LC

Have they partnered with Amazon yet to deliver/pickup refills yet? Would make my life so much easier...

Thanks for your thoughts 8)

Another resource to check the price of a competitor's cutting patterns: http://filmvinyldesigns.com/patterns 2014 BMW 5 series runs about $235

I'm having a hard time killing this thesis. What are your thoughts on the potential impact of 3M releasing a competing product? At the high end of the market, what are your thoughts on the trend of bulk installs vs kit installs?

Thanks for posting.

Defense wins championships

Well, if you believe management, their revenue mix should flip from (if I'm recalling the #s from their presentation correctly) 70% domestic/30% international to 30/70.

Finally, there is word that 3M is releasing a new product, other players coming online who tout their product being superior to Xpel & Suntek, etc. Not as uncompetitive of a space as I first thought. Good thread here: http://www.tintdude.com/forum/index.php/topic/76346-premium-shield-xpel-3m-where-to-start-please-help/

Also, just got off the phone with an installer in NJ who recommended Suntek and Xpel as the two companies at "the top of their game". He criticized the Avery Dennison product (Nano Fusion) as being difficult to install. "For every one good lay, there are two bad ones". He recommended the Suntek product over Xpel. Xpel he believed was more brittle and easy to tear during installation. It requires some stretching of the film during installation, and if not done perfectly, would easily tear. I guess the insinuation is that Suntek did not have this problem. He also downplayed Xpel's 10 year warranty, saying most people did not have their car for 10 years, etc. Finally he guided me to this website (http://www.tintdude.com/forum/index.php/forum/321-paint-protection-film-clear-bra-forum/) for reviews from professional installers and how they feel about the various products available. Hopefully this will be of aid to someone here.

XPEL definitely operates in the US. (http://locator.xpel.com/search/clearbra_installers/United_States) Regarding the marketplace, here is a review I found (disclaimer: I am not sure if this covers all the films available): Which brings me to the point of this thread, and that is to share my experience of the different PPF products as I have had personal experience of Armorfend, 3M ScotchGuard, Ventureshield Ultra, and most recently XPel Ultimate film. Armorfend Armorfend is, imho, very old school technology: This was installed on my silver grey CSL a few years ago - it was very thick, it was obvious, and it went yellow after a while. Was it effective at doing its job? Yes, but it was a relatively crude product. I am unsure if it can be sourced today, so it is safe to eliminate this as an option for anyone thinking about it. I eventually had the Armorfend replaced. 3M Scotchguard 3M ScotchGuard was touted a few years ago, and I also had my Polar Silver GT3 filmed in this about 5 years ago. It was a complete frontal kit with other selective areas filmed including the doors, sills, rear spoiler, bumper etc. It was one of the earliest 911s to be filmed in the UK, and the overall quality of 3M was superb: it was shiny, it was very durable. The only downside was that it could not quite cover the entire bonnet in one piece because 3M did not manufacture it (initially) in a wide enough film to cover the entire width of the 996 bonnet as it approached the windscreen. Against Polar Silver, the film disappeared completely and you could only see it when you looked very closely and knew where to look. It was durable, and despite many trackdays the film never let a stone through. Ventureshield Recently, I decided to try Ventureshield Ultra on the recommendation of many friends who had had their cars filmed in VS. The most remarkable aspect of Ventureshield is how thin it is. It is noticeably thinner and more pliable than 3M, and it is this quality that allows it to be easily applied and 'wrapped' around body panel edges making for what should be an invisible application. This time the donor car was a Basalt Black 911 and the car was to have a complete wrap front to rear, and there were no film 'joins' anywhere on the car. This was going to be a challenge! The quality of the install was ok with all edges wrapped, but the film itself fell far below my expectations. Ventureshield film is reasonably glossy, but probably less so than 3M Scotchguard. Not great then. Importantly, the film evidenced flaws: both in the film itself as visible particles, and because it is so thin, the film showed stretch marks which looked unsightly and very obvious on a black car. Worse yet, the film failed on it's primary purpose: protection. Because it is so thin, a stone went straight through the film and marked the paint underneath shortly after it was installed. Despite being highly recommended, the product is mediocre at best, and I decided to have the VS film removed. XPel XPel Ultimate is the latest product in PPF, and is touted as the world's first 'self healing' film. XPel demonstrate the self-healing properties on their website - , and I can attest to trying that test myself (on a test patch of XPel, not my car!) and seeing the scratches disappear in front of my own eyes. It was remarkable. After being disappointed with Ventureshield, I decided it might be worth trying XPel. Full coverage too, so the results can be a direct comparison to Ventureshield. XPel is thicker than VS, and it has a much smoother and more even topcoat than VS. It is glossy, and it is very even. The film has negligible flaws in the film itself - in fact, across the entire car, I can't see any flaws in the film itself. Unlike VS, it does not show any stretch marks, so the films is invisible against the paint. The combination of being a thicker film (compared to VS) and the very smooth/even topcoat suggests that it will be more resilient to marking and stone chips than VS. The application itself is superb, and 'full coverage' is genuinely full: everything is covered - more than Ventureshield covered - and they also covered the rear louvred spoiler. XPel does not cover the car in one piece, in particular from A-pillar through the rear quarter. There is a join, but you really need to look for it very very carefully to see it. When I first looked for it (and knowing where to look), I could not find it - it required a second and more detailed look to find it. The headlights are also covered, but in a different XPel Headlight film that is much thicker especially designed for headlights. http://www.xpel.com/dealer/member/documents/mkt304...

