Liberty

I believe that too and I've read many of his interviews. But still, I'd love to see his actual track record if anyone has it.

You can define it that way for yourself if you want, but you are an outlier believing that.

Products can be innovative because they provide a better, new user experience, even if all the individual component building-blocks aren't entirely new. It's how they're put together that is innovative (and that often includes decluttering and removing things that they could've put in if they were just trying to have the longest spec sheet). Apple benchmarks itself at the product level, not at the component level (even if they are often leaders there too). I'd rather have the first really good version of something than the first version. If Samsung feels the Gear Watch gives them bragging rights, good for them, but it's still a crap product that will soon be forgotten. Apple wasn't first with personal computers, graphical interfaces, the mouse, digital music players, laptops, smartphones, tablets, etc. But they definitely pushed each category forward significantly and their innovations were later much imitated*, so much so that there's usually a "before & after" era for their main products (before & after the Macintosh, the iPod, the iPhone, the aluminum Macbooks, the iPad, etc). http://www.tapscape.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/iphone4-vs-galaxy-s-head.jpg http://tekgadg.com/static/511fde95e4b0dce195c164ce/511fdf4de4b06333a36348ee/511fdf55e4b06333a36357d3/1320809121133/Android_before_after_iphone_tekgadg.jpg/1000w

I'll join the chorus thanking Dazel for all the work on this idea. I'm very happy to keep holding it for the long-term :) Speaking of Rick Rule, does anyone know what his long-term track record is? I don't think I've ever seen his compounding rate mentioned...

It was mentioned on the conference call on Friday (you should still be able to get a replay: (888) 203-1112 or (719) 457-0820 plus the passcode 2899775). the C shares will be non voting. The rationale stated was that SIRI is already controlled by LMCA with 50%+, so it wouldn't be a loss or a change of control.

He obviously likes SIRI quite a bit. Predictable recurring cash flow + great operational leverage + untapped debt capacity + big NOLs. That's like catnip to Malone. If in a few months CHTR does a big deal (with possibly more to come), the absolute size of Liberty's stake in CHTR could go up quite a bit (and I think they have a cap around 35%, so they could double dip and increase their relative ownership in CHTR too), so SIRI's stake within LMCA would proportionally go back down some. The thing is, those cable deals would probably be a lot harder to pull off without full control of SIRI's FCF and debt capacity. If you want to do big deals, having complete use of a big asset like SIRI isn't an anchor, it's a facilitator, I think. Malone's probably looking a few steps ahead. In such a scenario, it's the other stuff that would be diluted most (LYV, B&N, and all the other misc. things).

I like it. If there's someone that can create lots of value with full control of SIRI's FCF and debt capacity, it's Malone. It also means, if the deal goes through, that SIRI's big buybacks will also increase per share economic ownership in Liberty's other assets (biggest are of course CHTR and LYV) rather than just in SIRI. Not a bad thing since they're high quality and LMCA often sells at a discount because of its complexity. In fact, I wonder if swallowing SIRI might not make Liberty Media harder to value for the market. It's kind of the reverse of what they're doing at LINTA by spinning off QVC/HSN. Is Malone trying to get a new source of cashflow and create a discount in the stock at the same time to make large buybacks easier and more accretive? First priority is probably to help Charter do a big deal, but I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't mind doing what he's done so often in the past again (create more complexity than the market can handle and then buy back a huge chunk at at a discount, later simplify things with spinoffs and watch the market recognize the value).

I am really interested how long Apple can sell smartphones for >600$, when there are alternatives selling for 100$. I made that step 1.5 years ago and found everything i needed for free on Android. (IPhone4->S3) As long as they have a top-quality differentiated products and people trust the brand, like Nike or Porsche. Prices will come down slowly over time, but volumes will go up a lot too. Still hundreds of millions of people without a smartphone or tablet.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21592646-monetary-policy-may-call-end-house-price-party-castles-made-sand

Journalists talk to companies and read their materials, and some of them buy into the spin given to them and repeat it, while others are more skeptical and see through it. This can absolutely be spin, though we can't be sure.

