LC

But of course, a majority of that money is retirement/savings/pensions/401ks etc. So that money doesn't just all come out at once. In special circumstances (2008) it might, but over the long-term, those SPY positions are slowly sold off, transferred to bonds, etc. as people age, as the population bracket below them pours more into SPY to plan for their retirement. It's constantly rolling itself over with the population.

Because mastercard can go on earning healthy returns on capital for many, many years. The net-net is one puff and out. So why waste the opportunity in a fire sale to buy used cigar butts when you can buy nice box of cubans at a slightly higher price?

add 6 zeros to the end of your numbers, make it a one-time game, and the majority of people's answers will change. as constructive said, you need the utility curve to really answer it.

IMHO they also tuned down one of the high quality components of old IBM made Thinkpads. The newer Lenovo ones are not as durable.

I always recommend the intelligent investor to people who ask me first. Then, if they come back for more, I go through the value classics. Some discount brokers will let you start with a few hundred bucks and charge 5/trade. So with 1000 bucks you can take a few positions to actually learn by doing. Good luck and welcome to the forum!

Yep, that's the thesis. Couldn't have said it better. I didn't average down yet because I believe as you say this year will be stressed and the short term market will leave the stock left for dead. I could be wrong but given other, attractive opportunities, I am not reaching for reasons to average down just yet.

If we assume inflation and GDP growth are relatively lockstep, I'd say around 500/share. Otherwise, 350-400. Their numbers (ROA, growth in BV) are nice, but how much is attributed to net inflation is my question.

Good topic. IMHO reality falls somewhere in the middle. The true greats don't get there doing something they can only tolerate. But, like you quote, for 99% it is not reality. Invert: under what circumstances would you do something you truly hated? I've worked in despicable environments before, I would never do so again, I'd rather starve and go homeless. I think for most people, there is a middle path.

Agreed...probably attractive at these prices, we'll see if it goes lower. Stock price aside, they still need time to formulate (or really, implement) a new marketing and business strategy to leverage their brand.

shoes are much easier to size than a shirt or suit jacket, however. in fact, most people don't know if they would need narrow or wide shoes because they don't look much different. compare that to a shirt with the neck an inch too big, or a jacket with the sleeves an inch too long, and you immediately feel out of place.

Curious...what if Amazon does this. Just "rent" space on Amazon to vendors. Amazon is essentially real estate + fulfillment. Split the company into 2. Charge rent to stay on Amazon's website real estate, pay more "rent" + a fee to have your product stored in Amazon's warehouse & fulfilled by Amazon. No inventory problems on Amazon's side, as those product are still generating 'rent'. They already do this. And that's why I don't run a global retail organization :)

Curious...what if Amazon does this. Just "rent" space on Amazon to vendors. Amazon is essentially real estate + fulfillment. Split the company into 2. Charge rent to stay on Amazon's website real estate, pay more "rent" + a fee to have your product stored in Amazon's warehouse & fulfilled by Amazon. No inventory problems on Amazon's side, as those product are still generating 'rent'.

Pot has been used by millions of people pretty much ever since the 1960's. Thats 50 years. The 1960s? Way earlier than that (well, I guess not millions of people)! I've got stories passed down in my family about back in the 1700s & 1800s some family members were engaged in transporting hemp & weed from the east coast to Europe. I've never heard a convincing argument against the illegality of marijuana.

I usually leave out changes to working capital. Working capital in most businesses changes over time...in reality working capital is a function of the business operations and usually we want those businesses to be consistently functioning (i.e. renewing working capital as the business uses it). You wouldn't want a grocery story to have shrinking average levels of inventories over time (i.e., not being able to move X amount of inventory so reducing average inventory on hand - a sign the business is decaying), so I usually don't add the "cash" provided by reduced inventories either. Same with the other working capital accounts. My usual calculation: NI + D&A + One-time (Extraordinary - only if they are truly extraordinary) charges - Capex I don't really distinguish that much between growth and maint capex as much as other investors do. If I'm investing in a small, growing company, "growth" capex is part of that. To some companies, "normalized" environments include "growth capex". Sometimes (take Packer's example over in the Intralot thread) capex is a direct function of revenue. They win a contract, they pay capex as a result. So in that case it makes more sense to get an idea of "normalized" capex.

