Liberty

The commodity prices might not be that low, but the valuations sure have taken a hit. The TSX Venture went from something like 2500 to 800 in a couple years. Deploying some cash now could very well turn out to be near the low of that cycle.

Looks like Google isn't too different on that front (well, the main difference is that Apple allowed 15 minutes while Google allows 30 minutes): http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2014/01/google-play-store-lets-your-kid-spend-like-a-drunken-sailor/index.htm

3.9 million FTP.DB.A traded today. Not sure what it means (if anything), but definitely not normal volume.

Thanks. I wouldn't mind a few more articles like that to make buybacks more useful. Here's a different take on the NYT piece: http://blogs.computerworld.com/smartphones/23409/apples-china-mobile-iphone-launch-weak-really Who's right? Guess we'll only know when the numbers come in over the next few quarters.

Thanks Cunninghamew. It's really the crux of the matter, isn't it? Is their model a gimmick that falls down after a while, or is it a sustainable way to create value. Are they more like Capital Cities or other 'Outsider' companies, or more like one of the failed rollups mentioned in the piece? One important aspect is the tax structure. I'm not a tax expert, but even if I was, I doubt I could have a completely definitive negative opinion against the structure because obviously Valeant hires competent high-priced tax experts who think it works. What I find reassuring is that a lot of global companies with valuable IP do similar things (Google, Apple), so it's very likely to be ok under the current law. That law could change, and that's one of the major risks for the model, but all businesses have specific risks and we have to ask ourselves if we can live with them. Just my 2 cents, for what it's worth (and since they're Canadian cents, they're worth a lot less lately...).

Thanks you, good one. Makes me think that the very best returns can be found when cyclical inefficiency is combined with sector inefficiency; find a sector of the economy where there's lots of inefficiency (small caps because bigger players can't go there?), and invest in it when the market is at the bottom of a cycle, overreacting to something. Of course, easier said than done, and at such time you might prefer to look at this that are normally never cheap like high quality large caps rather than small caps that get cheaper more often...

Cotton prices have been moving back up lately. That's also a positive. (I like to keep an eye on NYSEARCA:BAL, the iPath DJ-UBS Cotton Subindex Total Return SM Index ETN, and on http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=cotton )

Just look at where it was trading before the duty was announced. I think it would be a very big deal if it's removed.

Check your private messages :)

Thank you!

Interesting developments, thanks for sharing!

https://www.solarcity.com/pressreleases/222/-SolarCity-to-Introduce-Solar-Financial-Products-for-Individuals--Institutions-of-All-Sizes.aspx SolarCity to raise money from small investors.

37,000 claims with over half a billion iOS devices. Not bad. My understanding is they had a feature where you could have the device remember your password for X minutes after you entered it, which is convenient for people who want to buy a bunch of apps or songs in a row. But some people's kids figured that out and outwitted mommy and daddy. Not exactly a scandal. Guess that's a benefit of the fingerprint scanner... In fact, another benefit of the fingerprint scanner will be when they implement multi-user logins. Kiddo presses the home button and goes to his home screen, with his settings and documents. Daddy presses and ends up with his own screen and documents, etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see that when the scanner makes its way to the iPad, though I'm just speculating.

I'm not sure I see that, at least not in the foreseeable future. There's a lot of competition in that space. Cable is still very fragmented, and even comcast isn't that big if you count the telecoms and satellite players. And now you even have Google Fiber, etc. Venture's interesting, but I don't understand it enough (who does?). I know you're not as big a fan of LINTA, but personally I like it almost as much as LMCA. I think the new trackers could unlock a lot of value, and even if they don't in the short term, it only means more buybacks until the market wakes up. Good path forward either way. Once QVC trades at a multiple similar to HSN, I expect them to merge and bring the margins there to QVC levels and beyond thanks to shared logistics, and then use the HSN FCF now under their control to build more value.

