Gregmal

Trimmed a tiny bit more GOOG, shorted some YETI

Agreed, I want to like this, but whatever its proposition is there are better propositions in other stuff right now. On a somewhat tangential note, there's been some articles about tons of "distressed real estate" funds being setup all over. Lot of money just waiting.

LOL yea. Marks has changed his mind now probably 4-5 times in the past 3 weeks. I agree the indexes look a little odd at these levels but stranger things have happened. Everyone is currently a short term trader and market timer. The overwhelming fixation? What is the market goes down, OMG?! Well isn't that part of investing in the stock market?

Everything in the universe? Ive got MSGN at $2.75B- assets are simple enough MSGS $7B then just kind of scribble in an annual % appreciation for the trophy assets. +5% annually should be the floor for IV. MSGE I think is now where more the value will be unlocked. The RE itself probably somewhere around $2B, the brands like Rockettes are hard to value but certainly worth something, cash, and of course the eventual Sphere but even that is interesting here. If theres a slowdown then construction costs should be able to get negotiated downward, or, the project could get scrapped. I see it as universally negative in peoples opinions of it, and I aint crazy about it, but it could also surprise folks. FV estimate at this point is probably around $3.5B Not exactly in the same light 100% but Ive always thought the MSG Company had/has a lot of similarities to an early stage Disney. If they are able to grow and lead the pack in the "experience" category, things could get very interesting.

They have pro forma numbers in form 10. MSGE will have about $1.7b cash and $253m debt after LA Arena transaction. MSGS will have about $100m cash. Most people are probably in this for MSGS assets. At today's price, MSGE is valued around its cash value while MSGS is about $4.3b for Knicks and Rangers. Would love to hear board members thoughts. Yup. I love the sports and probably won't ever sell, but the E is being given away. When you put on your long term investor cap, its crazy to think you are getting this biz, one that has hugely favorably growth runways with millenials+future generations, at these prices. Future consumption trends toward "experiences" and MSGE is one of the cleanest ways to play it, with a massive margin of safety at these prices. Ive been buying today. I also expect them to eventually pull the trigger on a REIT conversion here. Knicks at $5 and Rangers at $2 is reasonable, but thats all thats left in S, and you have to discount that until they are sold. $5B-$5.5B is probably my guess at FV for that.

MSGE

We have never had a situation where NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, PGA, NCAA, World Soccer etc were all shuttered at the same time for an indefinite period of time: minimum 6 months and more likely 12 months or longer. This is just one of many industries facing the exact same reality. My basic point is all of these closures have to add up to some meaningful economic contraction that will likely last a year (until a vaccine is ready). Financial markets are off to the races higher and likely pricing in a V shape recovery. We will see :-) I agree. I dont care for the enthusiastic degree to which we've already recovered. I just have a hard time seeing basic fundamental human behavior being broken so easily. Look at the near riots going on in some places because folks want to go out. Granted, sports are different. People will definitely still go, but do owners take on the liability of opening too soon?

On the flip side, we ve had plenty of lengthy lockouts where full or partial seasons were lost. It always comes back.

Not really investment related, but the upcoming Jordan series sounds like it's going to be huge. Pretty incredible story behind all of it, and in the world we live in, hard to imagine how in the world this sat unseen for more than two decades.

I'd much rather pay more for items I choose to buy(indirect tax) because the laws of supply and demand dictate it, than have a greasy handed government raise my taxes so they can dole out that cash to the places and people whom they promised things in exchange for votes.

I think people are wishing it is Trump's fault because that means there actually is an obvious solution that will come out. I don't think anybody could have done much better or worse. I don't think anything could have been done at cities like New York that has large international travel and relies heavily on the subway system. The virus was likely seeded already before anybody knew about it and the large cities were screwed without draconian Wuhan style quarantines and nobody could have done that. The only obvious mistake I see is the absolute fiery conviction that western doctors had that civilians should not be masked. Even now, I think there is a lot of blind faith that testing and contact tracing will work. I think it is actually getting more and more likely that we will be forced into the herd immunity route whether we like it or not. I think this is a great way of rationally describing much of this. The idiocy of lockdowns isn't in locking down areas where its needed, its doing so to areas that arent. Sure, NYC was obvious...but the knee jerk to just declare a statewide shut down? WTF do the economies or landscape of Manhattan and say, Oneonta, NY have in common other than, NY, on the postal address? Small businesses in areas like Oneonta are significantly more fragile and will take longer to recover from this(if they recover at all) than "supposed" small businesses who can afford to pay $6,000 a month to rent an 850 sq ft cockroach infested shitbox in the 100xx zip area. The lockdown was done in a very lazy and sloppy manner.

