Castanza

Why? What exactly did they do wrong? Let’s jack up the Capex on all of these companies so the already razor thin margins in the airline industry tighten even more and increase prices putting air travel back out of reach for the average American. Edit: either provide assistance with terms on the loan and let them handle it. Or don’t. You’re crossing the line when you try to dictate wages and all kinds of other political nonsense. Why not just buy out the airlines, convert it to a co-op and then handout copies of the Communist Manifesto? “Never let a good crisis go to waste!” Just another excuse to expand government control...

I hope she conveniently ends up on the no fly list for all the airlines.

Bill has no business saying things like "We will see millions dead." I generally agreed with what he said, but his "activism" should begin and stop at the business/investor role.

Trading like a devil on steroids is the only thing that works now. BJ is up like almost 50% and their financials don’t even look that great. However, I don’t think they have to worry about renewals of their store leases all that much. Crazy times call for crazy measures :P

You're better off buying an actual gun at this point. If the NAT guard gets deployed you will have Martial law meaning no gun sales (at least over the counter).

So much for the DAL floor at 45 :P

Same, was surprised it hit today.

He's like that about everything though. But I generally agree with what he was saying.

More infectious that H1N1 (24% global pop with .02% death rate) Less deadly than SARs (15% mortality rate compared to COVID-19 3.4%) Both of the above didn't receive vaccines or treatments for 8-9 months into the outbreak. SARs primarily was treated with antivirals and steroids. The vaccine was only available towards the end of the outbreak that was fizzling out on its own. For the medical experts on this forum. Why shouldn't we expect this to be somewhere in the middle? https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-deadly-is-the-coronavirus-compared-to-past-outbreaks#So,-when-will-things-calm-down-with-COVID-19?-

Watching the $F dividend gang sweat is some great entertainment right now.

Exited UPS at 101

@Dalal Genuinely asking (not being a dick), as a Tesla bull are you buying here?

My view has shifted quickly as prices continue to come down. Cash cows are now at the tops of my list right now. BRK, GOOG, FB, TPL, etc. Airlines once we have more clarity and some of the medical device companies are beginning to look interesting as well. I also don’t understand this (imo) nonsensical argument that everyone will be permanently working from home after this passes. Office space is generally a very small fraction of OPEX for most companies. When this passes, people’s desire to “get out” will look like a champagne bottle blowing it’s top. If we avoid any type of major recession and job/pay loss that sentiment will remain high. Americans specifically are busy individuals. Cabin fever will begin setting in shortly and “Don’t shit where you eat.” will be the new religion a few months after this is over.

This is what you happens when you try to combat a viral outbreak by listening to "nudge boy" behavioral economists and pseudoscientists. Rapidly achieving "herd immunity" sounds good on paper, but then you have to actually think about what will happen on the way to getting there... Some people still clearly have not learned the basic "flatten the curve" concept. Thank you for the inputs. Here's another perspective related to the UK situation and the "report": https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-17/prolonged-social-distancing-would-curb-virus-but-at-a-high-cost FWIW, despite some reserves, I heavily support (indirectly and directly) the pro-active efforts deployed in my provincial jurisdiction which, for various reasons unrelated to the virus or the policies, has been relatively lucky, in terms of spread and impact, at least so far. I guess it is still relevant to ask questions, to adapt and to go for cost effective measures (definitions of "cost" and "effective" remaining open for debate). I just read that government officials announced that economic measures to be taken will prevent unemployment from rising to 20%. They are basically looking to flatten the curve. So a flurry of bailouts are coming and the emphasis has to be on the short term and I'm OK with that, at this point, although Bagehot, long ago, suggested that bailouts should balance the short term against the long term and moral hazard. As an avid follower of the GFC, I remember government officials suggesting then that another great depression could be avoided (although impossible to verify) with various monetary and fiscal bailouts. I would suggest that they tried to flatten the curve in a way but people ran out of will and perseverance and we've had the weakest recovery on record, a glaring absence of deleveraging and, in fact, developed economies have become very weak and compromised economic hosts and now a virus hits. It appears difficult to explain, at least from my humble perspective, why we should be surprised by the eventual course of economic events. I just worry about unintended consequences and wonder if, at least, we can base our decisions on solid data, analysis and rational reasoning that truly balances the short term with the long term? Can we think of (and implement) necessary reforms or do we just need that they become imposed on us the way natural selection can and simply hunker down? The downturn itself is essentially being ordered by the government. This thing would blow through quickly if there were no "social distancing". So given that they are effectively contributing to the severity of the downturn, we already have interference with free market principles before the first check is written. Under that environment, bailouts are fair game and they do not introduce moral hazard. It's very different situation from a financial crisis precipitated by extreme excess and rewarded with a bailout. Well put Eric. Even Justin Amash is in favor of individual bailout. It has to be one or the other. You either force shutdown and provide temporary loans to individuals or you let people stay open. Completely different from 08 as this wasn’t brought in by individuals.