The SEC filings have already been done...I think with a bit of thought and some googling we can all keep track of Sanjeev's outstanding progress. Congrats on your success! :)

Well, retailers are trying to change the problem of clothing. I can't find a link off the top of my head, but there are services here in NYC that will take a 3-D image of your body shape and have clothing fitted to you. So for a one time appointment you get fitted clothes at a reasonable price. I agree though, the physical world of retail won't die. People like to go and shop. We've been doing it since the early days of civilization. What else, are we all just going to sit home all day? Work from home, shop from home, watch movies at home, watch sports at home, interact with your friends at home, etc. etc.? At some point, human nature wants to go out and be social. And no, by social I don't mean facebook and twitter! :D

I looked at this again because the FCF yield is just so juicy. One thing holding me back is this passage about the CEO from Wikipedia: German authorities' investigations in the Stasi archives found a 350-page report referring to agent "Rocco" ("953/63"). It was alleged that "Rocco" was the code name for Sokratis Kokkalis, allegedly recruited on 25 January 1963.[2] Kokkalis was alleged to have subsequently bribed Greek officials in order for the national telecommunications company of Greece to purchase East German telecommunications equipment.[2][3][4] Kokkalis was investigated and gave evidence on allegations about his possible involvement in espionage, fraud and money laundering and two alleged misdemeanours of soliciting and giving bribes.[4] Eventually, there was no indictment, due to the statute of limitations having expired. The Greek businessman was also involved in allegations about fraud in Russia, where his company, Intralot, had sold lottery equipment, technological know-how and software.[4] No formal charges were ever filed for any Intralot representative.[5] It's an odd situation...because my understanding is that these types of business practices are par for the course in some countries and industries. That's just reality. Does anyone have any anecdotal evidence (or warning) about investing in these types of situations, where this business practice is a widespread norm and doesn't mean the guy is a crook? Have things gone "according to plan" or hiccups along the way?

Three cheers to Mr. Munger! :)

PhoneGap -- concurrent release of Android, iOS, Windows Surface, and BBRY (for Prem) Perhaps we should design an app that allows people to fight about which smartphones are better. We can charge them a premium if they want to use stylized text such as larger fonts, bold, italics, colors etc :)

Thanks Paolo.

Real estate consulting, non profit finance, currently an MBA student.

Not really sure why it's down...my best guess is having something to do with anticipating the Fed raising rates.

This is a bit old but I just got around to it...I really enjoy listening to Mr. Marks speak. He is funny! Even better, the central theme of the talk was about ethics. He was the right man to give the speech. One of the quotes I remember: "Think for a minute...in American corporations, how many AAA's are there? There are four...not very many: JNJ, MS, XOM, ADP...how many AAA's were created in mortgage-backed securities in the years leading up to the crisis? Not 4 not 40...over 1600!" Although I wasn't a huge fan of his book (despite agreeing with the majority of the content) I plan on re-reading it.

20F I believe. LC, Thanks. I couldn't find the 20F for 2012 on the Fiat website. All I find is the annual report. Ah sorry...I don't think they are required to file a 20F anymore as they are not listed on the NYSE. Only the ADR is. So I believe it is just the annual report and the mid-year (transitional?) report. But their I/R page has regular information releases that are more current as well.

Finished 40% for the year. I am satisfied with my analysis and finding undervalued stocks, but I have to work on my technical and emotional skills in terms of trading. So much thumb sucking! For example, SHLD calls I was down 50% at one point...and the fact that they were so cheap...I should have purchased more but I was fearful. And to make matters worse, I put in a limit order to sell my entire position at a 20% gain. At the time, I was so angry for purchasing them at what seemed like a high premium that I simply wanted to exit with an acceptable gain. Then, I forgot I put in the limit order and did not cancel it as the share price was rising. Definitely my most embarrassing moment of the year...very rookie mistake.