What are your thoughts on a company like valeant, which is more like a royalty stream on already developed drugs?

I believe they also offer the machinery to cut the film as well. So how it works, they sell/lease this machinery to retail outlets, I believe with pretty poor margins, then continuously update the machine's software with the specifications for new car models. Then they also sell the rolls of film to the outlet as well. So the great margins come from the renewal of film inventory, fees, etc. it's more of a franchise model than anything.

Also worth noting is 3M's offering in this field is woefully old, and the playing field isn't large enough to warrant them trying to come in and squash Xpel. Even if they do, the product itself has to be custom installed for each vehicle. Hence the fat margins, but for customers with luxury cars, it's worth it to spend more for a better job with better material than use a cookie cutter 3M product.

I certainly see the trend. Every personal finance blog/forum I've seen of late has the standard operating procedure of recommending passive indexing. Every time I am asked for advice I recommend three options: dedicating your time and energy to individual stock selection after reading the standard volume of value literature (a very unpopular option), investing with someone you know and trust, who has a track record of success and transparency (something not common), or vanguard index funds. My fear of the eventuality is that, people will make the smart choice initially. Put their money in SPY and forget about it. Until of course the next panic hits, the media blasts fear and emotion from the rooftops, and human nature takes over.

I'm realizing I'm too dumb to do things like this! Outside of using LEAPs opportunistically for non-recourse leverage...I just stick to my best convictions.

I always buy used and American. Parts are available and cheap, and tons of resources are available to do regular maintenance yourself. One day I hope to move to somewhere with warm weather, buy an old ford or GM convertible, and fix it up. Fun, inexpensive, and a good value!

I weight my portfolio by the relative percentage discount from intrinsic value.

That sucks...seems like one of the downsides of such a protected industry. Don't worry, here in the US the banks will easily take your money, it just might take longer to get it back...

I'd sell the pair of scissors because I have one at home that works perfectly well.

At the end of the day an investment in Apple depends on what you perceive Apple to be. If you believe them to be a company that will continue producing only smartphones, tablets and computers you have good reason to avoid the company. Their growth under this scenario is much more limited and at risk. If you look at them as a consumer products company that can expand into many different verticals their growth prospects are much brighter. My thoughts exactly. Their cash and cash from operations, along with the talent and culture of their organization, give them great exposure to future consumer product trends. Their fervent customer-base (IMHO, the most loyal in the industry) gives them a ready made foundation to sell to. Their history of successfully creating consumer products further validates (but is not the foundation of) this viewpoint. They are a lifestyles company. Just my .02

UHAL WDFC IPAR some bigger guys like PM, BAC, the payment processors, the CPGs.

Any update on the date?

I'm thinking I'm going to switch my exposure to the options. The JAN 16 40s are at about $9.50. Sears will need to compound at 14% per annum for the next two years for these options to have value at expiration. If you'd rather use Eric's metrics, cost of leverage is 16.5% per annum. At this point of accelerated liquidations, it should be very clear by 2016 if value is be unlocked faster than it's being destroyed (I'm sure people have been saying that for years now, but we're just recently seeing store closures on a large scale). I'm willing to "pay" this 14% to lower my risk in the event of being wrong while leveraging my upside. Anyone want to tell me why I'm stupid for doing this? In two years, will the RE have lost that much value?

Thanks very much, cheers :)

Does anyone know of public (free) tools to get a quick glance at the equity prices globally? Pretty much as a way to zone-in on countries where good prices might exist for stable businesses. TIA! LC