"Then he turned his attention specifically to the media. “So look. If this insanity happens, again, news sources have to rein it in. Everyone knows corona is no walk in the park because you literally can’t walk in the park. But at some point the daily drumbeat of depression and terror veers into panic porn,” Maher continued. “Enough with the ‘life will never be the same’ headlines and stop showing us this,” at which point the screen displayed a common graphical rendering of coronavirus. Maher then said that anything “you magnify a thousand times” looks scary, and to illustrate that point he showed an extreme close-up of a pubic hair. Then he noted a recent Washington Post headline, ‘It Feels Like a War Zone,’ which included a photograph of a supermarket stocker unloading boxes in a store’s eggs and deli meats section. “This is not a war zone. This is a man with a box of eggs. And I’ve never seen a war zone with this much bacon,” Maher joked." “Two weeks ago, ‘Inside Edition’ said 76,000 in the world had died so some are making comparisons to the apocalypse. The apocalypse? Really? Because most of us are sitting at home smoking delivery weed and binge-watching a show about a gay zookeeper,” https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/bill-maher-media-calm-down-032951586.html Hilarious and true.

Should the President replace Fauci/Birx? I was clear all along I am not a believer that Trump deserves much credit or blame for most of this. However others disagreed. Despite really refusing to give numbers, and declaring a disaster was a certainty, and that it was all Trumps fault, surely you'd think they'd be heaping praise on him now that the totals they were either projecting or implying were giant fairytales, no? Nah...Of course they dont. They just change the story. Again.

Yea pretty much. Either that, or he simply lost interest, which would be more than understandable at this point. He's waiting for an elephant, and otherwise, probably considers other things more pressing. But to defend his investments the last decade is pretty stupid. I mean even just standing pat, are we really heralding someone who's sitting on a huge concentrated portfolio of financials and companies that got hit hardest by this? Many, which are clearly stagnant if not deteriorating businesses, that he likely refuses to liquidate for no other reason than not wanted to pay taxes? (after, not to mention, being one of the loudest advocates of "paying your fair share" nonetheless). I hope he bought some of the names he long said he wished he had bought earlier but missed. But I'll settle for slow and steady buybacks because it increases the value of what I own when the guys underneath him finally get in the batters box. I'm significantly more excited about post Buffett/Munger BRK than I am about its current form. Likely won't have too long to wait.

Further, if you want to get more into specific issues to take issue with, theres a few. First, any year in which your stock losses a third of its value or an amount that is negative, let alone double digit negative, nobody should be getting rewarded. This is bullshit and flies in the face of enduring hardship. Rather it rewards folks when the result(even if short term) does not merit it, and allows for a situation where some feast while the majority famine. Second, in respect to one, this has only been enabled by bullshit firms like Korn Ferry whom are employed by firms like Occidental, to justify executive compensation. Right? Yes, you read that correctly. The firm pays an outside firm to tell them its ok to pay themselves what they want and even come up with presentations and peers groups so this can be rationalized to its shareholders or further pay increases can be implanted later on. Yup, your shareholder resources are being spent to hire consultants to justify paying your executives for -30% during a year the broader market just did +30%... These firms cook up "relative performance" and "peer groups" as an excuse to squeeze this shit through. NO ONE, misses bonuses during years when the stock is up double digits whether warranted or not. They all always take credit. But when its down, having a peer group gives them fingers to point and say things like "it was tough for everyone" or "we did better than so and so"...its all a scam. Third, lets not forget the disastrous APC acquisition, which should be a complete bonus torpedo in any world where real performance and decisions where judged fairly. That acquisition, the 106.5% bonus payout acquisition, could prove to be fatal for equity holders. But at least Radman is happy about the well results....those will be a boon for new equity holders I am sure.

