Liberty

Nygren's Q1 commentary: https://www.oakmark.com/Commentary/Commentary-Archives/Bill-Nygren-Market-Commentary-1Q19.htm

Part 2 of Attia's interview: https://peterattiamd.com/matthewwalker2/

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/05/jeff-bezos-amazon-internet-satellites-4-billion-new-customers.html Similar to SpaceX Starlink.

Steven Pinker op ed on nuclear power: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/06/opinion/sunday/climate-change-nuclear-power.html

https://medium.com/@arielf/finally-rejuvenation-is-a-thing-910d48aa6c6e

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hyundai-motor-tencent-holdings/hyundai-motor-tencent-tie-up-to-develop-self-driving-cars-software-report-idUSKCN1RI05D

Dude, hold your horses. They made a mistake, one way or another. Jobs made plenty of mistakes too. Show me a company that doesn't.

http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2019/04/jpm-2018-annual-report-website-etc.html

I don't think that's what they're doing. Did you read the articles?

I wish I could go, but unfortunately not this year. I've already got my trip booked for the CSU AGM on May 2 (will probably do drinks with whoever wants to come the night before downtown), and two trips to Toronto in less than a month is a bit too much for me... But have fun everyone!

Part 3: https://intrinsicinvesting.com/2019/04/04/the-risk-of-low-growth-stocks-part-3-heighten-risk-to-the-best-companies/

They had a working Airpower in the hands on area when it was annouced, pretty sure Gruber tried it. I think what they probably couldn't get right with it is the safety aspect and the reliability. The physics of charging a bunch of devices at the same time that can be positioned anywhere on a mat aren't exactly straightforward. It's a good sign that they cancelled something the couldn't get right, rather than release a half-baked idea like most other companies would've done.

Good interview with Michael Mauboussin: http://investorfieldguide.com/mmauboussin/ Previous two from the same podcast: http://investorfieldguide.com/mauboussin/ http://investorfieldguide.com/michael/

New acquisition: https://www.prweb.com/releases/constellation_real_estate_group_acquires_mortgage_builder/prweb16208056.htm Looks like it could be a decent-sized one: Revenues estimated at $31.4m

New acquisition at TSS: https://www.totalspecificsolutions.com/about-us/transaction-updates?tid=39 Looks a bit larger than usual. h/t @pearnick

DOW spin is today: http://www.dow-dupont.com/news-and-media/press-release-details/2019/DowDuPont-Announces-Effectiveness-of-the-Form-10-Registration-Statement-for-New-Dow/default.aspx

This should be good. Part one of three: https://peterattiamd.com/matthewwalker1/ Update: I've had a chance to listen to it and it's great. Highly recommended. Can't wait for part 2 and 3.

Maybe "people" like Hussman did, but in 2011 the market valuation was not that extreme. Now it is, look for yourself: https://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php. The market valuation wasn't extreme because people were bearish. It's a complex adaptive system, reflexivity and all that. The market valuation was also so low in the early 80s because people were so bearish and expected the 70s SNAFU to continue. At the time people found all kinds of other excuses not to invest and why it was better to be "defensive", and then later including the CAPE. Lots of disciples of Prem Watsa saw his hedging and deflation bets as his next great trade at the time, etc.

“Leftism begins as compassion for the unfortunate, but ends as contempt for the fortunate. Rightism begins as pride in the past, but ends as fury at the present. Both grow to abhor each other’s values more than they prize their own. Politics devours love, and digests it into hate.”

As a general saving tool over a very long period of time i think that index investing is great, because you will buy more if the index is cheap and less if it is expensive. But when you want to invest a lump sum you should think about the "index" as an investment and have realistic expectations of its return. Right now based on CAPE, market cap/GDP or https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qis there were only 3 times the market was in a similar position to now. 1929, 1968 and 1999/2000. On all three occasions the market return over the next 10 years was awful. Is this time different? Maybe, but i doubt it. In 2011 the market was in line with historical averages. CAPE? You'd have been sitting on cash for many many of the past years if you relied on that. It doesn't take into account changes in the composition of the index over time. Hindsight bias is real. In 2011, people were expecting a second gfc and predicting low returns.

Top investigator Gavin de Becker on Bezos blackmail: https://www.thedailybeast.com/jeff-bezos-investigation-finds-the-saudis-obtained-his-private-information

But are they? People have been saying "new normal of low returns" since about 2011... If it was that easy to predict market returns, everybody would be a successful macro trader. The market goes up about 2/3rd of the time, not always when it seems to make sense that it does and vice versa. Owning a slice of the economy while you learn isn't a bad idea. This isn't market timing either way, just a general idea.

https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/28/how-apple-card-works/

Always a bit funny when a company announces the results of a quarter when the next quarter is over...

At this point focus on keeping your expenses low and saving as much as possible (that'll make a huge difference when you get compound growth going), and learning as much as possible without feeling the need to act on much yet. Just follow your curiosity and remember the Dunning-Kruger effect; even when you start feeling like you know something, you don't know much yet, just keep going, it takes a while. You can put your money in index funds or Berkshire while you learn about various industries, companies, etc. On the expenses/saving site, read this in chronological order (first few posts aren't quite as good, but he finds his voice quickly): https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/all-the-posts-since-the-beginning-of-time/ One thing I did years ago is I read pretty much all the archives of this forum thread by thread. A lot you can just skim, but there's a lot of good dicsussions to be found and things (links to articles, interviews, talks, etc) to build on too. I also suggest focusing on learning about how to think and how the mind works. Cognitive biases, etc. Some places to start: -Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman -Influence by Cialdini -Rationality: From AI to Zombies by Eliezer Yudkowsky -Stumbling on Happiness by Dan Gilbert -Munger's speech on The Psychology of Human Misjudgement and The Art of Stockpicking