LC

Doesn't this thinking assume that SHLD will continue trading up and down between, say, 40 and 60 or so? I mean, if you are long the stock and think it's worth, say, 80/share and think eddie can keep growing it from there....why risk selling @ 60 or writing calls at 60 and losing the entire upside which is the basis for your thesis?

to find undervalued stocks :P

Do some of the most knowledgeable members here think SYW is an actual plan to compete in the online retail market or just the easiest way to liquidate whatever inventory he's got sitting in these empty stores before he sells/rents the real estate?

Welcome to the forum! I think the dust is produced regardless as a result of using scrap metals in the EAF process...these scrap metals were previously galvanized and now as they undergo the EAF process, the old zinc is separated, then re-constituted in the dust-collection process into zinc oxide, which is what horsehead etc use to produce zinc. Disclaimer: This opinion came from wikipedia in the last hour, so it is most definitely simplified and may very well be flat out wrong (if so, please someone correct me!)

I echo wellmont's statement...unless you have an investment guaranteed to pay out in 18 months...perhaps some corporate bond that you can make the spread on...but is it worth it for a few hundred bucks?

I think Churchill sums it up best: Many forms of Government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.

In Canada the drinking age is lower! :) I like that idea...if the govt really wants to help all these students out, your way sounds like it is one of the better ways to go about it.

I think the root cause is the tendency within humans to eat the candy now and not think about the stomach-ache later...which is also what keeps value investors in business. Does a terrible government policy of "guaranteeing" the loans enabling predatory lenders add fuel to this fire of human nature? Of course...but to me, I don't believe this is a valid excuse for people complaining about their student loan debt. Gosh, in a perfect world lenders absolutely should be incentivized to properly handle this situation. Most could go home at night and feel a lot better about themselves, too. It baffles my mind why the current situation remains from a legislative perspective. Well, aside from there not being enough blood in the stone to "incentivize" enough politicians to change it.

Amazon to launch 'Pantry': http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2013/12/12/amazon-pantry/4001707/ The service will be targeted at existing members of Amazon's Prime shipping program. It will launch with about 2,000 products typically found in the center of grocery stores, such as cleaning supplies, kitchen paper rolls, canned goods like pet food, dry grocery items like cereal and some beverages. Amazon will let Prime shoppers put as many of these items into a set sized box, up to a specific weight limit. If the products fit and they don't exceed the maximum weight, Amazon will ship the box for a small fee. Wonder if it will actually generate profits or just keep Fedex/UPS busy? :)

I don't disagree, but nobody held a gun to anyone's head and made them take out a loan. Blaming the school/government/society isn't going to change that fact.

What twacowfca said...It brought me pleasure to always talk about value funds...and then spend time researching the holdings of those funds! And, congrats! :D

I think his reasoning is sound though...that only during an almost pure economic standstill do zinc prices fall down to around .50/lb. and if horsehead's cost of production is .40-.50/lb, that is still not a complete death-knell for the company. even if zinc prices fall lower, let's say to .30/lb, can anyone produce? take a look at the applications for zinc: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zinc#Applications -Galvanizing (55%) -Alloys (21%) -Brass and bronze (16%) -Miscellaneous (8%) these are not fly-by-night uses (although they may be dependent on the construction cycle). also take a look at the 5 year zinc price vs the 5 year stock levels (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html) price has held relatively stable in the last year despite a steady decline in the stock levels of zinc, which suggests a level of increased demand. but all this comes back to horsehead being that low-cost producer that will operate regardless of the price movement of zinc. so you have that moat (low-cost) plus the asymmetric risk-reward from movement in zinc prices, plus what looks to be a competent or at least conservative management team from a capital allocation standpoint (no debt from 2008-2012).

Perhaps he is withholding his full idea...but I don't think that just because the thesis as stated is simple means he must of course be holding something back. A large position as a $ of aum does not necessitate a complicated thesis.

you're right about most apps: two-weeks or so of use and then people forget it. my fear is that given the influx of all these free apps, customer preferences will permanently change away from in-person meetings, which is an important part of WTW's success. probably an unfounded fear, as people who REALLY want to lose weight will follow the program and do what is proven is necessary to actually lose the weight.

Was speaking with Brandon from moatology.com and he mentioned he attended a micro-cap conference in LA and met with FHCO management (OB Parish & the CFO), he had this to say: '"I am not so sure Cupid can displace them. Cupid is an Indian company with a male condom business and they have very little capital to scale up and go after FHCO's customers. They also added that to sell their product they would have to engage in all of the training and education FHCO did over the years since it operates slightly different compared to the FC2. OB also shared that their largest public buyer desires to ultimately have female condoms represent 10% of the public sector condom demand. This would put female condom demand around 1B units annually and FHCO captures 100% of the market, shareholders could do very well." If demand continues to increase from the NGOs etc. I am interested again... I'm not sure how much I buy the argument vs. Cupid put forth by management...but Cupid does file on the BSE so we can obtain their financial results to see what is accurate. But interesting point regarding the education component. It is an interesting theory regarding moats: when competing products are "inconvenient" to learn how to use (as there are small differences in actually implementing/using the product) that the consumer simply pays the small premium to save themselves the hassle. This, combined with the factor that this is a very personal product, so women/couples are apt to continue using what they find comfortable and the NGOs supplying these know that. They want them to be used, so they will make it as convenient as possible for women to use them. Interesting incentives and behavioral dynamics going on. (unrelated: we also spoke about Chris Reed of REED and that business if anyone is interested I can PM you his email or you can get his contact info from his website)

Read the MD&A quickly...didn't notice anything that seemed like it could be a competitive moat, and I don't feel comfortable investing in this as a "cigar butt" given the capital allocation infinitee00 mentioned.

One of my accounts is with Sogotrade.com $5 trades...or you can pre-purchase trades @ $3/each in lots of 5. Allow tendering via email, I believe for a $30 or $35 fee though.

Thanks for sharing this :)

How are you investing in timber? Buy land and harvest regularly...it provides a great workout too! :D

Never underestimate the desire of the political classes to actually get to use all of these toys that they've spent all these years building. That's another good one...you have this entire group of people who strongly identify with each other, and they spend a large part of their lives (and invest a lot of their self-identity/self-worth) into something, and then there comes a point in time when they want to actually use that something, less it go to waste and ruin the image of themselves they have created...very hard to convince that person/those people not to do so after the emotional investment they have made.

If donations of kidneys for kidney transplants were a negative option upon death in the US instead of a positive option, that would be even better. I just want to make sure I am not misunderstanding you....do you mean that having kidney donations as the "default" option upon death would be preferable (in which case I wholeheartedly agree).

isn't this like the 8th "next buffett"? damn i should just give up now and buy the SPY...

I believe all of the above (with the exception of possible extinction) were widely believed before both of the major world wars in the last century. Agreed. Don't overestimate the decisions of humans in large groups.

I'm not sure if an MBA will turn into the textile industry...but as a student studying for an MBA, I am finding that the networking opportunities are more valuable than the classroom experience. But maybe that's because I've read so much Buffett & Munger, for some other students the coursework is all new to them so they get more value from it.

Oh boy! Thanks for the link, Liberty...for what it's worth, my fiancee agrees with my results :D