margin agreement, you basically acknowledged the firm can do whatever it wants with your securities. You have no recourse during a flash crash.

I feel like you and I live exactly the same life except I'm at Eastern Market and my park is Kingman Island/Anacostia bike trail/with an occasional Arlington loop sprinkled in. Having visited DC and done lots of tours of multi-family rentals, I have to say that I am incredibly jealous of what a $3,500 budget gets you amenity wise in DC vs NYC. Of course, I live and work from a pre-war apartment for $1,800 in Queens. The value guy in me can't pony up $6,000 for a NYC apartment. $3.5k a month 55 miles down the road... https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/41-Panorama-Dr-Warwick-NY-10990/31866455_zpid/? less than 500 coronavirus cases as well. Afterall you live in a perpetual quarantine out here.

The only homebuilders I would look at owning in this environment are NVR and GRBK.

Ha tell me about it. I love GOOG and cut down my many year position about 50% between January and last week. Average sale price probably around $1300. There is no way ad spend doesnt fall off a cliff I thought. Then they post earnings and its up $100 per share and again I'm reminded to stop trying to outsmart the market. I really do hope I get to repurchase it lower. But thats basically been the theme song of sorrow for any GOOG/AMZN/NFLX, etc type shareholder for at least the last decade. Personally, like you, I am trying to make sense of the market. Quite often, its me thats missing something rather than the market who's missing something. A tough pill to swallow as a disciple of the value investing doctrine.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/elon-musk-slams-coronavirus-shelter-in-place-orders-as-fascist.html I love Elon, but this is what you get for setting up shop in a blue state...smart guy like him should know better.

Just playing devils advocate, but didn't we just see that, for the most part(obviously there are exceptions) that margin of safety is kind of bullshit because its largely a mental framework? Everyone's value stocks just got obliterated and sure you have some high flying poo poo still in the mix, but its the high quality tech stuff that showed everyone who's boss. So to a degree margin of safety sounds great and the term is sacred to value investors, but Ive come to realize that having a superior, long lasting and durable business gives you a bigger "margin of safety" than buying something at a nice PE multiple. And I say this as someone who's long held some stocks being a big believer in the value investor term "out of favor", waiting for the stock to become "in favor". Look at BRK holding GM...how cruel is "margin of safety" and "buying when out of favor" to those shareholders? They just spent an entire decade getting nothing but a $1.50 per year dividend on a 5x PE stock and now have significant and material losses, no dividend, and well, a company in bad shape...now compare this to basically any QQQ company...

Was just kidding around. I wouldn't do either of those things....anymore. I'm a married guy with 2.5 kids, no longer in college, for better or for worse.

Hoping to win one of those All-In-Challenge Auctions https://www.fanatics.com/all-in-challenge/x-12589906+z-9713580-3838082054 Some pretty awesome once in a lifetime stuff. Unfortunately, I couldn't find "Blow Coke Off A Stripper's Ass With Hunter Biden" or "Tag Team a Porn Star With POTUS"... as such, I'll probably just have to settle for normal stuff when things re-open. Probably dining out with the family would be first thing to do. And then do it a bunch more.

Yup. All you can do is change your approach which involves psychological discipline and a contrarian predisposition. Otherwise, those declines happen for a reason, as you correctly point out. Its funny but people spent the past decade making the mistake of crying bubble(because THEY didn't agree with valuations) and fighting the fed. Somebody with this mindset literally missed everything, or at least most of the run. Then, we get a do over of sorts, and we immediately revert right back to fighting the fed and avoiding stocks like the plague because we dont agree with the valuation. I am guilty too. I went into the correction hoping to fix past mistakes in terms of the stuff I buy. I was adamant I'd focus more on high quality tech and solid operating businesses instead of the usual discount to NAV real estate garbage. I bought all that stuff, sold it a few days later for a nice short term gain, and now, look at my portfolio, what do I own? The same discount to NAV RE crap I did prior....breaking old habits is hard. The only inference from history is that you are better off literally ignoring valuations(that arent obscenely excessive) and just buying the highest quality businesses the market offers. You'd likely already be on to new ATH if that was the case here. Uncomfortable? Take smaller positions or build in over time. Worrying about valuations, is just a smarter way of saying that you are timing the market. Which is cool and all...but... Anyway, BRK is still "on sale" @ 192....

How about change the title to "What's next? The Market is back in a Bubble, or I'm Waiting To Buy The Dip"

Nice results here as well. Very interested in the upcoming VNO and SPG releases and calls. But the smaller guys seem to be doing pretty well, or at the least, have a good handle on things.

It baffles me why some stores are putting saran wrap over the keypads at self checkout. You still have to touch the same surface as everyone else unless it gets changed after every customer and we all know it doesnt...

To be fair, the jobs you guys are referring to...I dont think, if we drew a line down the middle and threw people into categories, that the folks who end up at those jobs EVER have to worry about not making rent or missing a minimum payment on the credit card. Of course there is the occasional feel good story, but its so rare that when it does happen they end up making a movie about you with Will Smith as the lead(and that wasn't even a real banking job). I'd be curious how many people on the GS IB team come from HNW families. For the folks that do have to worry about stuff like this, I dont think theyre concerned about those opportunities. Often in those dire times, I'd imagine its in their interest not to worry about managing the credit score and just focus on keeping a healthy financial position, which are not necessarily one in the same.

I’ve already got my rocks off on this name many times over. I have too little in skin in the game remaining in TSLA to argue over nonsense (noise) with you. -I'm not responsible for that -I dont commit to anything -I dont owe anyone anything -You're wrong, I was right -it's not worth my time arguing with you Who said it? Donald or Dalal Trump? Birds of a feather