Castanza

The one major Canadian city I haven’t been to ? Thanks for sharing, I figured it was something along those lines, but also assumed there were some policy differences between there and the states. Sounds pretty familiar

What's the primary driver of home prices in Canada? Every time I go up there is seems like there is so much room to build. Even just outside of the bigger cities the urban sprawl doesn't seem that terrible. I don't see the same geographical constraints that some cities like NYC have.

+1 BSM

I would say the moat of NOW is greater than Splunk. The difference is, one is a foundation for ticketing, event monitoring, external documentation db reference, team organization (think corporate teams, IT depts, engineering depts.), external tool building db reference. Where the other tool (Splunk) is more of a bolt on/ external tool. Both are sticky, but I think the Splunk segment is a bit less “rootable”. It will be interesting to see what companies like Palantir push out for corps.

I agree with this logic. Admittedly I haven’t gotten up to speed with this until recently, but the risk vs reward is intriguing; not to mention the uniqueness of the structure. The recent decline was a great buying opportunity if your timeframe is 5+ years. Seemed like a shakeout of all the week hands speculating on a quick option and hopeful exuberance for some “sexy growth deal”. I started a position when it dipped under $22

All of what you say sounds very familiar. My company uses NOW and also Splunk (which I’ve helped to deploy). Definitely can be a major pita. It’s a good product though, and certainly offers a lot of visibility and customization. My one grip, and I’m sure other companies are the same way, but it’s a lot to maintain. Our company decided to hire some dedicated Splunk resources since it became unmanageable for the typical IT teams. Definitely a sticky business though. Gives upper management more to bitch and moan about ? I wish I would have bought NOW a few years ago. I saw how engrained the software was to companies once implemented.

Cubs you used to work in software sales right? Small position in $FNMAS why not...perhaps the reckoning day has arrived?

You could also short treasuries and hold 3x Ultra Short Leverage 20 year t-bill ETF. I believe Burry took a position like this (they wrote a book about him ). But the SEC also made him shut his mouth a month ago and he had to delete his twitter

So where do you put your money? Gold? Property? Equities? Bitcoin?

Sounds like something unions and pension funds won’t like

Stumbled upon this article that was interesting. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fed-sanguine-inflation-view-recalls-arthur-burns-by-stephen-s-roach-2021-05 When Chinese and Mexican food are getting expensive you know there’s a problem. If Top Ramen goes up....well, better head for the hills

Interesting times for sure. Thanks for sharing that Twitter thread. But do we know it is transitory at this point? I was always under the assumption that this view needs to be held in hindsight? I think everyone is hoping it’s transitory while clutching their pearls. By no means am I well versed in anything macro, but perhaps someone could share examples of things that were alluded to being “transitory” in the past yet ended up simply staying inflated?

Just some anecdotal evidence of inflation I’ve seen in my personal life this past week. Groceries: Bought a bag of 6 green peppers, single red onion, spring mix lettuce, portabella mushroom sliders, bbq sauce, quart of raspberries $27....for vegetables.....the onion alone was 2.50.... McDonald’s: Grabbed two McDoubles (1.39 ea), small fry ($1.56). Came to like 4.70 after tax. Haven’t been in a while but that seemed significantly more. Lowes: Two 8ft red oak corner trim pieces, 1 8ft pine finger jointed cove trim, a single brass door hinge, two simple hooks for hanging tools in a garage, tube of white lightening caulk. $90..... Went out to dinner with the wife two a small brewery near us. For the usual pub food dinner and two drinks each we paid $100 before the tip...same food and drinks cost us $65 a little over a year ago. Ive also noticed that almost no stores seem to be having sales on clothing/goods. Could be two things....pent un demand so no need to lower prices or making up for lost revenue/increased costs behind the scenes. in general I’m seeing about a 50ish % increase in prices of pretty much everything. Now I’m not poor, I have no kids and I budget wisely so it’s not killing me. But for the folks who barely make ends meat, I’m sure it’s killing them. Especially the groceries. My area is not HCOL by any means so I can’t speak for those who live in NYC etc. My prices might be lower than your average costs

The issue is far bigger than the US too. A lot of it comes from globalization and cheaper labor elsewhere. We can raise the minimum wage all we want. That’s a temporary stimulus imo.

It was sent to people who were recently working and forced out of their job. I think that's close enough and even more insightful since it showed in the matter of a few months how individuals (who were working) can have their mindsets changed by free handouts. Humans are inherently lazy. If you hand out money people will simply find ways to scale down time spent working. Most people are not driven to work more. Anyone who has worked a minimum wage job can see this for themselves. I have worked a lot of jobs in which I intermingled with "low income" people. There were plenty of opportunities to pick up extra hours (getting close to 40), strive for promotions etc. The reality is most of these people were still looking for excuses to work less. I worked at a lumber yard one summer because they were offering a temp position of $11/hr. Over the course of a few weeks I had the best job in the plant while some other individuals who have been there 20+ years seemed content with their boring job of banding logs together (or some other monotonous task). This was the case everywhere I worked. I guarantee you that if these people got free money, they would be looking to reduce their work hours. I will argue that UBI will increase the wealth gap over the long term. The small amount individuals who are productive/task oriented/achieving in society will use the money to their advantage while the majority of individuals will use it to justify more laziness. 90% of people work unfulfilling jobs and do nothing but think of ways out. It gets worse the lower you go on the income scale, and the ability to get out of said job also becomes less likely the lower you go on the income scale. So the best solution for most would be to work less as it's the quickest way to ease the "dread" of working a shit job. It's much easier to buy cigarettes and booze or but a new fishing rod than it is to spend money on education or starting a business. If you had 10k of free money what would you do with it? Probably invest it or use it productively on your house, debt, etc. Now head down to your local trailer park and ask the same question.

Tom Cotton called for investigation almost immediately and got laughed out of the building as a conspiracy nut. View the twitter thread to see the difference in headlines. Hell even FB just lifted a ban (today) on posts that say Covid was potentially man made. I mean, you have a global pandemic arise from a major pharma hub in a country that is pretty damn shady and the next logical conclusion of the big brain intellects is "bat soup"?! I mean the two proceeding "coincidences" should be enough to at least have a bipartisan effort to investigate. Common sense in my opinion.

VIMEO (VMEO) down 19%

A lot of the local restaurants where I live are struggling because they cannot get people to work. Many of them have gone to reduced hours and reduced days despite everything being open with virtually no restrictions. Incentives matter

Does it need to be relevant? ? I think it’s pretty interesting. @wabuffoand others certainly put effort into these discussions. It’s quite hard to say how much of an affect any macro changes have on individual investors. Regardless, Id rather have some speculation, insight, and discussion to mull over than none.

You can hold both views simultaneously. I think the idea of crypto is great. But I think it’s highly likely the govt cracks down on it hard. Criminals always find a way, sure crypto provided a new avenue but really it’s a litmus test for how secure and anonymous it actually is. Hell the Taliban has been using Monero for quite some time.

I wonder if they will make a Texas “Rolling Blackout” Edition

Cherry on the top is Jordan Belfort (yes that one) interviewing the Tether founder Booze is encouraged

Tether said it was 100% backed by US currency and is still avoiding being audited. I think it's semantics. 80% is not a small number, and many of the other top cryptos also have similar flows. This just has Ponzi Scheme written all over it.