Liberty

That's one that I've studied a lot in the past year, and read pretty much everything I could find on the company + seen/heard/read all the interviews with management out there. Definitely smart people, interesting model, etc. I never pulled the trigger because I can't quite get fully convinced that the model is truly robust, and that the cashflow projections are worth much. In the time I've studied the business, the presentation on the website has changed so often and cash flows have been pushed back (ie. the Royal Coal fiasco) so often that it made me lose some confidence... I still have a strong feeling this could do very well over time, but it would be more speculation on management and the model than anything else, and I haven't been ready to do that yet.

Glad to have you here, Kyle. Cheers!

Too bad we can invest in the law firms.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-11/bank-of-america-agrees-to-settlement-of-merrill-claims.html

Wow. Subtlety is a lost art.

Welcome to the board! :)

Ok, now I have to watch that movie again. See what you've done! 8)

Up almost 13% again right now. Interesting how the upward pressure is so evenly distributed each day rather than having a huge spike and then a plateau at the new equilibrium. Oh well, the ways of Mr. Market are impenetrable. I'm not complaining. edit: It's not even noon and we're already at 177k shares traded. Crazy volumes!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/buffett-railroad-sees-crude-cargo-climbing-40-.html

Based on Google Finance's recent average, we'll probably end the day at 10X normal volume. This stuff always makes me wonder if some inside info has leaked. F.ex., did they just fire up the cogen to test it out and everything worked perfectly? Maybe not, or maybe there's some analyst report that came out with a higher target or whatever.. Not that it matters that much in the long term, but that price action sure is intriguing.

Good points. Whatever it is, it is having an effect. Up another 11.35% right now...

Up to 9.25 on no news that I can find. Seems like tax loss selling was indeed a big factor last year. Those who bought at 7 are already up over 30%. Wish that was the case for me... :-[

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20928354

A move into specialty DP and biorefining can provide higher barriers to entry over time, though nothing like an un-breachable moat. FTP's two mills and wood supply seem well suited to produce very high alpha-DP, which helps. FTP's model probably isn't that easy to reproduce, though. Chad mentioned that they looking basically at all potential mills that could be converted, and ended up with only about 6 that might be suitable at that time. They've got 2, and chances are that some of the other might have turned out to have other fatal flaws or that deals couldn't be made for whatever reason. So other DP capacity can be built or converted, but probably not with the kind of conditions that FTP got for Thurso and LSQ. IMO, FTP's story is more about paying less than what assets are worth once operating, riding a secular wave for DP/cotton, and then trusting that capital will be well allocated into other undervalued assets in the future, or that existing assets will be sold when overvalued. More a jockey stock. As I said multiple times, so far things certainly haven't been going as well as was hoped, but I still believe there's a lot more value in the company than what the market currently sees.

Thanks BG2008. Always good to hear well thought out criticism of an idea!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-03/google-investigation-by-ftc-ends-with-voluntary-changes.html Google Investigation by FTC Ends With Voluntary Changes

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=104364&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1770631&highlight=

There's an interview with Chad here: http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article/3133440/Fortress-Paper-CEO-Chad-Wasilenkoffs-Contrarian-Bet.html Looks like the end of tax loss selling is helping relieve some downward pressure. Stock was up 10% last I checked.

Happy new year everybody! You guys are awesome, have a good 2013! :)

Got it as a gift, can't wait to dig into it. thanks for the rec!

I thought this was an interesting discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4954312 btw, it's in response to this article: http://fernstrategy.com/2012/12/21/the-end-of-x86-an-update/

Thanks.

There's also an excellent one on Elon Musk in that series.

Seems like the ideal scenario would be for the fed to keep the dividend payout very low but be more generous on buybacks (since they can more easily be stopped). If Mr. Market is disappointed by a low dividend and this keeps the stock price low, they'll have more time to buy back under book (or even under TBV), and it'll create more value for remaining share/warrant holders in the long run.

Thanks for posting, interesting stuff.