Yea, cool. I remember you continually rationalizing things like this at GM as well. Hopefully you dont still own that too.

On the index vs active discussion, I think an interesting aspect that many flip into a conventional wisdom but ultimately detrimental narrative is that an index is an unguided ship and with active management you have someone captaining that ship for you to navigate tough times. However, this assumption I often faulty. Index funds dont make decisions, which, bringing this back full circle to Buffett and Munger; sometimes, in fact a lot of the time, the less decisions you have to make, the better. And more often than not, sitting on your hands and doing nothing, is the best move. Sounds obvious but on a deeper level, its actually quite contrarian.

Gregmal can, of course, speak for himself, but I think he's suggesting that that's not the real world alternative for many people, who would actually be choosing between Miller and something like a CD. I don't know if he's right about how many people see their real world alternatives, but you seem to be talking past each other with your question. Yea I'd probably just take the index. But I'd also probably watch Millers portfolio and occasionally margin up to steal a few of his ideas!

I'm actually surprised you're supporting Miller here. I've seen plenty of times that you've talked poorly about how fund managers are paid for their underperformance. What if we didn't get the TARP bailouts? Miller probably wouldn't have even lasted to 2012. His drawdown was almost 70%! You can't just compare Miller against his peers and determine whether he was "elite" or not. Those peers didn't start at the same time, they could have different mandates, less clout within the organization, etc. Like I said, discount his first couple months and he trailed the market. Look at a different fund (with few assets and no fees) trailed the market. Look at the amount of risk he took and he still trailed the market. It was fairly well known that index funds beat active managers even in 1982. I'm not comparing him to a market time strategy, different allocations or what people stick to or not. We're comparing US long only stocks vs US (mostly) long only stocks. If you can't beat a simple index, with vast resources, why are you elite? Because you might have beat some guys that didn't have the same slack from their employers? If you had to take Miller vs an S&P 500 index fund over say, the next 10 years, which would you choose? The reason I feel different here is because Miller isn't Einhorn or Paulson. He has a much more challenging vehicle to operate than just a standard run of the mill hedge fund. He also doesnt consistently make the same mistakes. I think guys who are flexible and adapt deserve credit. Right? Lee Cooperman, great track record, how many times Lee are you going to buy some pos energy company and watch it go bankrupt? Icahn too? Einhorn; how long are you going to short Amazon because its PE does make sense, to YOU! John Paulson, awesome you did 1000% annualized for a few years starting out and nailed the big short trade, but -30% a year for the bulk of the recovery while popping up new funds every other year banking on marketing your trades from yesteryears? Get the fuck out. Miller is IMO of course, higher quality than those guys who rightfully deserve lots of criticism. Your point on the bailouts? Well, part of the game was predicting that would happen. Again, case in point, David Tepper. No bailout, Tepper is just another guy with a fund and sneaky good returns rather than the guy holding the current heavy championship belt.

So it coincides with the data from the countries who have been in lockdown? Interesting. As I originally said, probably to the delight of many, Trump fucked up and panicked because it came time to either make a decision, or pass the buck. Allowing the shutdown was catastrophically stupid. Just use common sense. "Every 1% increase in unemployment means 40,000 people die". We just increased unemployment, 100% willingly, by a gazillion million percent, because a low 5 figure number of old people and folks with conditions might die... Donald Trump.... "I'm not responsible for that"