My thinking is similar. If they didn't take the cogen into account before, and now they do, it can't do anything but help. And since the cogen is pretty significant, it should make a significant difference. But who knows? Has the process been entirely co-opted by politics? Did they get the impact they wanted by scaring foreigners who would have invested in DP, giving them more latitude to unload their cotton, so now they can untighten the grip a bit before WTO challenges come? I don't know. It's all so opaque...

Thanks, added it to the wish list :)

It can lead to lower returns, unless you are in businesses where scale improves your economics. I think it's certainly the case for cable/media (CHTR). As for Siri, the market cap and share count of LMCA would go up, but the underlying business (SIRI) would be the same, so that bigger mkt cap size wouldn't change anything. In fact, it would help because LMCA would have control over SIRI's entire free cashflow and could redeploy that wherever is best (buybacks, acquisitions, leverage up, etc). Malone's track record also shows that he's not afraid of spinoffs. If size ever became a disadvantage rather than an advantage, I don't think he'd be shy about cutting some assets loose. Just my 2 cents, FWIW.

http://oddlotinvest.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/barron_s-interviews-seth-klarman.pdf Saw this linked on Twitter earlier today. Sorry, I forgot who it was that linked it :-[

I know people who run it and don't seem too bothered by it, though personally it would bother me. Going from 6 to 7 was a lot of changes in a short period of time, though, and that always requires a longer time to stabilize and patch up than more incremental releases. I wouldn't be surprised if iOS 7.1 had a lot of polish and optimizations that made it run better (on old and new devices). But still, all this is pretty immaterial to Apple's business. If anything, their mistake is not dumping old users fast enough and trying to keep supporting them for much longer than any competitor would. But it does engender customer trust to know you won't be cut loose after a year or whatever...

That makes no sense and addresses none of my points, you just repeat what you already said. Let's agree to disagree.

You're trying way too hard to find "gotchas". Ah-ha! Apple might possibly sell the iPhone 4 in India.. This means that.. It's "depending upon the prestige of its brand name rather than on selling a high quality product." Yeah, because people don't try phones before buying them. Why didn't you say the same thing about the iPhone 4S still being sold? They're basically the same thing except faster and with a better camera, no? Or does that cross your own personal threshold between "crappy" and "good enough", but nobody else can have different criteria and find the 4 good enough? Shouldn't they just be selling the 5S and nothing else? Yeah, they should leave all that money on the table, that would make you happy. Or maybe if they did, you'd complain that Apple has no business sense and doesn't get the most out of its existing products by supplying them to market segments where there's obviously demand for them. And that they're concentrating too much on the super-high-end, ignoring the rest. Can't win, I suppose...

If this rumor is true... The iPhone 4 is not a cheap, compromised product. It's just older. It was their flagship product not long ago and is an access point into the iOS ecosystem, and there's still millions of people who are using it happily today (it supports the last version of its OS, unlike ANY Android phone of the same age). If Apple saw an opportunity to sell it at high margins in India (possibly higher than with more recent products), good for them. They usually sell 3 generations of products, and there they might sell 4. That's bad? Anyone buying it won't expect to run the latest games, obviously, but for the rest they can still have quite a good experience. Just like if they decided to sell older generation iPods in India. Good for them, how is that bad? I'm sure most other smartphone makers wish their older products saw demand for that long. You probably couldn't give away an Android phone 3.5 years after it came out...

Thanks bmichaud!

No real surprise as far as as I can tell. Curious to see how much Liberty Media would contribute and if they'd increase their share of Charter. If both this and Sirius go through, LMCA's market cap will balloon up quite a bit. Here's the official letter from Charter to TWC: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=112298&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1890378&highlight= http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303819704579319114113034726?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303819704579319114113034726.html

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2014/01/13/apple-china-jake-seoul/ A more local perspective on Apple in China. Good read. Clearly Tim Cook's long-term obsession with China has been paying off. It'll be interesting to see what Angela A. can do to further boost the brand by finally building out a China-sized store network there.