LC

Eric, I think the various threads and posts with questions about your trading methods are evidence that you do in fact have a discernible skill. The fact that you can take an undervalued mega cap and turn a 30% return into 100+%...as well as constructing your frankenstein portfolios by trading upside for downside...I think that is skillful.

I am really interested how long Apple can sell smartphones for >600$, when there are alternatives selling for 100$. I made that step 1.5 years ago and found everything i needed for free on Android. (IPhone4->S3) As long as people will buy them! :)

Congrats on your side business' results! In response to your quoted section...BRK might fit the bill!

I don't see what his personal decisions have to do with anything. He could have gone to North Korea for all I care. He exposed a fact that a branch of the government is spying on citizens without their knowledge. What he does afterwards is of no consequence to the validity of that fact. I don't know the constitutional legalities behind whether the NSA is "legally" allowed to do what it is doing. I frankly don't care. What I do know is that the government shouldn't be collecting this type of information in the way that it is doing so. In my opinion, bringing up any other issue related to this individual is just avoiding having to deal with this fact.

Same with puts...you need to be right about timing, and premium paid.

20F I believe.

I agree! And, it jives with my favorite line (in my signature) of Buffett's! ;D

Good read, thank you for posting.

Good find, plato. I wonder if anything can be done now to access that cash...

The more I think about it...when we talk about risk-adjusted returns...it's difficult to really standardize. Let's take Nate since he is the topic of conversation right now...I could never run a portfolio like his! For me, it just does not jive with how my mind works. Let's say Nate and I ran the same portfolio, identical stocks, weightings, everything. I would consider his risk-adjusted returns much higher! He is more comfortable with this portfolio strategy. It is less risky to be in his hands than in mine. I might achieve the same results, but it would be much more risky. I think my thoughts echo those who say that investing truly has to match each individual. Otherwise it is just too risky...and trying to standardize that number to compare between managers...maybe it can be done partially, but I don't think one percentage can ever really capture all the risks.

Marchionne can play a truly global game now. He can move capacity around the world, opportunistically. It gives him a stronger hand within Europe. He is already consolidating the manufacturing base on which Chrysler and Fiat produce. It will give him full access to Chrysler's balance sheet/cash flow. He can build out from Brazil with more resources at his fingertips. And he got the deal done for a relatively good price. Really good business decisions on his part...Fiat is lucky to have him! I would suggest listening to his conference call from about a month ago to get a glimpse into his character and intelligence, when you go about evaluating him as a CEO.

I'm not sure I agree. I think this year was a bit crazy due to (1) the market in general going up up up and (2) the special-ness of BAC warrants. A good portion of most returns here were probably due to BAC and the 300+ page thread devoted to it, as well as Eric's insights regarding the cost of leverage between the common/warrants/options. This led to a lot of people moving into the options...hence the large upsides. I think most of the time this board is focused on cheap stocks. Packer's posts are a great example of this. I don't think he's ever suggested something trading at a EBITDA multiple > 6 ;D Finding cheap businesses and returning 20%/year during normal conditions is a skill more envious in my eyes than buying LEAPs during an awesome year for the market in general...just my 2 cents!

Earlier than I was anticipating...maybe Mr. Marchionne wanted to start out the new year on the right foot! Deal seems pretty fair. I am happy they are paying under $5b. The extended payments of 700m also lightens the burden a bit as well...they can fund that from operations over the next few years.

Happy New Year everyone! Thanks as always to Sanjeev and all the kind people on this board. To a happy and healthy 2014! ;D

He's just so rich that the only thing he can put major money to work in (with good future prospects and economics) is energy. Demand for energy isn't going down, not in this lifetime or the next. Solar, fossil fuels, all will benefit from increased demand. Hell, he may be following Munger's logic...generating as much renewable energy in the US for sale within the US.

It's my understanding that the value of subs is embedded in the market price of the equity, so adding them would be double counting.

Share your uploader name on Youtube perhaps? Found the way to do it (click the playlist you want to share, there is a "share" button which will promp you with a link. Here is my playlist of value investing videos I've accumulated: http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLV-6FPX1lkKIou3WDcZnm_BtMZUUj4tm2

I there a way to share a playlist? I have a list of about 80 YouTube videos and I would be happy to share the list, if possible.

Fiat. I think a deal with Chrysler gets done later in 2014. To the market, I am about 15pct cash. I don't really hedge, IMHO cash is the best hedge.

http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/business-brains/icon-doug-morris-chairman-and-ceo-of-sony-music-entertainment/ Morris calls the incident his “favorite” mistake because it taught him a lesson about “how to really get the best out of an album and my own mistake, which I was happy to acknowledge because I was so wrong,” he said. The approach to obstacles sets Morris apart. “People make mistakes. Everyone makes mistakes,” he said. “As long as the mistakes aren’t intentional, there’s no reason to be upset by them.” This attitude, coupled with his interest in treating employees well, has given Morris an uncommon ability to hire and develop executive talent. “You want to set an example by always being there, and then you want to make them feel proud of their accomplishments,” he said. “You want to overpay them a little bit. But the truth is, you want to create an environment where people are motivated, are happy. There is no yelling in this company. The idea is never to give anyone a bad night, any reason to worry about Monday. That’s really important.”

I am certainly not an expert on FFH like many of the board members here are, but the way I view it is that the insurance operation offers two distinct benefits: 1. Increase the scale of Fairfax. This enables them to get better terms, participate in bigger deals, etc. etc. etc. Akin to increasing the AUM were they a hedge fund only. 2. Optionality. Eric mentions the 15% average. IMHO that is a 15% in relatively bearish times, or when constrained by the hedges. What happens if/when the tide changes? So if they can "break even" at 15% during the worst of times, then the insurance leverage should add some value during better times.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from my friends and family to yours, everyone! ;D

I am having a hard time as well...I'm taking out the "cheapness" screening tools (low P/E, P/B, etc.) and looking for quality company, then using my own analysis to determine cheapness. So I've been screening for sales growth, acceptable debt levels, and decent margins. Then I go from there, and see if any stock price increases this year has been due to p/e expansion along with the S&P or due to continuously improving business.

Packer, For the high cash flow business model, typical of levered firms such as equipment leasing/telecoms etc. I know you like when those businesses operate within a protected environment such as in Hawaii or Alaska, or under a strong regulatory environment in the case of AIQ. This strikes me as having a moat around those cash flows, so they can safely handle their level of debt. Have you looked at the same business model but replacing this niche/protective environment with the benefits of huge scale? Do you think the same results can be obtained? Something along the lines of URI where they don't operate in a protected environment but instead benefit from some economies of scale instead. I think it is harder to find a bargain this way because these large, scaled-up companies are more visible to investors/analysts and have a higher probability of being more fairly priced. I am wondering your thoughts and what your experience has taught you in this case. Also, what is on your Christmas list? ;D

That is what I first thought, but I believe they moved their headquarters and listing from Greece to London!