I agree with your broader point (which I don't think is disputed) that beating an S&P 500 index fund over 30 years after fees while running a U.S. open-end mutual fund (with all of the '40 Act constraints that entails) is very difficult. See, for example, the long-term returns here: https://www.tweedy.com/resources/vf/FactsTWEBX,%2020200331.pdf https://southeasternasset.com/investment-offerings/longleaf-partners-fund/ https://fpa.com/docs/default-source/funds/fpa-crescent-fund/literature/fpa-crescent-fund-update-q1-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=2 https://www.sequoiafund.com/Performance This list is cherry-picked from a group I've heard of (which suggests they're fairly well regarded) and that have lasted decades, so its got a big survivorship bias, which ought to bias the returns higher. Yet still the performance is underwhelming. But if an individual investor is incapable of putting $1,000 on the 1st of every month into an S&P 500 index fund, come hell or high water, then that investor also isn't going to continually give that money to Bill Miller either for the same reasons. So, what is Bill Miller's active management doing for them? Also, if Bill Miller has amazing analytic ability as you suggest, do his returns suggest to you that analysis actually isn't worth very much? I mean, the names you quoted I hold in high regard as well. Definitely upper echelon. Ive read about a few dozen firms the past few months that went into business in the past year or two looking to exploit a market downturn, that are already out of business. I think an individual should be capable of putting $1000 a month into an index fund, but how many actually do, consistently? The biggest reason for a manager, is to make decisions for you. There is an underlying psychological truth applicable to most human beings, especially coddled North American ones; they HATE taking responsibility or making commitments to anything. Look at Dalal in the coronavirus thread for the most blatant example of failing to commit. EVERYONE talks, IE "oh the index would have done better", but many refuse to back it up. There is no single greater commitment than putting ones money to work, and no more "real" and "personally challenging" way to do that than directly hitting the buy/sell button oneself. One of my favorite quotes of all time is from Tepper and its along the lines of "there is a certain rush when it comes to putting in your orders. When you hit the buy or the sell button, you are effectively betting that the guy on the other side of the trade is an idiot". Not many people are wired like that and that is why things like index funds and mutual funds exist in the first place. Look at how many people post here... now look at how many post in the buy/sell threads? So in a round about way, is buying Miller's fund efficient? IDK probably not. That said would I pay what I charge people to manage their money? Probably not. But having someone else do the work for you is always expensive. Ever get your brakes done? $300 do it yourself but then be accountable for the performance of your work. $800 for a guy with barely a high school diploma and a drug habit to do it, but most walk away with peace of mind...

The evidence that he is a superior investor is no more apparent than simply looking at all the failures during even a fraction of that timeframe. Then look at the guys who got by, but trailed miserably. If you can put Miller up against peers and show me he is nothing special, I am open to changing my opinion of him. But the guy definitely has been in the upper echelon of investors. Fees are part of the game; everyones returns would be different without them. Most people, honestly, probably cant even buy an index fund. Things are always presented as "well ya coulda bought an index fund and done better". But thats hogwash because no one does that and sticks to it. You've got folks who want to time the markets, folks who are too scared of everything to put in a full allocation, folks who try to make buying an index into a complex strategy with hedging techniques, etc. Everyone makes that claim. Ive yet to meet many who strictly just "buy the index" without any of the above issues. Saying "oh but fees" IMO is silly. Thats how these guys run a business. My dining bill would be much more economic if not for tips...my insurance would be cheaper if not for agency markups...my home sale proceeds would be greater without realtor commissions...thats life. You need a service, you pay for it. If you can do better yourself, then do it. But the number of people who think they can do it better and the number that actually can are very different. Miller also has shown a remarkable ability to go anywhere and analyze anything in any sector. Compare that to guys like Buffett who immediately write off half the investing universe because they dont get it, or guys like Icahn who are undoubtedly rich, but cant seem to get out of their own way and continuously make the same mistakes with shit like energy stocks.

Come on... you're substantially underselling Bill Miller. Managing money, charging the fees he does, and still beating the markets over a multi decade period is pure insanity. As money manager, especially of non private vehicles, having your cake(taking down the fees) and eating it too just doesnt happen very often, if at all. He is certainly a unique investor and sees things in a different light than most. Look at when and where he figured out RH, and compare that to the BRK position taken last fall...

+1 on that buffetteer1984. Others have clearly surpassed him and its a sorry state when the best deals, while also the only deals, he can muster are garbage like OXY... Would have just been better off buying SPY or QQQ. Which ironically enough, is often his advice he gives to everyone else. And I say this with BRK about an 8% position. I dont mean to shit on him, but my bullshit detector has been going off for a while here and this recent downturn to me is make or break for determining where this guys head is really at. There's no excuse if he didn't at the least, buy back some stock and pick up some of the easy stuff. I believe he did.

"Separately, Occidental discloses CEO Vicki Hollub received a 6.5% increase in base salary and grabbed a 106.5% bonus in 2019, with total compensation rising 13% to nearly $16M, even as the company's stock lost a third of its value." Disgusting