What line of credit? They do not have any. They have about 1.1B$ in cash and unencumbered assets around 700M$. Which in % terms of operating expenses is probably better liquidity than any other US airline. Deliveries are a bit concerning in this environment, but hey - maybe they will retire the 319 airbuses sooner. You're correct, should have looked into this stat posted on twitter more. This guy said line of credit when he should have said shareholder equity...(just checked the 10k)

I wonder what strings are attached to the credit line? They probably can last a year before becoming a zero. Also I can see some issues with their plane orders if Airbus doesn’t work with them.

1.1B Current Liabilities 1.02B cash 2B line of credit available Fuel is 30% of opex (so a grounding would reduce that) 3.3B total opex 2019 27 planes owned outright Government bailout on the horizon What am I missing?

re-entered some GOOG around 1080 Edit: RTN 117

Sold as well today. I agree with your assessment, it’s too operationally leveraged. The service contracts get paid by flight hours and engine deliveries may be on hold. I think the stock to buy is Airbus, when this clears up a little. I wonder how lenient Airbus will be with deliveries. I can picture a few airlines hoping to hold that ship at sea.

FMCSA likely to grant 80 hour workweeks for these guys. Investment wise no clue....likely to see rotating weekly shifts with layoffs to preserve capital. Under normal economic conditions I like UPS under $90. But will not be adding any for a few months. Hard to believe FedEx is this cheap. To think it was at 270s a little over a year ago.

I did pickup some ammo (not for this purpose) Saturday. The store was unbelievable packed. You had everyone there from the preppers wearing WWI style gas masks to the "show me where the bullets go" former anti-gun guy. There are a lot of irrational people out there (see Samsclub wine bottle stabbing). I'd recommend avoiding the masses simply because of the crazies running around. I hope you all stay safe out there. ______________________________________ LEAPS are certainly looking interesting, but I have a hard time believing we are anywhere near the bottom. IV is so high right now on many equities you'd likely be losing money even if your position was itm.

Hitting the bottle early today? I think after noon is social acceptable but I usually start with lighter fare. No haha just picking stuff up while I was out and about. Edit: Looks like I went just in time :p Time to start selling $20 shots to the neighbors (https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-coronavirus-shutdown-statewide-governor-tom-wolf-20200316.html)

Stopped by the liquor store during lunch picked up a few bottles of red, Glenlivet 15, Bird Dog, and a case of Founders All Day IPA.....Apparently they are closing liquor stores in PA. Lock down without booze would be miserable....

Free market principles are abandoned the minute the govt says you can't do this and you can't do that. This is a very different situation from past financial crises. I wouldn't have supported bailouts in 2008 for anyone. I agree that individuals should have emergency funds, responsibility is important. You can't lock someone in a jail cell and then tell them to feed and support themselves. Either let stuff stay open and provide no type of assistance or close up shop and provide assistance with stipulations. Can't have the cake and eat it too. Or...tap your 6 months of an emergency fund? To each their own. I know I'll be helping people where I can.

Free market principles are abandoned the minute the govt says you can't do this and you can't do that. This is a very different situation from past financial crises. I wouldn't have supported bailouts in 2008 for anyone. I agree that individuals should have emergency funds, responsibility is important. You can't lock someone in a jail cell and then tell them to feed and support themselves. Either let stuff stay open and provide no type of assistance or close up shop and provide assistance with stipulations. Can't have the cake and eat it too.