They're also 'assaulting' their own margins on the hardware, if any. I bet if it sold really well at the old price, they wouldn't be lowering it so soon after launch. Maybe they got stuck with a huge inventory after xmas? Sounds like spin to me.

Google Glass and other similar devices will come down in price and be made to look better. The question is more about social acceptance, IMO. You see it when someone takes a phone out. But will people find it creepy that someone could be filming them at any time, from up close, without their knowledge?

Happy new year everyone! :)

In-depth Mac Pro review from the best hardware reviewer, fresh from the oven: http://www.anandtech.com/show/7603/mac-pro-review-late-2013

Someone on another board said that they spoke to ALS management. I can't verify any of this, but this is what they wrote:

I've seen many good interviews. I would be interesting to start a list of the best interviews. A great one is of course the Bruce Berkowitz one. Any others that you guys particularly liked?

As I said before, not everything that is important is surprising. Confirming that Apple users are more profitable is like confirming that BAC's expenses are going down. Not a surprise, but you wouldn't want to see something else. This year, getting smartphones and tablets for xmas was probably the hottest gift possible. If people get a new device and aren't as tempted to go use it right away, that tells you something. This survey is just one more and is consistent with past ones. And looking at Apple's market share in the US, defining that whole segment as "rich" means that your definition of rich is pretty broad. I know a lot of Apple users who certainly wouldn't consider themselves rich... Looking at the market reaction to see if something Apple did was a good move is letting yourself be guided by Mr. Market. The market went down on a lot of Apple announcements that turned out to be great; what will matter in the end is how much cash comes in, and things like China Mobile and NTT will help a lot, as should larger iPhones next year, new products, iOS in the car, etc. I'm more interested in profit share than in market share. As long as the money's there, developers will stay. That's why the Mac has great software and tons of developers despite a smaller market share than windows. Cars have been around for a long time yet BMWs and Porches aren't selling for the same price as Toyotas and Hyundais. Computers have been around for a long time, yet Macs still command a big premium over the little-differentiated razor-thin margin generic PCs from everybody else... How much do people pay for Nike running shoes vs generic ones, etc. It's possible to have a thriving consumer business if you earn people's trust and give them differentiated products of the highest quality. Not at any price, though. The stock is up a lot in past months, and I'm more worried about it going up faster than IV and reducing my MoS than about Samsung suddenly making better products than Apple.

Very interesting line of inquiry, Eric. I wonder if it depends on how much permanent capital you have access to. ie. When starting out with almost nothing, it was better for Hamblin-Watsa to get into the insurance business and use float as a form of 'permanent' capital (not exactly, but acts like it) to be able to invest without having fickle investors who tend to pull out their capital every time there's a downturn or if an idea takes more than a year to play out. Maybe that worked better with their style of investing than taking money from investors who have a short-term view and are scared of deep value stuff. Maybe dealing with that would've crimped their returns quite a bit? But now that they have this very valuable business, it's plausible that they might be able to get better returns in the future if they sold the whole thing except the investing group for a few billions and then used these few billions to run a kind of public hedge fund with their own permanent capital. This way, they wouldn't be forced to invest in things that are sub-optimal just to meet insurance obligations (regulator, claims, etc). Of course, that's only if the insurance operations keep forcing sub-optimal decisions and aren't profitable enough to more than compensate. If they become very profitable, that's another story.

I don't think there's any chances of that happening until Tesla's mass-market model is out in a few years.

http://www.macrumors.com/2013/12/26/ios-remains-more-popular-than-android-among-holiday-shoppers-in-the-u-s/

Thanks for the highlights, Gio! :)

Thanks. The VIC writeup mentions Roper Industries (ROP), which is also on my list of companies to research, along with Ametek (AME). At first glance, they seem to have a model similar to DHR, CFX, TDY, TDG... I'm curious to know if anyone here is familiar with ROP and/or AME and what they think of them. Are they in the same class as other outsider businesses?

Well, you got me down the rabbit hole. Spent part of last night and this morning listening to that conference, and now I found one by Danaher that is just as long: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=82105&p=irol-calendar (click on "past events", it's the one from Dec 12)

Best wishes guys & gals! Don't read too many 10Ks while family is visiting :D

Thanks, I know what I'm doing the next 3 hours... :)